How did Eisenhower Lose Missouri in 1956 after Carrying it in 1952?

[rbt48]

Eisenhower carried Missouri in 1952 by nearly 30K votes:
959,429   50.71   929,830   49.14

In 1956, he lost it by about 4K votes:
914,289   49.89   918,273   50.11

The turnout in 1956 dropped by almost 47,000 votes.  Nationwide, the turnout went up by about 270,000 votes.

In 1956, though his Nationwide vote portion grew from 55.18% to 57.37%, Eisenhower received a smaller portion of the vote in 19 states, as follows:

State   1956 Republican   %   1952 Republican %     Vote gain/loss   % vote change California   3,027,668   55.39   2,897,310   56.35      130358   0.96 Colorado   394,479   60.04   379,782   60.27      14697   0.23 Idaho   166,979   61.17   180,707   65.41      13728      4.24 Iowa      729,187   59.06   808,906   63.75      79719      4.69 Kansas   566,878   65.44   616,302   68.77      49424      3.33 Minnesota   719,302   53.68   763,211   55.33      43909      1.65 Mississippi   60,685   24.46   112,966   39.56      52281      15.1 Missouri   914,289   49.89   959,429   50.71      45140      0.82 Montana   154,933   57.13   157,394   59.39      2461      2.26 Nebraska   378,108   65.51   421,603   69.15      43495      3.64 Nevada   56,049   57.97   50,502   61.45      5547   3.48 North Dakota   156,766   61.72   191,712   70.97      34946      9.25 Oregon   406,393   55.21   420,815   60.54      14422      5.33 SouthCarolina   75,700      25.18   168,082   49.28      92382      24.1 South Dakota   171,569   58.39   203,857   69.27      32288      10.88 Tennessee   462,288   49.21   446,147   49.99         16141   0.78 Virginia   386,459   55.37   349,037   56.32         37422   0.95 Washington   620,430   53.91   599,107   54.33         21323   0.42 Wyoming   74,573      60.08   81,049      62.71      6476      2.63

Mississippi and South Carolina were aberrations as there were independent tickets for Eisenhower that lowered his GOP vote totals.  Except for Virginia and Tennessee (and Kefauver was the Dem VP candidate), the remaining 15 states are all west of the Mississippi River.  So, clearly, Eisenhower was less popular in the West due to the farm economy or other reasons.

Perhaps agricultural issues explain how he narrowly lost Missouri.  But it otherwise seems hard to explain when one considers these realities:
- he did better in 1956 in 31 states,
- he turned defeats in 1952 into victories in Kentucky, West Virginia, and Louisiana in 1956 and nearly did so in North Carolina.

Edit:  Oh, I should have noted that from 1904 until 2008, except for 1956, Missouri voted with the winner every single time, for 25 out of 26 Presidential elections.  Between William McKinley in 1900, and Barack Obama in 2008, 1956 really sticks out as a sore thumb.  Of course, this isn't relevant in explaining the 1956 results, but it does accentuate how much of an outlier the 1956 result actually is.

I don't have access to county data to see if Eisenhower did worse enough in rural counties to explain the loss, or if big city machines and perhaps some fraud (St Louis and Kansas City) might have accounted for this loss.  I appreciate any scholarly insight others might have.

[sg0508]

It's hard to say. Keep in mind that Ike overall, was stronger in the northeast and south in '56 than '52, but weaker out west, despite carry every state again north and west of MO.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I don't know if the farm economy was bad enough to work against him.  But I wouldn't be surprised the Kansas City political machine that practically bought and made Harry Truman pulled some shenanigans to put Stevenson over the top (and the same goes for St. Louis).  I would imagine the black vote in St. Louis also helped Stevenson some.

[Sir Mohamed]

Yes, hard to say. Maybe because of it was actually leaning Dem, but voted GOP in 1952 due to Truman’s unpopularity (his home state). But that’s just a theory. I also asked myself why FDR lost MI in 1940 but won it back in 1944.

[rbt48]

Michigan in 1944 was due to the soldier vote, which FDR won by ~90%.

[President Johnson]

Michigan in 1944 was due to the soldier vote, which FDR won by ~90%.

It was also very very close in 1940. Around 0.1% or so.

[rbt48]

I just sent this topic to the Chair of the Political Science Department at the University of Missouri suggesting it as a possible senior thesis or even master's degree thesis topic.  I'll let you know if I get a response.

[TDAS04]

It seems that Ike's support dropped in the agricultural midwest (take a look at the farming states further north, especially the Dakotas).

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Michigan in 1944 was due to the soldier vote, which FDR won by ~90%.

It was also very very close in 1940. Around 0.1% or so.

I suspect the main reason Willkie took Michigan in 1940 was his strength in German-American communities.