The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread
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  The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread
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Author Topic: The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread  (Read 211081 times)
Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1250 on: May 10, 2017, 04:07:32 PM »

Dwayne ("The Rock") Johnson's campaign slogan should be:

"Johnson for President: Third time's the charm"
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1251 on: May 11, 2017, 01:36:33 PM »

Chris Murphy addressed a group of Iowans in the DSMpartnership (Greater Des Moines Partnership) today in DC.



https://twitter.com/jasonnobleDMR/status/862713877607395328
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1252 on: May 11, 2017, 08:08:30 PM »

Franken's latest:

http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2017/05/07/al-franken-presidential-race-2020/

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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #1253 on: May 12, 2017, 02:26:07 AM »

Dammit, Al. You'd win.
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UWS
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« Reply #1254 on: May 12, 2017, 07:12:53 AM »


Yes, the Rock is a Republican. Remember, he spoke at the 2000 Republican National Convention in Philadelphia.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUepX_AAmuw
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1255 on: May 12, 2017, 09:40:01 AM »

Klobuchar was on CBS’s “The Takeout” podcast, which is linked to here:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/sen-amy-klobuchar-stunned-by-timing-of-comey-ouster/

At the 29:20 mark, she’s asked if she’s planning to run for president, and she gives a non-answer and then changes the subject.

Meanwhile, Geoffrey Fieger floats both a 2018 gubernatorial run and 2020 presidential run:

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2017/05/12/fieger-considering-run-governor/101590714/

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1256 on: May 12, 2017, 12:55:53 PM »

Warren at the 4:00 mark in this video says “I’m not running for president”:

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/videos/2017-05-10/sen-warren-i-m-not-running-for-president-video

But from context, it’s clear that she means present tense, and that it’s not meant to rule out running in 2020.
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youcanhaveabeerwith
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« Reply #1257 on: May 12, 2017, 06:26:11 PM »

Been lurking since 2016 when I was trying to place my hopes in 2020...

Anyway, thought I'd finally post.

Jason Kander at 2017 Flag Day Dinner in Manchester, New Hampshire

You guys, Jason Kander is running for President in 2020.

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1258 on: May 12, 2017, 11:15:27 PM »

Been lurking since 2016 when I was trying to place my hopes in 2020...

Anyway, thought I'd finally post.

Jason Kander at 2017 Flag Day Dinner in Manchester, New Hampshire

You guys, Jason Kander is running for President in 2020.



Welcome to the forum.  Indeed, here is the info on Kander's trip to NH:

https://www.facebook.com/ManchesterDemocrats/posts/1520200134666196
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Atlas Has Shrugged
ChairmanSanchez
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« Reply #1259 on: May 13, 2017, 09:27:23 AM »

Been lurking since 2016 when I was trying to place my hopes in 2020...

Anyway, thought I'd finally post.

Jason Kander at 2017 Flag Day Dinner in Manchester, New Hampshire

You guys, Jason Kander is running for President in 2020.


He has to win something in 2018 first.
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #1260 on: May 13, 2017, 12:41:40 PM »

Been lurking since 2016 when I was trying to place my hopes in 2020...

Anyway, thought I'd finally post.

Jason Kander at 2017 Flag Day Dinner in Manchester, New Hampshire

You guys, Jason Kander is running for President in 2020.


He has to win something in 2018 first.

Yes I really like him but he has to win a lower office before sprinting to the top imo.
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PoliticalShelter
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« Reply #1261 on: May 13, 2017, 12:48:24 PM »
« Edited: May 13, 2017, 12:51:40 PM by PoliticalShelter »

If I was Kander I would try to run as an insurgent candidate in the 2020 primary in the hopes striking a deal to get the VP spot on the ticket, which would mean Kander would be the favourite to become the democratic nominee in either 2024 or 2028 depending on the result.
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cxs018
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« Reply #1262 on: May 13, 2017, 07:00:54 PM »

The difference is that Trump was extremely well known before he ran for president. Ask 100 people outside of Missouri and only 1 will know who Jason Kander is, at most.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1263 on: May 13, 2017, 07:07:53 PM »

Ask 100 people outside of Missouri and only 1 will know who Jason Kander is, at most.

Same with plenty of other presidential candidates.  Many of them are completely unknown before they launch their candidacy, and it's their presidential campaign itself that makes them well known.
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cxs018
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« Reply #1264 on: May 13, 2017, 07:19:30 PM »

Sure, but Kander hasn't even been elected as a Governor or Congress member. Also, let's take a look at the presidential nominees in the past:

2016 - Both Hillary and Trump were household names
2012 - Romney was fairly well known for his 2008 campaign
2008 - Obama known thanks to his DNC speech; McCain more well known due to 2000 campaign and time in Senate
2004 - Kerry somewhat well known due to time in Senate
2000 - Gore was Vice President, Bush was related to a former president
1996 - Dole well known due to being a former VP nominee and a long-serving Senator
1992 - Bill Clinton was virtually unknown nationally before 1992

So we have to go back to 1992 to find someone even close to how unknown Kander is.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1265 on: May 13, 2017, 07:51:09 PM »

Sure, but Kander hasn't even been elected as a Governor or Congress member. Also, let's take a look at the presidential nominees in the past:

2016 - Both Hillary and Trump were household names
2012 - Romney was fairly well known for his 2008 campaign
2008 - Obama known thanks to his DNC speech; McCain more well known due to 2000 campaign and time in Senate
2004 - Kerry somewhat well known due to time in Senate
2000 - Gore was Vice President, Bush was related to a former president
1996 - Dole well known due to being a former VP nominee and a long-serving Senator
1992 - Bill Clinton was virtually unknown nationally before 1992

So we have to go back to 1992 to find someone even close to how unknown Kander is.

Sure, but plenty of candidates still run despite not having previously been well known, even if they don't end up winning the nomination.  And as you note in the quote block above, some become well known simply by running for president, then run again in a subsequent year and win the nomination the second time around.  So if Kander's goal is to become president, it's not necessarily a bad idea to make a longshot bid in 2020, and then if (as expected) he doesn't win the nomination, try again next time.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1266 on: May 15, 2017, 02:30:11 PM »

Sasse gives a 2020 denial that’s far short of being Shermanesque:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/15/james-comey-fired-ben-sasse-reacts-238391

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1267 on: May 15, 2017, 02:39:53 PM »


They are starting the clock too late.  Smiley  Since the 2016 election?  Pffft.  We’ve been tracking these things in this thread since March 2016.  I would not ignore activity from before the ’16 election.  The fact that, for example, Booker, Castro, and Klobuchar (among others) were meeting with early primary state delegations at last year’s DNC is certainly relevant to assessing their presidential ambitions.  There’s also the question of who you bother to include in such lists.  E.g., Russ Feingold also did an event in Iowa this year, so maybe he should be included.  I mean, if you’re counting Van Jones, then why not Feingold?

Also, “included in polls” is rather different from an early primary state visit, as the latter is something that the candidate does on his/her own initiative, while the latter is just a reflection of media consensus on who is going to run.  And the media doesn’t really pay enough attention to the race to be trusted to come up with a smart consensus.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #1268 on: May 15, 2017, 10:46:56 PM »

What about Bob Corker running in 2020?

He's been throwing a lot of punches in Trump's way as of late.

He obviously would face a lot of difficult questions regarding his political ethics when it comes to stock market investments in Senate Committees where he has a major amount of sway, but he could potentially unite both the Moderate Republican and the Evangelical Wing of the Party, and would likely do quite well come Super Tuesday 2020 if Trump's unfavs start to eat deeper into the Republican Base....
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Shameless Lefty Hack
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« Reply #1269 on: May 15, 2017, 11:08:48 PM »

I think one of the biggest things muddying the waters re: 2020 Tea Leaves is the complex interrelationship between publicity and power in DC.

Fundamentally, people who want power in Washington need to make the same set of moves that people need to make to set up a Presidential run. Bob Corker isn't going to run for President, but the more he can set himself up as an anti-Trump guy from a safe Senate seat, the better for his influence in the Senate. Bernie Sanders is not going to run again, but because he's been granted essential carte blanche to blast his message across CNN and MSNBC and show up on all the Sunday talk shows he wants, he sees an opportunity to press his agenda and make his case for the Democratic party of the future.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1270 on: May 16, 2017, 09:10:36 AM »

Loyalists & establishmentarians peeved at Sanders for being murky on his plans.
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Shameless Lefty Hack
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« Reply #1271 on: May 16, 2017, 11:45:21 AM »


I think that this is actually a classic example of what I stated back on the last page. I think it's abundantly clear from the article that, unless no other prog populist stands up, Bernie isn't running. But he wants to define the Democratic identity, so he appears in public, builds his list, is generally not a quiet, get a long to go along legislator.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1272 on: May 16, 2017, 02:02:06 PM »


Some good reporting there, with some real behind-the-scenes news on Sanders-world.  They say that some of the other potential 2020 candidates are already talking with their aides about what a presidential campaign would look like (despite publicly claiming that they’re only thinking about their current jobs), while Sanders is not having those conversations as of yet:

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I realize all of this must sound strange to people who take at face value politicians’ words about “It’s too early to think about the next presidential election”, but this is the sort of thing that is actually happening behind closed doors: 2020 presidential candidates are already talking to people in their political orbit about how to run their presidential campaigns, and political operatives are already looking for landing spots with one of the candidates.  And more than that, people close to some of the potential candidates are already annoyed that their potential boss in the 2020 campaign hasn’t already made up his mind to run….even though we’re (likely) a good ~18 months away from anyone even setting up an exploratory committee.
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NeederNodder
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« Reply #1273 on: May 16, 2017, 05:17:50 PM »

Cooper planning to use an executive order on LGBT rights

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/north-carolina-governor-lgbtq-rights_us_591b15e8e4b0809be15860ea
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weeb
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« Reply #1274 on: May 16, 2017, 09:13:32 PM »

R - Retarded (Donald Trump)
D - Very Retarded (Elizabeth Warren)
L - Sane (Ron Paul)
G - Good intentions but bad policies (Bernie Sanders or Jill Stein)
I - My waifu

My waifu will win by a landslide, 99.99999% likely. Greens might win Vermont.
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