Be careful saying Trump will get creamed in November

[Joe Biden 2020]

His polls numbers may be real low right now, but remember, it's only late March.  He has defied all conventional wisdom so far in this campaign and there's no reason to think he won't continue to do so in the general.  Clinton has a lot of dirt to throw on Trump, but Trump has a lot of dirt to throw on Clinton and neither has fully pivoted to the general election, yet.  This is going to be a long, bruising fight.  It's going to get extremely nasty.  I give the edge to Hillary, yes, but in the wise words of Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, and I paraphrase, "Never, ever, ever underestimate Donald Trump."

Get your popcorn ready!

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Finally some common sense, even if it's coming from Bushie.

[Hammy]

Nothing that happens in the primary is really much of an indication of the general election.  The vote has been so severely split between so many candidates in the primary (and Cruz being the only one to win a majority in any states), while there likely won't be a viable third party challenger who is getting 15-20% of the vote. Trump will be facing a whole batch of other voters in November, and while I'm not saying he's guaranteed to lose, simply defying expectation in a primary who can't settle on a single non-Trump candidate from the start doesn't by any stretch mean he'll win either.

[Meclazine for Israel]

True, we have not seen Melania lesbian soft porn brought up yet.

And Bill Clintons' sexual indiscretions will surely do a lap of the oval at some stage.

Trump will rely on something to change to become President. Terrorist attack, Hillary health scare etc.

Donalds' current course is the wrong trajectory for success.

[Virginiá]

Fair enough, but (and this isn't necessarily directed at your post alone)  can we please stop using the "He has defied all conventional wisdom so far in this campaign" to justify any and all Trump-related prognostications?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Nothing that happens in the primary is really much of an indication of the general election.

Of course we should be careful with treating the primary as some sort of an indication of the GE (if so, Obama would've carry Idaho or Utah in the GE due to his primary performance), but remember one thing: both Trump and Sanders performance so far showed (remembering about all differences between the two) how strong the whole "anti-establishment" wave is. This wave isn't going to just disappear come the GE.

[Joe Biden 2020]

You should also be careful saying he will win the nomination.

Nothing is guaranteed, but he's certainly got the best chance.  He's got an outside shot mathematically to win 1,237 outright and putting all this talk to bed.

In my opinion, he cannot afford to wait to shift his attention to Hillary while Hillary already shifts his attention to him.

[indietraveler]

I wonder what there's left for these two to throw at each other that would change anyone's minds? This is going to be a nasty year.

[ElectionsGuy]

Fair enough, but (and this isn't necessarily directed at your post alone)  can we please stop using the "He has defied all conventional wisdom so far in this campaign" to justify any and all Trump-related prognostications?

Yes. Also a related point is that people thought his poll numbers would fade and magically go away come January and the early voting states. The polls were right, and Trump has maintained that core 1/3 of Republicans and even more in many states. This time, the polls show him down massively to Clinton, and if they maintain that way, he's in big trouble. He's defied conventional wisdom by the way he's run his campaign, he hasn't really defied the polls in any contest (more often he's under performed the polls than over performed in them)

[Reaganfan]

Nothing that happens in the primary is really much of an indication of the general election.

Of course we should be careful with treating the primary as some sort of an indication of the GE (if so, Obama would've carry Idaho or Utah in the GE due to his primary performance), but remember one thing: both Trump and Sanders performance so far showed (remembering about all differences between the two) how strong the whole "anti-establishment" wave is. This wave isn't going to just disappear come the GE.

That's what makes me scratch my head. I voted for Kasich and supported Rubio. I'm no Trump fan, and obviously the current polls show him trailing Hillary Clinton.

But I have trouble believing that in this Trump/Sanders/High GOP turnout/anti-establishment election year, the end result will be "Hillary Clinton, the epitome of establishment...in a landslide".

[Virginiá]

Yes. Also a related point is that people thought his poll numbers would fade and magically go away come January and the early voting states. The polls were right, and Trump has maintained that core 1/3 of Republicans and even more in many states. This time, the polls show him down massively to Clinton, and if they maintain that way, he's in big trouble. He's defied conventional wisdom by the way he's run his campaign, he hasn't really defied the polls in any contest (more often he's under performed the polls than over performed in them)

Good points there mate. The polls aren't really wrong - If the GE was held today, Trump would lose in a landslide. One of the reasons early GE polls are so inaccurate is because so much can and will happen over the course of the year that changes the race. The problem for Trump is he has consistently lost to Clinton and Sanders in the vast majority of the polls - Even before his rallies started brimming with racism, or before he started attacking candidates wives, or before <insert any number of Trump bs>.

In relation to the topic -
Trump has been encouraging all of this so he can stay in the media and get free attention, so if that's his strategy, it's hard to see how he will change it for the better and start recovering his image. It takes a lot of work and changes to rebuild and turn the race around. Based on spending so far, it doesn't appear Trump is too committed to spending too much of his own money, either, which is going to be very necessary to run a competitive campaign.  There is also the possibility that he may never recover his image among certain constituencies, especially if the Republican party itself keeps viciously attacking him all the way to the convention.

Parties as divided as the GOP do not tend to win major elections when they are expending major resources attacking their own front-runner.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Yes. Also a related point is that people thought his poll numbers would fade and magically go away come January and the early voting states. The polls were right, and Trump has maintained that core 1/3 of Republicans and even more in many states. This time, the polls show him down massively to Clinton, and if they maintain that way, he's in big trouble. He's defied conventional wisdom by the way he's run his campaign, he hasn't really defied the polls in any contest (more often he's under performed the polls than over performed in them)

Good points there mate. The polls aren't really wrong - If the GE was held today, Trump would lose in a landslide. One of the reasons early GE polls are so inaccurate is because so much can and will happen over the course of the year that changes the race. The problem for Trump is he has consistently lost to Clinton and Sanders in the vast majority of the polls - Even before his rallies started brimming with racism, or before he started attacking candidates wives, or before <insert any number of Trump bs>.

In relation to the topic -
Trump has been encouraging all of this so he can stay in the media and get free attention, so if that's his strategy, it's hard to see how he will change it for the better and start recovering his image. It takes a lot of work and changes to rebuild and turn the race around. Based on spending so far, it doesn't appear Trump is too committed to spending too much of his own money, either, which is going to be very necessary to run a competitive campaign.  There is also the possibility that he may never recover his image among certain constituencies, especially if the Republican party itself keeps viciously attacking him all the way to the convention.

Parties as divided as the GOP do not tend to win major elections when they are expending major resources attacking their own front-runner.

All of this is true.  But the bottom line is that the General Election is over seven (7) months away (over 6 months for the beginning of Early Voting anywhere).  A lot WILL happen, including a convention, choosing running mates, etc. 

As much as Trump has engaged in unseemly conduct toward women, think of who the women are.  One is Megyn Kelly (FOX News flunky) and the other is Carly Fiorina (Warmongering Ted Cruz Supporter).  These women aren't the darlings of liberals, so that minimizes the damage. 

The other issue is Trump's "bigotry", but even there, comparisons to George Wallace fall apart fast.  Trump's done business around the world with all sorts of people, and he has all sorts of friends and relationships.  Trump has deliberately spoken in simple terms about immigration, but he's not wrong about the issue of rapists and murderers if one wants to have a serious discussion about the very real problem of Trans-National Criminal Gangs infiltrating the United States (Los Zetas and Sur-13 come to mind).  I also note that no one has lambasted Trump to any significant degree for being anti-gay.  And Trump has won the support of lots of folks in the South and Border States without minimizing his New York roots or pretending to be some kind of hayseed that he's clearly not.

[ProudModerate2]

As of today, I would not use the term "creamed' or "landslide" to describe a Hillary victory over trump in a general election scenario.

I will say that Hillary more-than-likely will beat trump, approximately close to how Obama beat Romney in 2012 (51% vs 47% in popular vote). And I wouldn't doubt if it goes slightly more for Hillary, like 53% to 45%.

Both of my scenarios also include an electoral vote victory for Hillary (of course), but that can be more difficult to judge based mainly on Florida/Ohio.

[Mike Thick]

I've been very judicious what I say. This election cycle has been impossible to predict thus far -- why should it start in the general election? I want to minimize the amount of egg I have on my face that Wednesday morning in November.

That being said, as of now I have a tough time seeing Trump win a general election. Things change, though. And, again, nothing would surprise me.

[RightBehind]

At first when he announced I thought him being in this current position was blasphemous.

Now it seems like millions are crazy/dumb enough to vote for him. If you can successfully fear monger, you are virtually unstoppable.

[PeteB]

Unless Trump somehow gets to over 1,200 delegates before the convention, he will not be the nominee, so this discussion is purely academic.

If by some fluke he does become the nominee, the loss to Clinton would make Goldwater's landslide loss small by comparison. We are talking primary vs general election voters and, for anyone who is trying to make parallels between the meager attacks by Bush and Co. and the onslaught Trump will face from the Clinton machine, I want some of what you are smoking!

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Nothing that happens in the primary is really much of an indication of the general election.

Of course we should be careful with treating the primary as some sort of an indication of the GE (if so, Obama would've carry Idaho or Utah in the GE due to his primary performance), but remember one thing: both Trump and Sanders performance so far showed (remembering about all differences between the two) how strong the whole "anti-establishment" wave is. This wave isn't going to just disappear come the GE.

That's what makes me scratch my head. I voted for Kasich and supported Rubio. I'm no Trump fan, and obviously the current polls show him trailing Hillary Clinton.

But I have trouble believing that in this Trump/Sanders/High GOP turnout/anti-establishment election year, the end result will be "Hillary Clinton, the epitome of establishment...in a landslide".

That he's a terrible national candidate has been concealed by the entire Republican nominating contest being an embarrassing disaster from start to finish.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

At first when he announced I thought him being in this current position was blasphemous.

Now it seems like millions are crazy/dumb enough to vote for him. If you can successfully fear monger, you are virtually unstoppable.

In a divided Republican primary. Even as the Republican nomination is almost in his grasp, his national numbers have plummeted far below their already abysmal levels.

The disastrous and awful Republican primary has concealed what a poor nominee he would be.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Donald wont get creamed in November.

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/03/26/nearly-20000-support-petition-to-allow-guns-at-republican-national-convention.html

Trump will get shot in July.

[President Johnson]

National polls don't mean much; especially at this time; more than a half year before the election. Nobody imagined back in summer and fall that TRUMP would even win a single primary (or that he would still be around in February). Most oberversers thought that his campaign was just a joke. Now he's the frontrunner and has a 95% chance to get the nomination. And I'm absolutely sure that TRUMP will close the poll gap by fall. He will do great in the debates and then turn the tide.

[MK]

Donald wont get creamed in November.

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/03/26/nearly-20000-support-petition-to-allow-guns-at-republican-national-convention.html

Trump will get shot in July.

This a good petition that I support.   

Maybe the folks exercising their 2ND amendment will insure voters don't get shafted by the now tyrannical GOP Establishment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

National polls don't mean much; especially at this time; more than a half year before the election. Nobody imagined back in summer and fall that TRUMP would even win a single primary (or that he would still be around in February). Most oberversers thought that his campaign was just a joke. Now he's the frontrunner and has a 95% chance to get the nomination. And I'm absolutely sure that TRUMP will close the poll gap by fall. He will do great in the debates and then turn the tide.

Hes down by 3-5 points and is duplicating Romney numbers, Dems will win 272 and have a 50/50 chance in OH and Va. Just like what happened in 2012.

[Wisconsin+17]

Dunno about that. He's drawing 77 percent of Republicans. That's a Goldwaterish landslide.

[SillyAmerican]

His polls numbers may be real low right now, but remember, it's only late March.  He has defied all conventional wisdom so far in this campaign and there's no reason to think he won't continue to do so in the general.  Clinton has a lot of dirt to throw on Trump, but Trump has a lot of dirt to throw on Clinton and neither has fully pivoted to the general election, yet.  This is going to be a long, bruising fight.  It's going to get extremely nasty.  I give the edge to Hillary, yes, but in the wise words of Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, and I paraphrase, "Never, ever, ever underestimate Donald Trump."

I think you're absolutely right. I would definitely not advise betting against Trump.

[RightBehind]

If Trump becomes president, I predict record low approval ratings.