MO Senate; Roy Blunt may be in trouble after all

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

http://m.pitch.com/FastPitch/archives/2016/03/04/is-roy-blunts-senate-seat-in-trouble


Jason Kander continues to exceed expectations and can put MO back into play. Like OH, Kander is an upstart moderate Dem challenging a freshman 2010 GOPer

[IceSpear]

Like McCain, Burr, and the open IN seat, Blunt could certainly fall in the event of a total GOP implosion (a distinct possibility at this juncture.)

[This account no longer in use.]

Like McCain, Burr, and the open IN seat, Blunt could certainly fall in the event of a total GOP implosion (a distinct possibility at this juncture.)

Very true. Also, both Cook and Daily Kos have Grassley as only Likely R, for what it's worth/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As long as Clinton is keeping OH/Va and FL at the natl stage, and not on defense in CO & Iowa, more Senate seats will come into play.

Kander as well as Strickland are the right blue doggs that Dems need in this polarized environment.

[Kingpoleon]

> Strickland
> upstart

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I've thought all along that Kander could win.  And if Trump is the GOP nominee, I suspect he will.

[user12345]

Blunt's approvals are horrendous. A President Trump would probably have higher approvals than Blunt does now. This will be a race to watch if Trump becomes the nominee and drags the Republican ticket down.

[IceSpear]

Blunt's approvals are horrendous. A President Trump would probably have higher approvals than Blunt does now. This will be a race to watch if Trump becomes the nominee and drags the Republican ticket down.

Are Roy Blunt and Claire McCaskill the most unpopular Senate duo in the country? Also, why is Blunt so unpopular? He strikes me as an inoffensive, boring Kit Bond type....

I'm not from Missouri, but I have a few ideas. For one thing, his son was an extremely unpopular governor, so the Blunt dynasty is not well liked. Secondly, he's just a bland generic right wing establishment shill, pleasing nobody outside of Vosem types. Thirdly, he only won so convincingly in 2010 because of the wave, he actually started off trailing. And fourth, just look at the guy. He looks creepy as hell.

[Xing]

I'd love to see Kander beat Blunt, but I'll believe it when I see it. MO is tough terrain for Democrats, and we all know the reason McCaskill won so easily in 2012...

[Vosem]

It must also be kept in mind that Blunt is super, super-establishment. He was in leadership during the Hastert years and was the favorite to succeed Hastert as caucus leader in early 2007; Boehner was then the conservative upstart who beat him in an upset victory and then relegated him to the backbenches (he then decided he had no future to the House and got lucky when he picked 2010 as the year to try for a Senate promotion). Some of the other points IceSpear made, about his unpopular son Governor and the fact that he started off trailing in 2010, are also correct. His temperament is exactly wrong for 2016.

Secondly, he's just a bland generic right wing establishment shill, pleasing nobody outside of Vosem types.

Libertarian-leaning Russian-speakers? I'm no fan of the current GOP establishment by any means; I just recognize the product that _trump is offering is meaningfully even worse (might even be worse than Generic D, honestly) and right now the establishment is the only place I have to vote for. This is more broadly indicative of the GOP establishment's problem -- they're an acceptable product for lots of people, but they're not the preferred option for anyone, so desertions occur very frequently and they're easy to blame for whenever anything goes wrong, since no one feels particularly attached to them. The Democratic establishment is selling something that a large number of their voters actually like.

And, anyway, "bland generic right wing" is exactly what Missouri wants from a Senator. They don't like Blunt because of issues specific to Blunt himself, not any problems with his ideological positioning. Even so, Kander only has a chance to win if there is a massive collapse up and down the ballot (which is a plausible scenario, unfortunately).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This seat will only flip if Dems win the House, and there is now a 30% chance up from 10%

[Kingpoleon]

Blunt's approvals are horrendous. A President Trump would probably have higher approvals than Blunt does now. This will be a race to watch if Trump becomes the nominee and drags the Republican ticket down.

Are Roy Blunt and Claire McCaskill the most unpopular Senate duo in the country? Also, why is Blunt so unpopular? He strikes me as an inoffensive, boring Kit Bond type....

I'm not from Missouri, but I have a few ideas. For one thing, his son was an extremely unpopular governor, so the Blunt dynasty is not well liked. Secondly, he's just a bland generic right wing establishment shill, pleasing nobody outside of Vosem types. Thirdly, he only won so convincingly in 2010 because of the wave, he actually started off trailing. And fourth, just look at the guy. He looks creepy as hell.

IceSpear, you really have no room to talk about Vosem's "partisanship".

[The Arizonan]

MO USSEN (Remington): US Sen Roy Blunt (R) 44%, Sec of St Jason Kander (D) 37%.

Is it still possible for Jason Kander to win?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The ads are just starting and Roy Blunt has held a big lead in the polls, until now, since Trump cratered in polls

[pbrower2a]

Like McCain, Burr, and the open IN seat, Blunt could certainly fall in the event of a total GOP implosion (a distinct possibility at this juncture.)

Very true. Also, both Cook and Daily Kos have Grassley as only Likely R, for what it's worth/

Senator Grassley falls if the nomination of a successor to the late Justice Antonin Scalia develops a stench, and he is involved. The latest poll showed him enough above the threshold of roughly 45% that gives slightly more than a 50% chance of re-election, down significantly from over 50% (which makes re-election a foregone conclusion).

I can't understand what Senator Mitch McConnell is doing here. He could have said that President Obama will not get away with someone corrupt, extreme, unready, unqualified, or who is a political crony. Holding out for the next Republican President? That high-risk gamble  puts the Republican Senate majority at risk and may also ensure that the successor to President Obama be a Democrat. 

Iowa votes for moderates in Presidential years, and Senator Grassley has long cultivated an image as a moderate. Should such an image be destroyed, Senator Grassley stands to be defeated.     

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only second tier state that will flip is AZ, due Tdump's poor standing with Latinos

[MATTROSE94]

I've thought all along that Kander could win.  And if Trump is the GOP nominee, I suspect he will.

That's what I thought since 2013 as well.

[/]

I literally just saw an ad on YouTube attacking Jason Kander.

I live in North Carolina.

[Heisenberg]

I literally just saw an ad on YouTube attacking Jason Kander.

I live in North Carolina.

Was it the "Spending Party" ad? (New member here, sorry I can't post a link to it.)

[syntaxerror]

This is the race i'm paying most attention too.

Think Kander can squeak it out.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

And fourth, just look at the guy. He looks creepy as hell.

He looks like a poorly embalmed corpse.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Dems can dream all they want but at the end of the day

Like McCain, Burr, and the open IN seat, Blunt could certainly fall in the event of a total GOP implosion (a distinct possibility at this juncture.)

Very true. Also, both Cook and Daily Kos have Grassley as only Likely R, for what it's worth/

Senator Grassley falls if the nomination of a successor to the late Justice Antonin Scalia develops a stench, and he is involved. The latest poll showed him enough above the threshold of roughly 45% that gives slightly more than a 50% chance of re-election, down significantly from over 50% (which makes re-election a foregone conclusion).

I can't understand what Senator Mitch McConnell is doing here. He could have said that President Obama will not get away with someone corrupt, extreme, unready, unqualified, or who is a political crony. Holding out for the next Republican President? That high-risk gamble  puts the Republican Senate majority at risk and may also ensure that the successor to President Obama be a Democrat. 

Iowa votes for moderates in Presidential years, and Senator Grassley has long cultivated an image as a moderate. Should such an image be destroyed, Senator Grassley stands to be defeated.     

Barring a major implosion from a Trump nomination, Grassley will win reelection.  That is, unless he goes along with McConnell in blocking Garland's nomination.