The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[MAINEiac4434]

Kasich (which my phone hilariously autocorrects to "masochist") is definitely running, especially if Trump's approvals are in the toilet in like March 2019. He's going be Ted Kennedy to Trump's Carter, and it will seal defeat for Trump.

[MasterJedi]

Kasich (which my phone hilariously autocorrects to "masochist") is definitely running, especially if Trump's approvals are in the toilet in like March 2019. He's going be Ted Kennedy Trump's Carter, and it will seal defeat for Trump.

God I hope so, he has my full support for President.

[Mr. Morden]

Booker gives a familiar dodge ("we should be [focused on] right here, right now"), when asked if he's going to run for prez:

http://hollywoodlife.com/2017/04/28/cory-booker-president-2020-election-donald-trump/

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[Mr. Morden]

New Politico story on Biden 2020.  It says “He continues to tell aides that he’s unlikely to pull the trigger this time, though…. maybe.”

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/30/joe-biden-2020-veep-237790

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And there’s this from one fundraiser:

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[Mr. Morden]

Michelle Obama once again reiterates that she won't run for public office:

https://citifmonline.com/2017/04/29/michelle-obama-i-wont-run-for-office-for-my-children/

Sooner or later the betting markets will catch on to the fact that she's not one of the most likely Democratic nominees in 2020, since she's not going to run.

[Mr. Morden]

More Kasich:

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/331178-kasich-finds-it-hard-to-rule-out-2020

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[RogueBeaver]

Biden says he's not running.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Biden says he's not running.

Well if Bernie and Biden don't run (which looks quite likely) then all eyes will be on Warren to be the front runner for 2020.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden says he's not running.

Not a Shermanesque denial, since he doesn't use the future tense.  In fact, it reminds me of "I'm not the guy":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGMBAUFG7Cc

I would take the stuff being reported on background (e.g., the things he's reportedly told those in his political orbit about keeping his options open, as reported in that Politico piece a mentioned upthread) more seriously than what he's saying at this public event.  If Biden really wanted to rule out a run, he could do so, but he doesn't appear to be doing so (at least, not yet).

[History505]

Biden says he's not running.

Well if Bernie and Biden don't run (which looks quite likely) then all eyes will be on Warren to be the front runner for 2020.

I still think Bernie is going to run, and Biden as Mr. Morden said didn't make it a full out Shermanesque denial.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden says he's not running.

Well if Bernie and Biden don't run (which looks quite likely) then all eyes will be on Warren to be the front runner for 2020.

I still think Bernie is going to run, and Biden as Mr. Morden said didn't make it a full out Shermanesque denial.

Both of them are less than 50% likely to run IMHO, though maybe that's not saying much, since there are only a handful of potential candidates who are over 50%.  While being below 50%, I'd still put them both on my top 15 list of people most likely to run, if that makes sense.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Apparently big dem donors are talking to Eric Garcetti https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/04/30/us/politics/democrats-2020.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share&_r=0&referer=https://t.co/aEAUaXtvHC

[The Other Castro]

Apparently big dem donors are talking to Eric Garcetti https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/04/30/us/politics/democrats-2020.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share&_r=0&referer=https://t.co/aEAUaXtvHC

Also from that story:

-Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) has not ruled out a run in private conversations.

-Mayor Mitch Landrieu of New Orleans running was speculated by the author (but not clear if there's anything Landrieu has personally done that directly points to a run).

-Governors Cuomo and McAuliffe are seen as especially active in laying groundwork for 2020.

[MAINEiac4434]

Moulton would be interesting. I don't actively recoil away from him like I do from Cuomo.

I like McAuliffe, too, but I don't think he'd be a strong candidate.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Caroline Kennedy will be the nominee in 2020.

[NeederNodder]

Warren boldly criticizes Obama in her new book

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/01/politics/elizabeth-warren-barack-obama-2020/index.html?sr=twpol050117elizabeth-warren-barack-obama-2020%200127PMVODtopLink&linkId=37060313

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[Mr. Morden]

Apparently big dem donors are talking to Eric Garcetti https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/04/30/us/politics/democrats-2020.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share&_r=0&referer=https://t.co/aEAUaXtvHC

Garcetti is scheduled to speak at the CAP Ideas Conference in two weeks, along with folks like Booker, Gillibrand, and Warren, so no surprise on him being the source of 2020 speculation.

In any case, that NYT story is full of good 2020 reporting, including mention of this Biden trip to South Carolina a couple of weeks ago that I managed to miss:

http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/opinion/opn-columns-blogs/bob-bestler/article146065114.html

In any case, the NYT story interestingly splits the 2020 field along generational lines, grouping Biden in with fellow senior citizens Sanders and Warren as the candidates most interested in making the economic populist line the defining feature of the party, which implicitly means de-emphasizing social issues.

There’s also this on Biden vs. Sanders:

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Also of note:

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And one more item on Booker:

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[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Caroline Kennedy will be the nominee in 2020.

Haha yes please!

[RogueBeaver]

Moulton "looking at it" per his team.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Moulton "looking at it" per his team.

Ew.

[Mr. Morden]

Gillibrand's denial:

http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/2017/05/gillibrand-on-2020-im-ruling-it-out/

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[The Other Castro]

She'll be back. She may not ultimately run, but she's certainly not out.

[Mr. Morden]

She'll be back. She may not ultimately run, but she's certainly not out.

My take on her denial here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=263449.msg5631462#msg5631462

[Mr. Morden]

Both Los Angeles mayor Garcetti and New Orleans mayor Landrieu are giving “no comment” answers when asked if they’ll run for president in 2020:

http://mynewsla.com/government/2017/05/01/garcetti-president-2020-la-mayor-no-comment/

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http://www.theadvocate.com/new_orleans/news/politics/article_428fe2d0-2e95-11e7-9170-d7e5bc1bcaf0.html

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Meanwhile, Mark Zuckerberg gave another denial:

http://www.therecord.com/news-story/7272396-facebook-ceo-dinner-hosts-say-he-s-not-running-for-president/

[Mr. Morden]

McAuliffe going on a trade mission to Mexico, where he will meet with Nieto:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/2020-hopeful-mcauliffe-to-mexico-to-promote-trade-targeted-by-trump/article/2621814