Democratic Freak States Holy Saturday results thread (1st caucuses begin @1pmET)

[Antonio the Sixth]

So when are we finally getting Hawaii?

[Blue3]

This is a long wait.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So when are we finally getting Hawaii?

The Hawaii caucus wasn't actually held. DWS canceled it and did some fake reporting of turnout so no one realizes until a couple days from now. Any protests will be ignored, and a carefully regulated state convention will be held later, where a 100% Hillary delegate slate will be selected for the national convention.

[Xing]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTyN-vvFIkE

Come on, Hawaii, you can do this.

[KingSweden]

This is a long wait.

Hey, they're on "Hawaii time". They'll get there when they get there.

[Boston Bread]

WA 100% in, Bernie's margin increased!

[Xing]

My county (King) may have been one of Clinton's better counties in the state, but at least it was still more than a 2-1 win for Sanders.

[ElectionsGuy]

100% in Washington

Sanders: 19,159 (72.7%)
Clinton: 7,140 (27.1%)

[Shadows]

As I said earlier, it'll probably be 73-28, so +45 for Bernie.

Greenpapers is showing 74-27 when Sanders was @ 72.57.

Edit - It will 74-27. 100% in & Sanders @ 72.7%, Clinton down to 27.1%, others - 0.2%. He has got late boost from king's where his vote share from 65 odd has increased to 67.3. Pierce increased to 73.3 as well - Likely some 75% odd Bernie precincts report.

I heard 72.7% or something was the mark required for the extra delegate!

[Xing]

As I said earlier, it'll probably be 73-28, so +45 for Bernie.

Greenpapers is showing 74-27 when Sanders was @ 72.57.

Edit - It will 74-27. 100% in & Sanders @ 72.7%, Clinton down to 27.1%, others - 0.2%. He has got late boost from king's where his vote share from 65 odd has increased to 67.3. Pierce increased to 73.3 as well - Likely some 75% odd Bernie precincts report.

I heard 72.7% or something was the mark required for the extra delegate!

Well, I stand corrected, then. +47 will almost certainly be Bernie's biggest gain from a single state. He'd have to win CA by double digits to beat that.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well, tonight is over. Congrats Bernie!

Hawaii situation:

So when are we finally getting Hawaii?

The Hawaii caucus wasn't actually held. DWS canceled it and did some fake reporting of turnout so no one realizes until a couple days from now. Any protests will be ignored, and a carefully regulated state convention will be held later, where a 100% Hillary delegate slate will be selected for the national convention.

[Shadows]

As I said earlier, it'll probably be 73-28, so +45 for Bernie.

Greenpapers is showing 74-27 when Sanders was @ 72.57.

Edit - It will 74-27. 100% in & Sanders @ 72.7%, Clinton down to 27.1%, others - 0.2%. He has got late boost from king's where his vote share from 65 odd has increased to 67.3. Pierce increased to 73.3 as well - Likely some 75% odd Bernie precincts report.

I heard 72.7% or something was the mark required for the extra delegate!

Well, I stand corrected, then. +47 will almost certainly be Bernie's biggest gain from a single state. He'd have to win CA by double digits to beat that.

If he wins CA by 10% he will get that margin. I think if the race stays competitive he will do better. He is already winning the whites in CA.

Too early to call but for me it is a genuine possibility that we could do Very Well in CA!

[catographer]

As I said earlier, it'll probably be 73-28, so +45 for Bernie.

Greenpapers is showing 74-27 when Sanders was @ 72.57.

Edit - It will 74-27. 100% in & Sanders @ 72.7%, Clinton down to 27.1%, others - 0.2%. He has got late boost from king's where his vote share from 65 odd has increased to 67.3. Pierce increased to 73.3 as well - Likely some 75% odd Bernie precincts report.

I heard 72.7% or something was the mark required for the extra delegate!

Well, I stand corrected, then. +47 will almost certainly be Bernie's biggest gain from a single state. He'd have to win CA by double digits to beat that.

If he wins CA by 10% he will get that margin. I think if the race stays competitive he will do better. He is already winning the whites in CA.

Too early to call but for me it is a genuine possibility that we could do Very Well in CA!

Eh, Clinton won Nevada by the same margin she won in 2008, and she won Arizona by a much greater margin. That portends her doing at least as good and probably better in SoCal than 2008, and with a strong showing in SoCal she should do well in the Central Valley. Bay Area is very liberal but it's also upscale and diverse, so I figure that that favors her as well. California as it stands should be a 3-10% Clinton win (she won by 8.31% in '08).

[Maxwell]

Something I'm rather confident in: Sanders won't be winning California - by ten points or otherwise. She won the state in 2008 against Obama by 8 points. I won't say it's impossible for Sanders to win the state (he won Michigan for god's sake) - but he won't be winning it by more than 10.

[Shadows]

Just to add I think the 0.2% will be distributed among Bernie & Hillary right?

So Sanders will get around 72.85% odd & Hillary @ 27.15% odd - 74-27 split surely - That is why Alaska got bumped up, they rounded the others n stuff I think!

73% in a Big state like Washington is not easy to pull - Very difficult to do these numbers in 100+ Delegate States.

Is there any state 100+ Delegate state where a candidate has got 73% or more of the votes this time? Washington may the best result of any "Big State" this time!

[Smash255]

As I said earlier, it'll probably be 73-28, so +45 for Bernie.

Greenpapers is showing 74-27 when Sanders was @ 72.57.

Edit - It will 74-27. 100% in & Sanders @ 72.7%, Clinton down to 27.1%, others - 0.2%. He has got late boost from king's where his vote share from 65 odd has increased to 67.3. Pierce increased to 73.3 as well - Likely some 75% odd Bernie precincts report.

I heard 72.7% or something was the mark required for the extra delegate!

Greenpapers states it is a rough estimate because of how the county data was extrapolated to the CD level.  The 74th delegate for Sanders (which does look likely) or the 28th for Clinton looks like it will come down to CD-10, which it appears Sanders has a 5-1 advantage, but it is very close to a 4-2 split.

[Shadows]

Something I'm rather confident in: Sanders won't be winning California - by ten points or otherwise. She won the state in 2008 against Obama by 8 points. I won't say it's impossible for Sanders to win the state (he won Michigan for god's sake) - but he won't be winning it by more than 10.

Clinton won OK by 25% in 08 & lost by 10% or so in 16. Some of Clinton's best states are very good for Sanders this time. Clinton is getting Obama's black votes but Sanders has taken away from a significant section of Clinton white votes - Moderates, Middle Class & even conservatives.

Sanders will win the white & liberal votes of Obama by a bigger margin in CA & there is no reason for him to lose the hispanic vote decisively. Obama lost the hispanic decisively in almost all states

10% possibly is too much of an ask, there's 2 months left now - Let us see - Even a victory would be difficult!

[ElectionsGuy]

If the results aren't announced within the next 15 minutes I'm going to bed.

[Matty]

these islanders are getting on my nerves.

report the results now!!

[Bacon King]

"The latest estimate from the Democratic Party of Hawaii for full results from today’s presidential preference poll is 9 p.m. The party is not releasing partial results."

9 PM is 58 minutes away

[Bacon King]

this is the crowdsourced results from twitter though if you want to know what the results are gonna be:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pc3BcftIpsQf4cnpx9gXu_MVu0fe362OMhrP5W5IGCM/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true#

[Shadows]

That stuff was taken from reddit, Atlas is visiting reddit way too often!

[ElectionsGuy]

138/141 precincts reporting according to that are Sanders victories.

[politicallefty]

Something I'm rather confident in: Sanders won't be winning California - by ten points or otherwise. She won the state in 2008 against Obama by 8 points. I won't say it's impossible for Sanders to win the state (he won Michigan for god's sake) - but he won't be winning it by more than 10.

I'm more optimistic about California than you are. I think the results will look quite similar to 2008, give or take a couple percentage points. I think Hillary will do better than 2008 in SoCal and the Central Valley, while Bernie will do better than Obama in the Bay Area. How much that changes will determine the margin, anything from a mid-single digit win for Hillary to something in the mid-teens. I would be stunned beyond belief if Hillary loses California (even more than her loss in Michigan).

[Shadows]

these islanders are getting on my nerves.

report the results now!!

Another 30-40 minutes - Weird - So late!