Yay!
I like the 24-team format mostly, although I would've gone with 4 groups of 6 instead of 6 of 4 (yes, I know that adds more games, but it puts a higher premium on doing good in the group stage, instead of letting second-to-lasts go through). Anyone who thinks it makes qualifying too easy should take one look at the Netherlands.
Germany, France, and Spain are obviously favorites, I'd say. My money's on Deutchland--I never should've doubted them in Brazil. Iceland's a nice story, and an interesting one is Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Friends (i.e. Sweden) trying to do something good in Zlatan's last major tournament in the nation Zlatan plays in.
The thing is that apart from Zlatan the team is not that good. In a few years that will hopefully change (we won the UEFA under-21 last year, so the Olympics is looking more promising, might be with Zlatan as three overage players are allowed). Currently Belgium has a very good team (http://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/), so they might have a chance as well. Had a beer with a Belgian guy this weekend and he was quite sure that they would beat us, so a victory in that game would be nice. Though, under the right conditions 2-2 would be quite alright as well.. (http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2012/jun/18/euro-2012-sweden-denmark-2-2)
Oh yeah, Sweden isn't that good outside of Zlatan. That's why lots of people were saying Denmark would beat you guys in the playoffs despite Zlatan--of course, we saw what happened with that. I was meaning more of a "storyline" aspect, as Zlatan plays in France and this is his probably his last major international tournament, although I could see how it could've been interpreted as a prediction.
Belgium has a lot of very good players, but I'm not sure if they have what it takes to go at the title. For example, at their best Eden Hazard and Christian Benteke are very good players (perhaps "world class" depending on your definition of that finicky term), but they've been bad this past year. Lukaku has also been streaky, although has generally been good for Everton this season. But they have a clear top-5 goalkeeper in Courtois, and a defender in Kompany who literally is the difference between Manchester City having a PL-winning defense or the equivalent of 4 droopy potato sacks in front of Joe Hart. I could see Belgium making a serious run at this, but I have doubts they could win.
Leinad's Tentative PredictionsBecause where else do you expect to find quality European soccer analysis but north Georgia?Group Stage:Group A: 1) France - 2) Switzerland - 3) Rumania
Group B: 1) England - 2) Russia - 3) Wales
Group C: 1) Germany - 2) Poland - 3) Ukraine
Group D: 1) Spain - 2) Croatia - 3) Turkey
Group E: 1) Italy - 2) Belgium - 3) Sweden
Group F: 1) Portugal - 2) Austria - 3) Hungary
Top 3rds: Sweden, Wales, Turkey, and...um...what the hell, Hungary!
(I'll be honest, most of those 3rd-place predictions were merely educated guesses. I am an expert on neither the national team of Romania or of Albania, believe it or not. I don't know enough to write a book about European soccer, but I know enough to credibly review a book on European soccer. Either way, it would not be successful due to be alienating the target audience by calling it "soccer," despite the fact that the term originated in Britain.)
Round of 16:Poland > Switzerland
Spain > Wales/Hungary (this is the only part I couldn't figure out based on who plays who--but the winners are the same either way)
England > Turkey
Belgium > Portugal (Courtois denies CR7 on multiple occasions)
Germany > Wales/Hungary
Italy > Croatia
Sweden > France (I know France is much better, but to the journalist in me the idea of Zlatan crushing France is too enticing a story)
Austria > Russia (
)
Quarterfinals:Poland > Spain (Lewandowski is quite good, Spain is beatable, and there have to be some upsets, right?)
Belgium > England (on penalties)
Germany > Italy
Austria > Sweden (mental hangover--maybe a real one, too--after knocking out the hosts)
Semifinals:Poland > Belgium
Austria > Germany (it's obvious I'm just making it Poland vs. Austria at this point, right?
)
Finals:Austria > Poland (it is revealed that Matthias Sindelar didn't actually die of mysterious circumstances in 1939, but elaborately faked his death so he could come back and become the oldest player, at the age of 113, to score a goal in international competition since Samuel Eto'o.)
