The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[RogueBeaver]

Warren doesn't sound thrilled about running.

[Confused Democrat]

Warren doesn't sound thrilled about running.

I wouldn't be surprised if she didn't run for the nomination in 2020. I don't know why people think she's so likely to run.

[Mr. Morden]

Warren doesn't sound thrilled about running.

Oh, I don’t know, I think you can read that piece either way.  To me, what’s actually notable here is that she acknowledges for the first time that running for president in 2016 is something that she seriously considered:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/elizabeth-warren-describes-why-she-didnt-run-for-white-house-in-new-book-1492104021

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This doesn’t really move me to downgrade my assessment of the probability that she’ll run in 2020.  Her husband warned her that a presidential race would be gruelling, but don’t almost all presidential spouses say that?  You don’t think Michelle Obama said the same thing to Barack?  IIRC, Fred Thompson’s wife encouraged him to run, but that was a rare case in which the spouse was eager to take the plunge.

To me, she’s acknowledging here that the presidency is something she might be interested in pursuing, and I could certainly read it as a cost/benefit thing.  Running in 2016 wasn’t worth the personal cost to her, and I imagine the chances of success (when running against HRC, who was presumed to be heavily favored for the nomination) would have been part of that calculation.  But if she’s seen as a co-frontrunner going into 2020, it’s not clear to me that she’ll come to the same decision.  The very words she uses to describe the '16 decision ("stay buckled down and keep doing my Senate job") sounds like all the non-denials the presidential candidates give about how they're just focused on their current job and not thinking ahead to anything else....yet.

[Mr. Morden]

Warren doesn't sound thrilled about running.

I wouldn't be surprised if she didn't run for the nomination in 2020. I don't know why people think she's so likely to run.

I think she’s high on the list of people who are most likely to run, yet still less than 50% likely to do so.  Because it’s so early, and things can change, the only people I currently rate as more than 50% likely to run on the Democratic side are O’Malley and Booker.  But obviously there will be plenty of other candidates in the race, and Warren is high on that list of possibles (probably somewhere in the 40-50% range on chance of running).

Why is she high on that list of possibles?  The biggest reasons are:

1) Unlike in the 2016 cycle, she doesn’t rule it out when asked (though apparently she was thinking about it even in the 2016 cycle).  So at least that’s *something*.  Potential candidates who answer “maybe” tend to be more likely to run than those who give Shermanesque denials (though of course, neither answer is determinative at this early stage).

2) She joined the Armed Services Committee this year.  Senators rarely change their committee assignments, and Armed Services is a common stepping stone to running for national office, since it gives you national security cred.

3) She’s speaking at the CAP Ideas Conference next month, along with a bunch of other 2020 possibles.

4) She’s not seen as a longshot to win the nomination should she run.  Her chances of winning have got to figure into her calculus on the cost/benefit of running.  I mean, she’s leading the betting markets right now in predictions on who’s going to win the nomination.  People who are leading the markets at this very early stage don’t always win the nomination, but they do usually at least run.

Anyway, PredictIt currently gives her a 47% chance of running.  Are you saying that you think that’s too high?  Who would you put higher than her on likelihood to run?

[Mr. Morden]

Brief story on the Biden, Kasich, and O’Malley visits to New Hampshire, in which former O’Malley campaign co-chair Jay Surdukowski says he “speaks to [O’Malley] often” and encourages him to run:

http://www.wmur.com/article/buzz-builds-for-2020-as-potential-candidates-visit-new-hampshire/9273708

I don’t get the sense that he actually needs much encouragement.

Speaking of which, here’s a columnist calling O’Malley “clowny” for his blatant 2020 moves:

http://www.citypaper.com/blogs/the-news-hole/bcpnews-martin-o-malley-is-being-clowny-with-all-these-2020-gestures-20170413-story.html

It affords the opportunity to use this picture:

[Mr. Morden]

Back in November, Mark Warner offered a Shermanesque denial of interest in running for president in 2020, but he was just asked again, and his denial fell short of Shermanesque this time:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/mark-warner-russia-investigation-constituents-237106

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Warner is also mentioned in this story on the stage being set for 2020 in New Hampshire (as is Bill Richardson of all people):

https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2017/04/13/the-new-hampshire-primary-has-begun/dzFIuxq7kpp1WTG3mMzkJM/story.html

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[The Other Castro]

Reid J. Epstein‏ @reidepstein
2020 watch: Julián Castro is doing two events for Jon Ossoff in GA-6 on Saturday

[Mr. Morden]

Sunday morning talk show watch: Bernie Sanders is on "State of the Union" this morning:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_NEWS_SHOWS?SITE=AP

[Vosem]

Warren doesn't sound thrilled about running.

"Elizabeth Warren 2020" continues to feel like it'll be a replay of "Scott Walker 2016".

[Mr. Morden]

In this interview on CBS, Warren is asked about 2020 again, and dodges the question, claiming that she isn’t even thinking about it (which is surely a lie, that it’s not something she ever thinks about, but it’s a lie that all of the candidates tell ):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ikh1vLlfDEU&t=5m11s

In other news, at the very end of the interview, she reveals that her favorite curse word is poop.

[The Other Castro]

If you can say it on Spongebob it's not a curse word.

[Bull Moose Base]

In this interview on CBS, Warren is asked about 2020 again, and dodges the question, claiming that she isn’t even thinking about it (which is surely a lie, that it’s not something she ever thinks about, but it’s a lie that all of the candidates tell ):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ikh1vLlfDEU&t=5m11s

In other news, at the very end of the interview, she reveals that her favorite curse word is poop.

Trying to distinguish herself from Gillibrand who appears to have a different favorite.

[OSR STANDS WITH PALESTINE]

Gonna be Trump vs Warren, in already calling it. Wardens I'll try to play the woman card and may win the democratic nomination, but she won't win the General election

[Comrade Funk]

Gonna be Trump vs Warren, in already calling it. Wardens I'll try to play the woman card and may win the democratic nomination, but she won't win the General election

Looks like we got another one

[The Other Castro]

Gabriel Debenedetti‏ @gdebenedetti
Kamala Harris' office says she just got back from her first overseas trip as a senator: Iraq and Jordan (where she met with Syrian refugees)

[Mr. Morden]

A new story about Iger, Schultz, and Cuban:

https://www.fastcompany.com/40401083/should-ceos-like-oprah-and-mark-cuban-run-for-president

[MAINEiac4434]

Bernie's speech in Maine last night was largely a rehash of his stump speech updated with attacks on specific actions Trump. He announced he was introducing a medicare for all bill to congress. I left thinking he was running again.

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders

Sanders was asked about his 2020 plans (at about the 1:30 mark in the video below), and he dodged the question with “people are tired of never ending campaigns”:

http://www.wmtw.com/article/bernie-sanders-dnc-chair-kick-off-tour-with-rally-in-portland/9521992

O’Malley

In advance of his trip to the state, O’Malley did a phone interview with New Hampshire TV station WMUR, in which he continued his trend of hyperbolic insults against Trump, going after not just his policies, but his personality.  Talking about Trump and Kim Jong-un:

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He also used the f-word (fascist) again:

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And he gives another maybe on 2020:

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Warren

Warren again gives a non-denial answer re: 2020:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/will-elizabeth-warren-run-for-president-237325

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Inslee

Jay Inslee was asked about running for president, and here’s an account of what he said:

http://www.capitolhilltimes.com/Content/Default/On-The-Town/Article/Governor-says-America-needs-to-make-sure-Trump-is-a-temporary-shadow-not-a-permanent-stain-/-3/554/4851

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Hard to know what to make of that without a word for word transcript of both the question and response.  There are no term limits on the Washington governorship, so does Inslee saying that he’s “sticking around” indicate that he’s going to run for a 3rd term in 2020?  He hasn’t made an official announcement on such a run, so I don’t know that we get anything out of this, besides it being a standard non-denial.

[Mr. Morden]

Kasich will be doing a nationally broadcast “town hall” on CNN on Monday, the night before his new book comes out:

http://www.cleveland.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/04/john_kasich_to_hold_prime-time.html

[Mr. Morden]

Buzzfeed story on Sherrod Brown here:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/johnstanton/can-sherrod-brown-make-democrats-working-class-again

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I’m not sure what the bolded part means.  His staff want to quash any talk that he might run for president, because they think that’ll make him more of a target?  I guess that means we can’t actually expect clear signals one way or the other on whether he’s interested in running for prez until *after* he’s reelected.  At least, that’s how I’m reading this: That even if he does want to run for prez, he’s pursuing a deliberate strategy of making it look like he’s not interested until after the midterms.  OTOH, he might legitimately not be interested.

[SoLongAtlas]

warner2020.com and markwarner2020.com are both valid URLs but blank sites. Could be cybersquatting or future planning. He has wanted to run but is waiting for the right time and could self-finance as he has over $250 million dollars.

[Mr. Morden]

Despite his recent New Hampshire trip, Keith Ellison says to bet against him running for president:

http://www.twincities.com/2017/04/19/rep-keith-ellison-expects-rep-tim-walz-will-be-minnesotas-next-governor/

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[Mr. Morden]

Sanders headed to Iowa on July 15th:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2017/04/17/bernie-sanders-return-iowa-july/100575426/

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[America Needs R'hllor]

http://time.com/collection/2017-time-100/4736325/elizabeth-warren/

Kamala Harris wrote the tribute for Elizabeth Warren for the 100 most influential people of the Times.
From her Facebook page:

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They've been really cozy before that, as well. I think this, plus Harris' coziness with Booker, could indicate that she's trying to get friendly with influential Senators, thus looking to 2024 or 2028 instead of aiming for 2020?

[Figueira]

Warren said on Maddow that she's not running in 2020, although she uses the present tense.