The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[MAINEiac4434]

Merkely is clearly testing the waters in the case that no other progressives run, and in said scenario I could easily see myself supporting him. Unfortunately, though, it's really hard to see someone as uncharismatic as he is winning the nomination nowadays. That being said, of Sanders ends up winning the nomination, I think that Jeff Merkley would be a perfect choice for running mate, IMO.

I agree, but I find it very hard to believe neither Warren nor Sanders run.

[Holmes]

I agree that Sanders is likely to run now. If you asked me a few months ago, I wouldn't have been so sure.

Don't hink Merkley's a good running mate though. Doesn't really add anything to the ticket at all other than youth, which so many more better prospects also have.

[Mr. Morden]

I agree that Sanders is likely to run now. If you asked me a few months ago, I wouldn't have been so sure.

I am still a Sanders-running skeptic.  I agree that he's "making moves" that suggest interest (as are a couple dozen other people), but he's old enough that, even given clues like that, I price in a discount on his odds of running due to his age.  I am just not sure Sanders (or anyone) will ultimately agree to throw themselves into a high pressure job like POTUS at near 80 years old, when the possibility of imminent physical and mental decline is creeping up on you.  Shaving a couple of years off your life when you're 55 or 60 is one thing, but when you're 79?  I'm not so sure.

But exactly how big a discount you apply is entirely subjective.  PredictIt now has him at a 47% chance of running, but I'd put it in the 30s in my own personal odds.  But your mileage may vary.

[varesurgent]

What's Sanders' relationship with Warren? Does one declaring first keep the other out?

[Mr. Morden]

What's Sanders' relationship with Warren? Does one declaring first keep the other out?

I don't think the relationship between the candidates matters as much as people seem to think.  Fred Thompson ran against his friend John McCain and Marco Rubio ran against mentor Jeb Bush, for example.  Potential candidates don't defer to others because they're friends.  They defer because the other candidate running steals away part of their base, and makes them less likely to win the nomination.

So from that perspective, sure, Warren is less likely to run if Sanders is in the race purely because his being in the race hurts her chances of being nominated, so she might no longer think running is worthwhile.  And I guess the reverse is true to a lesser extent.  Sanders obviously has more of a built-in base than Warren does, but his age might make him more reluctant to run unless he's supremely confident of victory, and if Warren has already declared, and siphoning off some %age of voters who might otherwise vote for him, then maybe he concludes that that dings his odds enough that he's not going to bother.

But politicians tend to have large egos, so maybe both would be confident of victory regardless.  I don't think we can assume that either of them would necessarily defer to the other, so both of them running at the same time certainly seems possible.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Aside from Gender, what are the differences between Sanders and Warren? It seems that if both ran they'd be going for the exact same group of voters, split it, and hand the nomination to someone more establishment.

[Mr. Morden]

Aside from Gender, what are the differences between Sanders and Warren? It seems that if both ran they'd be going for the exact same group of voters, split it, and hand the nomination to someone more establishment.

Well, that is what happened (in reverse) in the GOP primaries last year, no?  "Establishment" Republicans agreed that there needed to be one "establishment" champion to take down Trump, but rather than all agreeing on who that should be in the invisible primary stage, multiple establishment candidates all decided to run at the same time (spending much of the primary campaign beating each other up), and they split the vote of that faction multiple ways, which eased Trump's path to the nomination.

[GGover]

The next Kennedy weighs his next move

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[MAINEiac4434]

It's not time yet, Joe. Come back in 2036.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's not time yet, Joe. Come back in 2036.

Not looking forward to the New Hampshire Democratic Primary Ballot having 60 names on it, are we?

[NewYorkExpress]

It's not time yet, Joe. Come back in 2036.

It'll never be time for another Kennedy.

[TrumpBritt24]

Kamala Harris and Kirsten Gillibrand will lead Democrats to 2020 victory - The Hill, 09/03/17

Can't link article, though it highlights the two.

[Possiblymaybe]

Has begun seeking staff: Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, Sen. Chris Murphy (Conn.), Rep. Tim Ryan (Ohio

https://www.axios.com/axios-am-2480203706.html

[TrumpBritt24]

Has begun seeking staff: Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, Sen. Chris Murphy (Conn.), Rep. Tim Ryan (Ohio)

> Wild cards: Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo

Any info/opinions about her?

[TheSaint250]

Has begun seeking staff: Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, Sen. Chris Murphy (Conn.), Rep. Tim Ryan (Ohio)

> Wild cards: Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo

Any info/opinions about her?

I don't think so. She's not well-liked by her own state that much and hasn't put herself out there much.

[MAINEiac4434]

Has begun seeking staff: Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, Sen. Chris Murphy (Conn.), Rep. Tim Ryan (Ohio)

> Wild cards: Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo

Any info/opinions about her?

Isn't she monumentally unpopular?

[Mr. Morden]

Tim Ryan says he doesn't know if he's going to run for president in 2020:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrPVw7PdgNg&t=4m30s

[Mr. Morden]

New Cosmo story on Klobuchar:

http://www.cosmopolitan.com/politics/a12152695/amy-klobuchar-interview-president-2020/

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[Mr. Morden]

Trump to hold a meeting with NY and NJ elected officials, including Booker, Christie, Cuomo, Gillibrand, and Schumer:

link

No word on whether 2020 will be mentioned. 

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Boston Globe story on Warren's religious life is stirring significant talk of her presidential ambitions. https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2017/09/02/religion-constant-part-warren-life/ndGztmfK5veAGMI6A4OKEI/story.html

[McGovernForPrez]

Boston Globe story on Warren's religious life is stirring significant talk of her presidential ambitions. https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2017/09/02/religion-constant-part-warren-life/ndGztmfK5veAGMI6A4OKEI/story.html

Wow. This really paints Warren in a new light for me. If she were to use that side of her more I think she'd be more relate-able to the broader electorate. If Trump remains unpopular with the Evangelical community I could see her peeling off some voters from him there.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I'm kind of interested in Warren as the nominee now. I don't know. I think she's a good match to take on the President one on one. She won't have to tip toe nearly as much as the 2016 nominee because all he can do is call her Pocahontas.

[Mr. Smith]

I'm kind of interested in Warren as the nominee now. I don't know. I think she's a good match to take on the President one on one. She won't have to tip toe nearly as much as the 2016 nominee because all he can do is call her Pocahontas.

I wouldn't be so optimistic 'bout that, but I agree with the rest.

[McGovernForPrez]

I'm kind of interested in Warren as the nominee now. I don't know. I think she's a good match to take on the President one on one. She won't have to tip toe nearly as much as the 2016 nominee because all he can do is call her Pocahontas.

I think it helps to make her angry rhetoric more pallatable. Her allows her to tap into a softer warmer side that she'll desperately need to win. I think it'll help combat the sexism she'll be facing. I wasn't a big fan of her running despite liking her positions, but I might've changed my mind.

[Alabama_Indy10]

I'm kind of interested in Warren as the nominee now. I don't know. I think she's a good match to take on the President one on one. She won't have to tip toe nearly as much as the 2016 nominee because all he can do is call her Pocahontas.

I think it helps to make her angry rhetoric more pallatable. Her allows her to tap into a softer warmer side that she'll desperately need to win. I think it'll help combat the sexism she'll be facing. I wasn't a big fan of her running despite liking her positions, but I might've changed my mind.

Oh yeah. She'll lose because the whole country is sexist