Democratic Freak States Holy Saturday results thread (1st caucuses begin @1pmET)

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I've noticed that 538 isn't covering these contests. Why no love for the Pacific states, Nate?

538 dislikes Sanders. They think the Dem contest is already over and show more interest in the GOP race because Trump.

lol. They don't "dislike Sanders", they just accept the reality that the race is over.

Not necessarily, even by their math. Right now, he's at 89% of his delegate goal according to 538. After today, he'll likely be at 91-92%, unless something surprising happens in Hawaii.  Granted, he still has the Superdelegate problem, but that could change.

Using a percentage really downplays the extent he is in the hole. According to 538, after tonight he "should" be down about 50 delegates if he was on track. Instead, he'll be down by 230+.

That is true. Using a percentage can be deceiving if you're not keeping in mind the ever-decreasing number of delegates left.  But the fact remains that he's making up some ground tonight. It likely won't be enough, but Clinton certainly isn't at a >99% chance of winning at this point.

[Flake]

All of Snohomish in, Bernie wins it with 76.1%.

Obama won Snohomish with 65% in 2008.

[/]

Do we think Sanders will still end up above 70% in WA?

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Any updates on Hawaii?

[Frodo]

Any updates on Hawaii?

Not until midnight (EST), apparently.  

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Are we ever going to be able to get a geographic breakdown of Alaska?

No

Any updates on Hawaii?

No

[Gass3268]

Sanders keeps inching back up in King County, now at about 67% with 12/17 in. I imagine this is this the City of Seattle finally coming in.

[Mehmentum]

I've noticed that 538 isn't covering these contests. Why no love for the Pacific states, Nate?

538 dislikes Sanders. They think the Dem contest is already over and show more interest in the GOP race because Trump.

lol. They don't "dislike Sanders", they just accept the reality that the race is over.

Not necessarily, even by their math. Right now, he's at 89% of his delegate goal according to 538. After today, he'll likely be at 91-92%, unless something surprising happens in Hawaii.  Granted, he still has the Superdelegate problem, but that could change.

Using a percentage really downplays the extent he is in the hole. According to 538, after tonight he "should" be down about 50 delegates if he was on track. Instead, he'll be down by 230+.

That is true. Using a percentage can be deceiving if you're not keeping in mind the ever-decreasing number of delegates left.  But the fact remains that he's making up some ground tonight. It likely won't be enough, but Clinton certainly isn't at a >99% chance of winning at this point.

Personally, I never had her at >99%.  My highest ranking for her was like a 95%, which is like the combined probabilities of her having serious health problems, her being indicted, some other major scandal, or Sanders somehow pulling off a miracle.

And that's where the race still is, 'Clinton wins unless something huge happens'.   The Washington result doesn't significantly change anything because unfortunately for Sanders, there are no more big caucus states left.  There's just Wyoming and North Dakota, which if he wins them both by 60 points will net him like 25 delegates.  He still needs 200 more delegates, the same hole he was in after Super Tuesday, and he can't rely on caucuses to close the gap.

So where does he make up the delegate gap?  

The midest? Clinton has won most midwestern primaries, the best Sanders has done is a 2 point victory.  Winning by 2 points in PA, IN, and WI isn't going to be enough.  

New England?  CT and RI are more like Massachusetts than Vermont, and winning them doesn't get you much either.  

The Northeast?  Maryland, D.C., Delware, New Jersey all have large African American populations, and should be among Clinton's best remaining contests.  New York is Clinton's home state, even if Sanders somehow pulls off a win there, he needs to do better.

The territories? Don't make me laugh.

That's why all of these 'Sanders' path to victory!' maps have him winning California by like 30 points.  Even though Arizona and Nevada would suggest that California is at least competitive.

[Shadows]

I've noticed that 538 isn't covering these contests. Why no love for the Pacific states, Nate?

538 dislikes Sanders. They think the Dem contest is already over and show more interest in the GOP race because Trump.

lol. They don't "dislike Sanders", they just accept the reality that the race is over.

lol. Sanders gets landslide victories in Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Washington, with likely victories in Hawaii and Wisconsin.

THE RACE IS OVER, NOTHING TO LOOK AT FOLKS.

Is it not? After tonight, Hillarys lead dips to 240ish delegates. Which states does Sanders have left where he can make up such a huge delegate difference?

Hillary is overwhelmingly likely to win the nomination, but the race is not over. Its not like the rest of the states don't matter, they do matter, they matter because they are a measure of how strong the progressive movement is within the Democratic party. It matters because there's a wing that will probably be called the 'Sanders' wing that should be much more influential then they were in the past.  A strong finish in this primary season can mean a lot, even if he's not the nominee.

I think you took "the race is over" a little too seriously. It is over in the sense that Hillary is going to be the nominee, but you are correct that a lot can still be learned from the remaining states. But to people who only care about an overall victor, it makes sense to have tuned out after March 15th. That said, you would expect 538 to be interested in patterns and results even if they won't effect the overall outcome, given the type of site it is.

No1 has said Sanders is winning this race - And 538 is shi* & always was. It's for kids who don't understand stuff, grown ups shouldn't be discussing about this!

[RI]

Reddit has 6 precincts from Hawaii giving Sanders 69% of votes so far.

[Mr. Morden]

That said, you would expect 538 to be interested in patterns and results even if they won't effect the overall outcome, given the type of site it is.

They haven't been as religious about doing live blogs for all of the Saturday primary days.  They want us to think that they're regular people, who have things to do on Saturdays.  Even though we already know that they're nerds.

[Landslide Lyndon]

North Dakota is NOT a caucus. It's a primary.

[Shadows]

I've noticed that 538 isn't covering these contests. Why no love for the Pacific states, Nate?

In general 538 n Polling averages is for not so intelligent people to give them some idea about a state so they get the hang of it. But when people argue citing 538 like a gospel it is honestly embarrassing!

[Wells]

North Dakota is NOT a caucus. It's a primary.

So was New Hampshire. Sanders will still win ND by about 60-40, not that it will change anything.

[RI]

Now 8 precincts (~3%) in Hawaii, Sanders at 70.5%.

[/]

Now 8 precincts (~3%) in Hawaii, Sanders at 70.5%.

LOL

[Landslide Lyndon]

North Dakota is NOT a caucus. It's a primary.

So was New Hampshire. Sanders will still win ND by about 60-40, not that it will change anything.

Everybody mention North Dakota is a caucus. I just corrected it.
WTF that has to do with New Hampshire and Sanders dude?

[Boston Bread]

Now 8 precincts (~3%) in Hawaii, Sanders at 70.5%.

but muh nonwhites

[Shadows]

I would've thought Clinton would do better in Yakima. There's a decent Latino population there.

It was one of Clinton's better counties in 08. Sanders won latinos in a few states, like IL, so he could be winning them in WA too.

Yea hispanics have not shown a general voting trend like Blacks. Look in states where Clinton swept they went with them, they went with Sanders in some states. But in close contests, there has been no major difference  - No pattern to say 1 candidate is winning 65-70% of the Hispanic vote uniformly. They could go either way!

This is good news for CA seeing as in the last poll Sanders is already winning the white votes with so many months left, he will catch with the hispanic vote as well!

[IceSpear]

North Dakota is NOT a caucus. It's a primary.

So was New Hampshire. Sanders will still win ND by about 60-40, not that it will change anything.

Everybody mention North Dakota is a caucus. I just corrected it.
WTF that has to do with New Hampshire and Sanders dude?

Source? The NYT and Ballotpedia says it's a caucus.

[Wells]

North Dakota is NOT a caucus. It's a primary.

So was New Hampshire. Sanders will still win ND by about 60-40, not that it will change anything.

Everybody mention North Dakota is a caucus. I just corrected it.
WTF that has to do with New Hampshire and Sanders dude?

I just assumed that you were saying Sanders would lose North Dakota. To be fair, you are a Clinton hack.

[cwt]

Are we ever going to be able to get a geographic breakdown of Alaska?

No

The Guardian is now posting results by state house districts.

[Landslide Lyndon]

North Dakota is NOT a caucus. It's a primary.

So was New Hampshire. Sanders will still win ND by about 60-40, not that it will change anything.

Everybody mention North Dakota is a caucus. I just corrected it.
WTF that has to do with New Hampshire and Sanders dude?

Source? The NYT and Ballotpedia says it's a caucus.

It's on the wikipedia page about the 2016 Democratic primaries.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Are we ever going to be able to get a geographic breakdown of Alaska?

No

The Guardian is now posting results by state house districts.

So is HuffPo:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/primaries/2016-03-26

[Gass3268]

North Dakota is NOT a caucus. It's a primary.

So was New Hampshire. Sanders will still win ND by about 60-40, not that it will change anything.

Everybody mention North Dakota is a caucus. I just corrected it.
WTF that has to do with New Hampshire and Sanders dude?

North Dakota is a caucus