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| |-+  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter, Justice TJ)
| | |-+  The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread
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Author Topic: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread  (Read 108359 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: March 29, 2016, 07:10:53 pm »
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Time to start this thread, as the 2020 presidential primary season is upon us.  I will post news about the potential 2020 presidential candidates making moves towards running in this thread, including their public statements on the matter, visits to early primary states, etc.

First up: Tom Cotton headed to South Carolina:

http://www.dailyjournal.net/view/story/3a167f82393241a281cceb57aaa47e5e/SC--GOP-Silver-Elephant-Dinner

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Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton is headlining what the South Carolina Republican Party calls its largest and most prestigious gathering.

State GOP Chairman Matt Moore announced Monday the U.S. senator will be the main speaker at the party's 49th annual Silver Elephant Dinner on May 6.

Last year the event was headlined by Priebus, but the previous four years it was Jindal, Cruz, Rubio, and Santorum, all of whom went on to run for president.
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« Reply #1 on: March 29, 2016, 07:18:17 pm »
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Oh. YEAH.

It's on like Donkey Kong up in this. Thanks for taking on the duty, Mr. Morden!
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« Reply #2 on: March 29, 2016, 07:31:27 pm »
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Exciting.
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« Reply #3 on: March 29, 2016, 07:46:53 pm »
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It's never too early Tongue.
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« Reply #4 on: March 29, 2016, 10:52:53 pm »
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Wikipedia mentions Justin Amash, Chris Christie, Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio as potential Republican candidates, as well as Cory Booker and Andrew Cuomo on the Democratic side. There is also, of course, Kanye West, although I doubt he'll actually go through with it.
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« Reply #5 on: March 29, 2016, 10:54:26 pm »
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Feel The Cotton!

(That's actually clever considering that cotton is a material you can feel #JokeExplainer)
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« Reply #6 on: March 29, 2016, 11:20:11 pm »
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If D wins 2016,

it is obvious that Cotton & Haley will run. Maybe Paul again if we get stuck in a terrible intervention. I would like to see Baker run but 4 years is not enough time for the pro-life simpletons to give up their sway in the R party. Rubio can't run unless he's in the governors office in 2018 and even then it'll look terrible, like he never wants to hold a job - he wouldn't be successful against cotton or haley. I am confident Rubio will not be have a successful potus run in 2020.

Adding Gardner, Mike Lee, Flake, Sasse, Ernst and Thune as potentials.

If they win relection: portman & ayotte

If R wins in 2016,

Booker, Harris, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, & Murphy.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7 on: March 29, 2016, 11:49:07 pm »
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Wikipedia mentions Justin Amash, Chris Christie, Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio as potential Republican candidates, as well as Cory Booker and Andrew Cuomo on the Democratic side. There is also, of course, Kanye West, although I doubt he'll actually go through with it.

Right, but that's mixing up people who have themselves said or done something concrete to indicate an interest in running, and those for whom others have speculated that they might run.  The purpose of this thread is to compile tangible evidence that points towards interest on the part of the potential candidate himself (or herself).  So if someone explicitly says that they're not ruling out running, post that here.  Or if they go to an early primary state or go to CPAC or something, post that here.  Whatever indicators we can find out there for presidential candidates, that should be posted here.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8 on: March 30, 2016, 02:47:14 am »
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In this story from a few days ago, the New York Times said that "Rubio is likely to run for president again in 2020":

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/28/us/politics/ted-cruz-names-friends-but-silence-from-gop-brass-deafens.html?mtrref=undefined&mtrref=www.nytimes.com&_r=0

But it's not clear what that's based on.  Should be noted that during Rubio's post-dropout press Q&A, he was asked about a future run for president, and he said that he wasn't thinking that far ahead.
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« Reply #9 on: March 30, 2016, 05:01:24 am »
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Some more possible indicators…this year, in addition to the remaining presidential candidates themselves, the following people did speeches at CPAC:

Joni Ernst
Carly Fiorina
Mike Lee
Paul Ryan
Tim Scott
Scott Walker

Fiorina and Walker of course ran for prez this year, but they’d already dropped out of the race by the time of CPAC, so their appearances could be read as interested in either being VP this year or president in 2020.

Also, the Des Moines Register had a story a few days ago about the fact that many eventual presidential candidates from years past started out by doing surrogate visits to Iowa for other candidates in the previous cycle.  Here are the names of some of the out-of-state politicians who visited Iowa in the past year in order to campaign for their presidential candidate of choice.  Some of these might run for president themselves in 2020 or later, or maybe for vice president this year:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2016/03/27/whos-running-president-2020-iowa-visits-offer-hints/82230962/

Tammy Baldwin
Corey Booker
Julian Castro
Bill de Blasio
Kirsten Gillibrand
Tim Kaine
Amy Klobuchar
Tom Perez

Marsha Blackburn
Jim DeMint
Cory Gardner
Mike Lee
Kristi Noem
Sarah Palin
Ben Sasse
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: March 30, 2016, 05:15:55 am »
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A few other tidbits about individual candidates.

Justin Amash last year:

link

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"I'm 35 now, so anything is possible," said Amash, laughing as he replied to a question about his own presidential aspirations at a rally to welcome Republican presidential hopeful U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., to Grand Rapids on Monday.

During a July 2014 meeting with The Grand Rapids Press' editorial board, Amash was questioned about seeking other roles beyond a sitting representative.

"I'd love to be (House) speaker some day," said Amash at the time. "I love the idea of bringing people together on common ground.

In 2014, the New York Post reported that Cuomo was looking at running for president in 2020, should the Republicans win the White House this time around:

The New York Post says that Cuomo has no intention of challenging Clinton in 2016 (duh), but is gearing up to run for president in 2020, should the GOP win in 2016:

http://nypost.com/2014/11/03/cuomo-might-run-for-president-in-2020-if-hillary-loses-in-2016/

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Gov. Cuomo’s new autobiography, his recently announced plans to travel to China, Italy and Israel, and his campaign vow to serve a full four-year term if re-elected are the early stages of a well- thought-out, under-the-radar strategy for him to run for president in 2020, not 2016, The Post has learned.

It’s a six-year strategy based on the ironic assumption that Hillary Rodham Clinton, the all-but-certain Democratic candidate for president in 2016, is defeated by the Republican candidate that year, whoever it turns out to be, Democratic Party insiders said.

Cuomo, who has privately ruled out challenging Clinton because he knows he can’t beat her, is “focused on the possibility that Hillary could easily lose the election and what that means for his political future,’’ said a top Democratic official with longstanding ties to the governor.

“If Hillary does go down and a Republican wins — and that could certainly happen after eight years of Obama — then the Democratic field will be cleared for 2020 and Andrew can make his move,’’ the official said.


Last year, Booker said he didn’t want to be president:


http://thehill.com/230020-senate-dem-denies-white-house-aspirations

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In a panel segment with host Larry Wilmore called “Keep it 100,” guests were asked to give answers that were “100 percent real” and authentic.

“Bring it,” Booker said as Wilmore, a “Daily Show” alum, prepared to deliver his question to the lawmaker.

“Do you want to be president?” Wilmore asked.

“Uh, no,” Booker — whom many have speculated might be eyeing a White House bid — replied with a chuckle.

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Senator Cris
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« Reply #11 on: March 30, 2016, 07:30:53 am »
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IT BEGINS!
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« Reply #12 on: March 30, 2016, 07:35:16 am »
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Some more possible indicators…this year, in addition to the remaining presidential candidates themselves, the following people did speeches at CPAC:

Joni Ernst
Carly Fiorina
Mike Lee
Paul Ryan
Tim Scott
Scott Walker

Fiorina and Walker of course ran for prez this year, but they’d already dropped out of the race by the time of CPAC, so their appearances could be read as interested in either being VP this year or president in 2020.

Also, the Des Moines Register had a story a few days ago about the fact that many eventual presidential candidates from years past started out by doing surrogate visits to Iowa for other candidates in the previous cycle.  Here are the names of some of the out-of-state politicians who visited Iowa in the past year in order to campaign for their presidential candidate of choice.  Some of these might run for president themselves in 2020 or later, or maybe for vice president this year:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2016/03/27/whos-running-president-2020-iowa-visits-offer-hints/82230962/

Tammy Baldwin
Corey Booker
Julian Castro
Bill de Blasio
Kirsten Gillibrand
Tim Kaine
Amy Klobuchar
Tom Perez

Marsha Blackburn
Jim DeMint
Cory Gardner
Mike Lee
Kristi Noem
Sarah Palin
Ben Sasse


I can share more a bit later, but I was at CPAC this year, and some of them (like Walker and Ryan) had very high profile speaking times (Walker was the opening speaker, for instance).  But, I actually think some of Walker's moves might be towards getting nominated this year as a compromise choice.
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« Reply #13 on: March 30, 2016, 07:45:07 am »
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Depending on which Republican wins, there might even be a primary challenge. If it's Senator Cruz or Governor Kasich, then they'll be safe, but if it's trump...
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #14 on: March 30, 2016, 08:01:28 am »
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33 Senate seats will be up for grabs in 2020. Among these 33 seats, there are some Senators who might be interested in running for President: Tom Cotton (R-AR), Cory Gardner (R-CO), Joni Ernst (R-IA), Gary Peters (D-MI), Al Franken (D-MN), Ben Sasse (R-NE), Cory Booker (R-NJ), Mark Warner (D-VA), Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV).

Back in November, an Arkansas lawmaker proposed a bill that would allow candidates to seek multiple federal offices in the same election. I don't know what's the status of that bill right now.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/11/tom-cotton-president-2020_n_6849064.html
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« Reply #15 on: March 31, 2016, 03:52:24 pm »
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One other CPAC note:

Scott Walker stayed around CPAC for a few hours after his speech and was willing to talk with attendees and take pictures with them.  He was by far the most high profile politician to do that (the only other ones that I met at anything other than a formal organized event were Kelli Ward and Jim Gilmore).
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« Reply #16 on: April 01, 2016, 10:32:05 am »
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Did Kanye say he'd run as an independent, or as a Democrat? A Kanye primary of President Hillary would be one for the books.
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« Reply #17 on: April 04, 2016, 11:00:34 pm »
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Walker keeping his options open.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #18 on: April 05, 2016, 12:53:43 am »
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Some excerpts:

Quote
The Wisconsin governor left a key piece of his national political infrastructure in place: Our American Revival, the tax-exempt "527" organization that housed his pre-presidential campaign operation, continues to collect funding from big-money GOP donors and fund some of Walker’s travel.
.
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A D.C. Republican was more blunt: "The 527 ... leaves all options open for what he wants to do next," the Republican said. "Run for governor, not run, run for president in 2020 — it's a vehicle for whatever he wants."
.
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Walker's schedule in recent months has included not only bill signings in Green Bay and constituent meetings in Prairie du Chien, but also fundraisers and other political events from Honolulu to West Palm Beach. A Wisconsin Democrat spotted the governor at LaGuardia Airport in New York City earlier this month. And Walker was a featured speaker at RGA events in D.C. in February, where he also raised money to pay down his presidential campaign's debt.
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #19 on: April 05, 2016, 09:45:04 am »
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Some excerpts:

Quote
The Wisconsin governor left a key piece of his national political infrastructure in place: Our American Revival, the tax-exempt "527" organization that housed his pre-presidential campaign operation, continues to collect funding from big-money GOP donors and fund some of Walker’s travel.
.
.
.
A D.C. Republican was more blunt: "The 527 ... leaves all options open for what he wants to do next," the Republican said. "Run for governor, not run, run for president in 2020 — it's a vehicle for whatever he wants."
.
.
.
Walker's schedule in recent months has included not only bill signings in Green Bay and constituent meetings in Prairie du Chien, but also fundraisers and other political events from Honolulu to West Palm Beach. A Wisconsin Democrat spotted the governor at LaGuardia Airport in New York City earlier this month. And Walker was a featured speaker at RGA events in D.C. in February, where he also raised money to pay down his presidential campaign's debt.


I wonder if this means he is keeping his options open for 2016 as a white knight nominee?
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« Reply #20 on: April 05, 2016, 10:29:52 am »
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Rubio allies are urging him to run again in 2020, and he's said to be open to it:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/04/04/politics/marco-rubio-political-future/index.html

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In private conversations with supporters and donors over the last several weeks, the 44-year-old Rubio repeatedly gets this advice: Run again, potentially in 2020, according to several people familiar with the conversations.

And Rubio, sources said, is certainly open to it. Some of his allies are even urging Rubio to withhold supporting Ted Cruz because such endorsements have made little difference this campaign season and the two could face off again in a future contest.

Despite his presidential stumbles this year, Rubio plans to be visible during the campaign season for House and Senate candidates, sources said. In particular, Rubio hopes to become a high-profile surrogate for many down-ballot Republicans who may decide to run away from their party's nominee if it's either Cruz or Donald Trump, the sources said.
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« Reply #21 on: April 06, 2016, 03:08:23 am »
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You have to have a lot of balls (Can Angel confirm?) to think about running for president again 3 weeks after getting demolished in your home state by a reality TV star and dropping out of the race in disgrace.
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« Reply #22 on: April 06, 2016, 08:52:15 pm »
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Rubio's such a petty glory hound.
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« Reply #23 on: April 07, 2016, 08:23:18 am »
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If D wins 2016,

it is obvious that Cotton & Haley will run. Maybe Paul again if we get stuck in a terrible intervention. I would like to see Baker run but 4 years is not enough time for the pro-life simpletons to give up their sway in the R party. Rubio can't run unless he's in the governors office in 2018 and even then it'll look terrible, like he never wants to hold a job - he wouldn't be successful against cotton or haley. I am confident Rubio will not be have a successful potus run in 2020.

Adding Gardner, Mike Lee, Flake, Sasse, Ernst and Thune as potentials.

If they win relection: portman & ayotte

If R wins in 2016,

Booker, Harris, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, & Murphy.
Murphy won't win the senate seat though. #rondesantis2016
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« Reply #24 on: April 11, 2016, 12:11:55 pm »
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If a Republican wins, Julian Castro or Sherrod Brown can be possibilities
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