Democratic Freak States Holy Saturday results thread (1st caucuses begin @1pmET)

[RaphaelDLG]

Why does Predictit have Bernie at 90%+ to win Hawaii and Betfair have him at 60?

Is Betfair much less liquid?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I wonder if Bernie is doing better with conservadems. Hawaii has a surprisingly large number of them, voting for candidates like Hanabusa.

It could be a weird dynamic with Gabbard having endorsed him.

[Boston Bread]

Why does Predictit have Bernie at 90%+ to win Hawaii and Betfair have him at 60?

Is Betfair much less liquid?

It seems so - Predictit had Bernie at 2/3 before today but went to 9/10 after the AK/WA landslide.

[Anna Komnene]

I'm pretty interested to see what the results are in Tulsi Gabbard's congressional district.

[Gass3268]

Spokane County 2008: Obama 62.1%
Spokane County 2016: Sanders 78.0%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Where are you guys getting Hawaii? NYT/CNN still showing nothing in.

[Boston Bread]

Clark at 78% Sanders. Sanders staying at >70% seems likely now.
Whatcom will also be good for Bernie - it was Obama's best county in western WA.

[The Other Castro]

Someone (I'm assuming a Precinct Captain) is tweeting pictures of a bunch of official looking results papers for all the district 23 precincts in Hawaii.

23-01: 11 Sanders, 3 Clinton
23-02: 221 Sanders, 81 Clinton
23-03: 6 Sanders, 4 Clinton       
23-04: 158 Sanders, 70 Clinton
23-05: 188 Sanders, 131 Clinton   

[Gass3268]

Clark County 2008: Obama 66.0%
Clark County 2016: Sanders 78.5%

[RaphaelDLG]

On Betfair, Predictit, and Predictwise Sanders' chances of winning the nom are climbing from roughly 5% to 9%.  Seems like an overreaction.

[The Other Castro]

Hawaii:

District 36- 231 Sanders 172 Clinton
District 37- 292 Sanders 227 Clinton
District 38- 204 Sanders- 113 Clinton

Honolulu District 13 Precinct 2
Bernie 104- Hillary 105

Honolulu District 23 Precinct 5
Bernie 188 Hillary 131

[The Other Castro]

Looks like today will end up being around a 60-65 delegate gap closer for Sanders.

[Boston Bread]

Where are you guys getting Hawaii? NYT/CNN still showing nothing in.

Apparently the results will be dumped all at once like ID/KS.

[Shadows]

Looks like today will end up being around a 60-65 delegate gap closer for Sanders.

Around 45 In Washington & 10 in Alaska (NET) - So 55 there. So 60-65 seems a fair call @ this point considering Hawaii may give Bernie the victory & he could cross 60% there as well!

[cinyc]

Alaska looks like pretty uniform win. No doubt Bernie won every demographic in a landslide.

There are some regional variations.  Clinton did best (but still lost) in areas in and around Downtown Anchorage.  She lost 2-1 instead of 3-1 or worse.  The 4 Alaska Native Bush HDs 37-40 went to Sanders more or less in line with the rest of the state given the constraints caused by having a different number of delegates, except for HD 40 in the north (Barrow, Kotzebue), which was unanimous for Sanders.  There were other HDs where all the delegates went to Sanders, 1.5 in the Republican-heavy Mat-Su Borough (HD 12 is in both Anchorage and Mat-Su), 1.5 in Anchorage, 1 in Fairbanks, the railbelt interior HD 6, and the Kodiak-Cordova HD 32.

[RaphaelDLG]

Name some states where Sanders did better in urban areas than rural ones. 

It seems to me like Hillary is the urban candidate and Sanders is the rural candidate, even in states where Sanders won both areas and Hillary won both areas.

[Mr. Morden]

Why does Predictit have Bernie at 90%+ to win Hawaii and Betfair have him at 60?

Is Betfair much less liquid?

Hardly anyone bets in the individual state markets on Betfair.

[The Other Castro]

Total of the Twitter precinct results so far:

Sanders - 4025
Clinton - 2187

[ElectionsGuy]

Looks like a 60-65% Sanders win.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

My fb feed is filled with "BERNIE ABOUT TO BEAT THE SHRILL"

"THE WITCH IS DEAD AFTER TONIGHT"

Ugh

[RaphaelDLG]

If Sanders runs +60D across today's three states, he'll be 75 delegates under 538's target for him in a 50-50 race.  Doesn't seem like a lot, but there aren't enough contests left for him to narrow that margin by overperforming.

[Wells]

I'm gonna laugh when Clinton ends up squeaking out a win in Hawaii 51-49.

[Xing]

So Sanders probably takes HI too, but by a somewhat smaller margin than AK/WA?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Name some states where Sanders did better in urban areas than rural ones. 

It seems to me like Hillary is the urban candidate and Sanders is the rural candidate, even in states where Sanders won both areas and Hillary won both areas.

Tennessee:

Statewide, Sanders had 32%, but 34% in Nashville and a whopping 48% in Knoxville.  Granted, he was only 19% in the other large city, Memphis, which has a much bigger minority population.

[Xing]

Looks like WA will be a 73-28 split.