Democratic Freak States Holy Saturday results thread (1st caucuses begin @1pmET)

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Yep, Clinton can win WA, and Sanders will win NY.

I'll be caucusing this morning, so I can share how things went down at my precinct, if people are interested.

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Weather-wise, it's pretty nice in the Seattle area, so the weather probably won't keep turnout down.

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Weather-wise, it's pretty nice in the Seattle area, so the weather probably won't keep turnout down.

That should be good for Bernie, no?

Overall, it's probably a plus for him. One possible bit of good news for Clinton is that the University of Washington is still finishing up spring break, so it's possible that not everyone at UW is back in town yet.

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Well, I just got to my precinct location, and it's already quite crowded. Lots of Sanders people, but Clinton has a presence here too.

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Well, I just got to my precinct location, and it's already quite crowded. Lots of Sanders people, but Clinton has a presence here too.

Thanks for keeping us updated, its always awesome when someone is willing to give us an insider perspective on what's going on.

Sure, no problem. I probably won't be able to update folks again for a little while, since the caucus is going to start soon. The room is now packed, and it looks like turnout in my neck of the woods is close to, if not even higher than it was in 2008. We'll get an initial count at 10 PT, but based on what I can see, it looks like my precinct will be about 2-to-1 for Bernie.

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On a side note, some people are wearing both Hillary and Bernie stickers, probably to promote party unity.

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The start might be delayed, due to the size the crowd here.

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Well, we've split into smaller caucuses. Looks like we'll get started after 10:30 PT.

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Final tally in my caucus

Sanders - 45 (four delegates)
Clinton - 18 (one delegate)
Undecided - 3

Slight improvement for Clinton from eight years ago.

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The delegate haul becomes 80% Bernie, 20% Hillary if this is true.

Did the undecided switch or something? 45-18 & 4-1 is strange!

The undecided would not be viable. 63 viable votes. 5(45/63)= 3.57; 5(18/63)= 1.43; 5 is a greater first decimal than 4, so Bernie gets the remaining delegate.

So what I'm getting is that my Google Trends prediction of Bernie getting 71.8% of the vote in Washington is about right on the money.

Bingo. Originally, there was going to be an uncommitted delegate, but enough undecided voters made up their mind.

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King should still go easily for Sanders, though it might not be the blowout I was initially expecting.

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My caucus was 3-1 for Bernie.  9% of people were uncommitted for god knows what reason.

I gave a speech for Clinton, but people kept interrupting me to say they couldn't hear even though I was shouting at the top of my lungs.  Oh well, you win some you lose some.

Well, the same was true for me.

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Well it helps that caucuses are designed to heavily disenfranchise wide swaths of the electorate. If this were a primary then Clinton would only be losing by 10% or so, I would guess. In 2008 Obama won the WA caucus by nearly 40%, but only won the primary by 6%.

How many times does it need to be repeated that the primary eight years ago was a beauty contest? Clinton would be doing marginally better in a primary, but it would not have been a single-digit race eight years ago. The result probably would've been similar to what it was in Oregon, almost 60-40.

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What are the chances of Bernie getting >70% in WA

Pretty decent odds at the moment.

I'd say it's about 50/50. He's probably not going to crack 70% in King, but it looks like King might end up being one of Clinton's better counties, to my surprise.

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At least there are some sane states left to avenge Bernie for the filthy South and its voters with their Hillary-fetish ...

Can you not do this? Let's just be glad that today will be a big day for Bernie, and not put down other parts of the country.

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Most of these are small counties, but it looks like Sanders will dominate Eastern WA, and may do better than Obama did in '08. We'll get a better idea of the margin once King starts coming in, though, and I expect that's when we'll get a call.

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Also, the NYT results map shows Wahkiakum county went 17-2 Sanders with one precinct. If this is so, how did Clinton get anything out of that area? She would have been under the threshold in that one precinct. How does this work?

Wahkiakum has like ten precincts.  They must be reporting delegate sites instead of precincts.

It'll take a good while to post, but Sanders landslide at my caucus site in Downtown Seattle.

Yeah, these are state delegates, not votes. More than five people voted in Garfield county, lol.

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98% in a 17th of Seattle, though? The last time I saw 98% anywhere on Atlas for an election result was FDR's numbers from South Carolina in 1930s era elections.

Just to show you I'm not freaking out though, it heartens me to see that Clinton has actually won a precinct (called "Silver Spurs"):

https://twitter.com/katherinelong/status/713796204912443393

It was a given that Sanders was going to crush Clinton in WA. Unless he cracks 80%, this isn't going to change the state of the race.

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When can Washington officially be called?

Probably once King comes in.

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Cowlitz came in strong for Sanders, he did better than Obama.

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She'll definitely get viability in WA. AK seems like more of a question mark.

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If Sanders wins CA by the margin he's winning WA, then he'll have a chance.

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If Sanders wins CA by the margin he's winning WA, then he'll have a chance.

The demographics of CA are very different, though. He'll dominate the Bay Area, however

Exactly. I was implying that there was no way it would happen. He might win CA, but it would be a narrow win, which isn't what he needs.

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28-11 is still a decisive win for Sanders. If he's winning King like that, he'll easily stay above 70% statewide.

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Looks like it'll be a 13-3 delegate split in AK.