What Clinton should do when this is over.

[Beet]

1. Give a speech thanking her supporters, and say something vague like she hopes we can continue to build on President Obama's achievements in the November election, but do not endorse Senator Sanders. Do not get too emotional during this speech.

2. Tell her supporters, friends and allies not to insult Senator Sanders.

3. Say that she's not closing her campaign until the Convention, and that she will insist that her delegates vote for her on the first ballot.

4. After this, retire from public life. If you speak at the convention, make your remarks very brief and focus on history and women's rights. Do not campaign for Senator Sanders like you did for Obama.

[Flake]

[IceSpear]

How many of these are you going to make? This is like your 5th one.

[Beet]

I made a thread saying I hoped her votes were counted at the convention. I never made a thread about how she should exit the race while maintaining her dignity. This is the first thread about this. This is her last move in serious public life so it might as well be good.

[Fusionmunster]

Shush sweet baby Beet, it'll all be over soon. Why dont you go turn off your computer and come back when your not so hysterical.

[Oak Hills]

I made a thread saying I hoped her votes were counted at the convention. I never made a thread about how she should exit the race while maintaining her dignity. This is the first thread about this. This is her last move in serious public life so it might as well be good.

You can't really be delusional enough to think that Clinton will lose?

[Beet]

I'm the opposite of hysterical. I'm very calm. Which is how Clinton needs to be in her concession speech. We don't want this turning into a Pat Schroeder '87 style situation.

[Beet]

I made a thread saying I hoped her votes were counted at the convention. I never made a thread about how she should exit the race while maintaining her dignity. This is the first thread about this. This is her last move in serious public life so it might as well be good.

You can't really be delusional enough to think that Clinton will lose?

She's lost tonight. Have you seen the lines? The Democratic primary has gone from a low turnout race to a very, very high turnout race. This fundamentally changes everything.

[IceSpear]

I made a thread saying I hoped her votes were counted at the convention. I never made a thread about how she should exit the race while maintaining her dignity. This is the first thread about this. This is her last move in serious public life so it might as well be good.

You can't really be delusional enough to think that Clinton will lose?

She's lost tonight. Have you seen the lines? The Democratic primary has gone from a low turnout race to a very, very high turnout race. This fundamentally changes everything.

I know you're likely just trolling now, but caucuses basically always have lower turnout than primaries.

[Fusionmunster]

I made a thread saying I hoped her votes were counted at the convention. I never made a thread about how she should exit the race while maintaining her dignity. This is the first thread about this. This is her last move in serious public life so it might as well be good.

You can't really be delusional enough to think that Clinton will lose?

She's lost tonight. Have you seen the lines? The Democratic primary has gone from a low turnout race to a very, very high turnout race. This fundamentally changes everything.

For a caucus. Had these been primaries turnout wouldnt be anything worth mentioning.

And you are hysterical, a bad night and your already predicting the doom of your preferred candidates campaign. Its pathetic.

[Beet]

Huh? NH is a swing state. The last 3 Dem nominees have been good for NH though. It looks like this one will be, too.

IceSpear: As much as I believe Helen Purcell is an incompetent, they did have models based on previous elections that gave plausible estimates of turnout. Election day turnout in Maricopa clearly blew out those projections. We now have more contests with reports of ballots running out, than contests where ballots didn't run out.

[Oak Hills]

Huh? NH is a swing state. The last 3 Dem nominees have been good for NH though. It looks like this one will be, too.

It is, but TN Volunteer has this weird obsession with insisting it is not.

[Averroës Nix]

Literally Beet right now:

[IceSpear]

Huh? NH is a swing state. The last 3 Dem nominees have been good for NH though. It looks like this one will be, too.

IceSpear: As much as I believe Helen Purcell is an incompetent, they did have models based on previous elections that gave plausible estimates of turnout. Election day turnout in Maricopa clearly blew out those projections. We now have more contests with reports of ballots running out, than contests where ballots didn't run out.

And Hillary won by 17 points. I don't get your point.

[Xing]

[Mr. Morden]

What Clinton should do when this is over.

I'd suggest these steps:

1) Ignore the passive aggressive trolling that Trump does when he calls her to concede.

2) Give a victory speech before her supporters.

3) Set up a transition team for her move into the White House.

3b) Remember not to hire Craig Livingstone this time.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Let me know when we have a poll showing Sanders ahead in New York. He has to win there to be nominated.

[Beet]

Huh? NH is a swing state. The last 3 Dem nominees have been good for NH though. It looks like this one will be, too.

IceSpear: As much as I believe Helen Purcell is an incompetent, they did have models based on previous elections that gave plausible estimates of turnout. Election day turnout in Maricopa clearly blew out those projections. We now have more contests with reports of ballots running out, than contests where ballots didn't run out.

And Hillary won by 17 points. I don't get your point.

A win based on the low turnout phase of the election (absentee ballots cast weeks earlier). Election day was like 10-15% of the total vote (which Sanders won by 20 points). But still, it was a primary.

[IceSpear]

Huh? NH is a swing state. The last 3 Dem nominees have been good for NH though. It looks like this one will be, too.

IceSpear: As much as I believe Helen Purcell is an incompetent, they did have models based on previous elections that gave plausible estimates of turnout. Election day turnout in Maricopa clearly blew out those projections. We now have more contests with reports of ballots running out, than contests where ballots didn't run out.

And Hillary won by 17 points. I don't get your point.

A win based on the low turnout phase of the election (absentee ballots cast weeks earlier). Election day was like 10-15% of the total vote (which Sanders won by 20 points). But still, it was a primary.

Okay. Just out of curiosity, how is Bernie going to win the nomination? I'd like to see your detailed math.

[Bacon King]

[The Other Castro]

Huh? NH is a swing state. The last 3 Dem nominees have been good for NH though. It looks like this one will be, too.

IceSpear: As much as I believe Helen Purcell is an incompetent, they did have models based on previous elections that gave plausible estimates of turnout. Election day turnout in Maricopa clearly blew out those projections. We now have more contests with reports of ballots running out, than contests where ballots didn't run out.

And Hillary won by 17 points. I don't get your point.

A win based on the low turnout phase of the election (absentee ballots cast weeks earlier). Election day was like 10-15% of the total vote (which Sanders won by 20 points). But still, it was a primary.

Okay. Just out of curiosity, how is Bernie going to win the nomination? I'd like to see your detailed math.

Clinton's going to be so dismayed by Bernie's enthusiasm that she just drops out apparently.

[Beet]

Okay- Since I am facing massive amounts of skepticism here, let us examine the race since Super Tuesday.

Kansas, Nebraska, Maine, Louisiana - less than 1 week after ST. They basically go as you would expect. Sanders does very well in Kansas and Maine especially, he does a little better than expected in LA and a little worse in NE.

Michigan, Mississippi- about exactly 1 week after ST. MS, Sanders did not campaign in, goes as you would expect. Michigan, he pulls off a 22-point defiance of the polls, the biggest upset in primary polling history.

ST 2: There are five states at stake here, which Sanders was initially down by as much as 30 points. Florida, 70% of the votes were already cast. So he's scrambling to replicate his Michigan upset (the biggest in primary history) in 5 states, within just the space of 1 week. IMO, he pulled off about 2 1/2 (Illinois, North Carolina, and the 1/2 is Missouri). Florida was never on the map because of the early vote.

Since ST 2: 5-6 Sanders, 6-6 if you count election day voting in Arizona. Crucially, he has gone from underperforming Obama's 2008 performance in caucuses to overperforming in them. The man is a campaigning dynamo.

IceSpear- here is my state by state projection:
http://DemRace.com/?share=3wuCFNt1

[Mehmentum]

Huh? NH is a swing state. The last 3 Dem nominees have been good for NH though. It looks like this one will be, too.

IceSpear: As much as I believe Helen Purcell is an incompetent, they did have models based on previous elections that gave plausible estimates of turnout. Election day turnout in Maricopa clearly blew out those projections. We now have more contests with reports of ballots running out, than contests where ballots didn't run out.

And Hillary won by 17 points. I don't get your point.

A win based on the low turnout phase of the election (absentee ballots cast weeks earlier). Election day was like 10-15% of the total vote (which Sanders won by 20 points). But still, it was a primary.

Okay. Just out of curiosity, how is Bernie going to win the nomination? I'd like to see your detailed math.

I actually did the math, its pretty crazy.  

Here's what I had, before tonight:

Alaska: Sanders +60, +8 delegates over Clinton (he's actually going to get 10 more Clinton)
Hawaii: Sanders +30, +7 delegates (looks about right based on the rumors)
Washington: Sanders +50, +51 delegates (it looks like its going to be more like Sanders +44)

Wisconsin: Sanders +30 (lol), +26 delegates
Wyoming: Sanders +60, +8 delegates

New York: Sanders +2, +5 delegates

Connecticut: Sanders +10, +5 delegates
Delaware: Clinton +5, -1 delegate
Maryland: Clinton +10, -9 delegates
Pennsylvania: Sanders +10, +19 delegates
Rhode Island: Sanders +10, +2 delegates

Indiana: Sanders +10, +9 delegates
Guam, Clinton +1, -1 delegate
West Virginia: Sanders +40, +11 delegates

Kentucky: Sanders +20, +11 delegates
Oregon: Sanders +30, +19 delegates
Virgin Islands: Clinton +1, -1 delegate
Puerto Rico: Clinton +1 (lol), -1 delegate

Montana: Sanders +50, +11 delegates
New Jersey: Clinton +5, -6 delegates
New Mexico: Sanders +10, +4 delegates
North Dakota: Sanders +50, +10 delegates
South Dakota: Sanders +30, +6 delegates
California: Sanders +25 (lol), +119 delegates
D.C.: Clinton +20, -4 delegates.

Overall, this gives Sanders a 13 delegate lead over Clinton.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[Mehmentum]

Crucially, he has gone from underperforming Obama's 2008 performance in caucuses to overperforming in them. The man is a campaigning dynamo.

The change in caucus performance has nothing to do with Sanders, and everything to do with Clinton not even trying in those caucuses, unlike her strategy before the 15th.

And 'crucially'?  There are only 2 caucuses left.  Sanders doing well in caucuses has almost no relevance on the race going forward.