The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[Santander]

I'm coming to the realization that the best ticket for the Democrats in 2020 is Hassan/Booker, not Booker/Hassan like I previously thought. Newsom, Inslee and Bullock would make decent running mates, too. If the Democrats are going to run a woman, it can't be someone who is perceived to be a legislator. Only a chief executive can break the glass ceiling as a Democrat.

[Mr. Morden]

Cuomo getting involved in the Dem. fight for the US House of Representatives by targeting incumbent Republicans from New York state:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/gov-cuomo-launching-bid-unseat-n-y-house-republicans-article-1.3224577

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[Mr. Morden]

Jeff Weaver on the intentions of Sanders ("He's open to it"):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-trump-effect-everyones-thinking-of-running-for-president/2017/06/05/51ff27a8-46f5-11e7-bcde-624ad94170ab_story.html?utm_term=.c525d9942e90

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[Mr. Morden]

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/336836-brother-biden-absolutely-has-a-2020-run-in-him

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[Mr. Morden]

The Washington Times has a story on Kamala Harris that quotes her responding to a 2020 question last week, in which she gives a non-denial that uses the f-word twice:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jun/7/kamala-harris-copies-obamas-political-playbook/

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[Hoosier_Nick]

Booker has really been making the rounds. This evening he was in ND with Senator Heitkamp talking to some pages. I can't find any source for this, but he is on her Snapchat story. This isn't the first time I've seen him around, just a couple weeks ago he spent a weekend in Indiana, visiting some black churches in Fort Wayne and Indianapolis with Senator Donnelly. So he's definitely already on the campaign trail.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I think Kamala would actually edge out Booker on second thought.

[The Other Castro]

Politico: Trump hearings launch Kamala Harris

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/09/kamala-harris-2020-239318


Kirsten Gillibrand continues to display her dirty mouth:
"Has he kept his promises? No. F*** no."

https://twitter.com/hamiltonnolan/status/873186899606867968

[Mr. Morden]

The lefty showcase “The People’s Summit” is being held in Chicago this weekend, with only one potential 2020 candidate on the schedule: Bernie Sanders.  Gabbard spoke at this last year, and was initially on the schedule for this year as well, but apparently cancelled due to a scheduling conflict:

https://twitter.com/pplsummit/status/870835680028622848

In other news, “The Sanders Institute” has just launched:

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And finally, Biden now has a new house in Delaware:

http://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/337123-biden-buys-dream-beach-house-in-delaware

[Mr. Morden]

Kirsten Gillibrand continues to display her dirty mouth:
"Has he kept his promises? No. F*** no."

https://twitter.com/hamiltonnolan/status/873186899606867968

This time it was actually caught on video though:

http://www.mediaite.com/online/go-the-fck-home-sen-kirsten-gillibrand-drops-f-bomb-at-nyu-forum/

At this point I've got to think this is part of a deliberate strategy to get national media attention.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Kirsten Gillibrand continues to display her dirty mouth:
"Has he kept his promises? No. F*** no."

https://twitter.com/hamiltonnolan/status/873186899606867968

This time it was actually caught on video though:

http://www.mediaite.com/online/go-the-fck-home-sen-kirsten-gillibrand-drops-f-bomb-at-nyu-forum/

At this point I've got to think this is part of a deliberate strategy to get national media attention.

Cynically, it could be a ploy for the youth vote in the primaries.

[Mr. Morden]

Kirsten Gillibrand continues to display her dirty mouth:
"Has he kept his promises? No. F*** no."

https://twitter.com/hamiltonnolan/status/873186899606867968

This time it was actually caught on video though:

http://www.mediaite.com/online/go-the-fck-home-sen-kirsten-gillibrand-drops-f-bomb-at-nyu-forum/

At this point I've got to think this is part of a deliberate strategy to get national media attention.

Cynically, it could be a ploy for the youth vote in the primaries.

Perhaps.  Of course, my guess is that most politicians swear frequently in their private lives, and *not* swearing in public is a political ploy designed to project a certain image, or just avoid controversy.  Gillibrand might figure that her political incentives run the other way, and she's better off just talking like she normally does.

Incidentally, her NY magazine profile from April didn't just include multiple f-bombs.  She also made repeated use of the words "sucks" and "dude".  Whether she normally talks like that in private conversations, or if she's just putting it on for effect, I don't know.

Either way, I look forward to some PG-13 rated Democratic primary debates in 2019.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Kirsten Gillibrand continues to display her dirty mouth:
"Has he kept his promises? No. F*** no."

https://twitter.com/hamiltonnolan/status/873186899606867968

This time it was actually caught on video though:

http://www.mediaite.com/online/go-the-fck-home-sen-kirsten-gillibrand-drops-f-bomb-at-nyu-forum/

At this point I've got to think this is part of a deliberate strategy to get national media attention.

Cynically, it could be a ploy for the youth vote in the primaries.

Perhaps.  Of course, my guess is that most politicians swear frequently in their private lives, and *not* swearing in public is a political ploy designed to project a certain image, or just avoid controversy.  Gillibrand might figure that her political incentives run the other way, and she's better off just talking like she normally does.

Incidentally, her NY magazine profile from April didn't just include multiple f-bombs.  She also made repeated use of the words "sucks" and "dude".  Whether she normally talks like that in private conversations, or if she's just putting it on for effect, I don't know.

Either way, I look forward to some PG-13 rated Democratic primary debates in 2019.

I tend to agree with the idea that some - perhaps even most - politicians swear privately but tone it down in public to convey the right personal brand. The person, of course, varies; for instance, I doubt VP Pence would use such language, but it wouldn't surprise me to hear John McCain swear.

I also argue that the popular opinion at this moment in time seems to value "authenticity" and "cares about people like me" in a candidate. It's plausible that strategists noticed how the Internet and young voters reacted to Biden's "Big F**king deal" moment and Sen Sanders's "authenticity" and have attempted to calibrate accordingly.

As an aside, but partially related to the above, Gillibrand's interviews and policy shifts really lead me to believe that she's going to try the middle lane strategy of appealing to the Sanders wing and the HRC wing - she is staking out a leftward shift in domestic policy, a foreign policy approach more in line with Obama's than HRC's and also visibly supports and works hard on what is often derisively referred to as "women's issues" including sexual assault in the military and on campus, and paid parental leave.

 Her biggest hurdle is explaining her shift from past views when she represented upstate NY, but she strikes me as a particularly skilled politician. At one point in her NY Mag profile, she addresses it, noting that her constituency changed, which required her to be mote responsive to a broader range of issues. If she is able to convince others the way she did in her interview, I would put her as odds-on favorite to win the nom. If not, she'll be out the same time as Scott Walker was.

[Mr. Morden]

As an aside, but partially related to the above, Gillibrand's interviews and policy shifts really lead me to believe that she's going to try the middle lane strategy of appealing to the Sanders wing and the HRC wing - she is staking out a leftward shift in domestic policy, a foreign policy approach more in line with Obama's than HRC's and also visibly supports and works hard on what is often derisively referred to as "women's issues" including sexual assault in the military and on campus, and paid parental leave.

Gillibrand has now embraced the left end of the Senate Democratic caucus on virtually everything.  She's co-sponsoring practically every bill that has the Sanders name on it.  So, policy-wise (at least if we're going by what her policies are today as opposed to 10 years ago) she disagrees with Sanders and Warren on very little.  I'm not sure what disagreements she'd have with them if she were to actually debate them.  This is a stark contrast with Hillary Clinton, who had plenty of policy disagreements win Sanders in last year's campaign.

The difference she has with the Sanders/Warren crowd is more about which issues get emphasized.  Sanders and Warren are focused on economic issues and financial reform, which implicitly means less emphasis on social issues.  (Recall the recent kerfuffle over the Sanders endorsement of a candidate who strayed from party orthodoxy on abortion.)  Gillibrand, by contrast, talks plenty about social issues.  Not just abortion, but also (as you mentioned in your post) things like sexual assault on college campuses and in the military.  She also wears her gender on her sleeve in a way that I've never seen in any other female politician.  (Whereas, say, Klobuchar follows the Hillary Clinton 2000s playbook of trying not to play into gender stereotypes.)

[Mr. Morden]

One more thing...

I also argue that the popular opinion at this moment in time seems to value "authenticity" and "cares about people like me" in a candidate. It's plausible that strategists noticed how the Internet and young voters reacted to Biden's "Big F**king deal" moment and Sen Sanders's "authenticity" and have attempted to calibrate accordingly.

If this is a deliberate strategy on Gillibrand's part, I'm not sure to what extent she views swearing as a political plus in and of itself, and to what extent she might figure that it's politically neutral, but still a good way to get the national media talking about her.  When she drops the f-bombs, news outlets actually write stories about it.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

One more thing...

I also argue that the popular opinion at this moment in time seems to value "authenticity" and "cares about people like me" in a candidate. It's plausible that strategists noticed how the Internet and young voters reacted to Biden's "Big F**king deal" moment and Sen Sanders's "authenticity" and have attempted to calibrate accordingly.

If this is a deliberate strategy on Gillibrand's part, I'm not sure to what extent she views swearing as a political plus in and of itself, and to what extent she might figure that it's politically neutral, but still a good way to get the national media talking about her.  When she drops the f-bombs, news outlets actually write stories about it.

The reason why I suspect it's either deliberately played up, or Sen. Gillibrand is simply not censoring herself the way other politicians do is two-fold: 1) as you point out, it generates headlines, clicks and attention (which is good!) and 2) doing so portrays a less "calibrated," "calculated," or "focus-tested" image, all of which dogged HRC. I suspect that this is the advantage that her and her advisors may find in "letting" Sen. Gillibrand speak however she wants in public. I absolutely grant that I'm probably reading too much into this, but "I'm probably reading too much into this" should be atlas's slogan.

[This account no longer in use.]

The new Gillibrand knows exactly what she's doing, in my opinion. She's trying to combine the Clinton and Sanders bases, and I feel like she might be able to pull it off.

[MAINEiac4434]

I would be very, very happy with nominee Gillibrand. I feel like she could really get under Trump's skin.

[Harlow]

Can't wait for Gillibrand's campaign slogans of "F*** school!", "Parents suck!" and "But hey, that internet's pretty sick, right dude?"

[Shadows]

Gillibrand went from being one of the most conservative Senators in a blue state with a highly controversial record with right wing policies to one of the most progressive Senators who essentially supports almost every single policy that Sanders supports. She is literally trying to be a Sanders clone.

I don't think Sanders people will have any problem with her as the nominee if she continues this way given her political evolution has been long drawn since her election to the Senate, but if Bernie runs he has got the nomination & the chance to be another legendary President.

If Bernie doesn't, Gillibrand will be a strong contender because Warren won't get all of the Bernie wing votes !

[Mr. Morden]

In this interview, Franken says there are no circumstances in which he’d run for prez:

https://www.thenation.com/article/al-franken-is-not-running-for-president/

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Franken also addresses 2020 in this Vox interview:

https://www.vox.com/conversations/2017/6/5/15727086/al-franken-interview-ted-cruz

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And finally here’s another maybe from O’Malley on 2020:

http://www.wpsdlocal6.com/story/35625502/former-presidential-candidate-martin-omalley-speaks-at-local-dinner

[RogueBeaver]

Booker at a CT Dem dinner with Ted Kennedy Jr.

[morgieb]

Politico: Trump hearings launch Kamala Harris

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/09/kamala-harris-2020-239318


Kirsten Gillibrand continues to display her dirty mouth:
"Has he kept his promises? No. F*** no."

https://twitter.com/hamiltonnolan/status/873186899606867968

[Horsemask]

Article on CNN regarding Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley

http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/11/politics/jeff-merkley-2020-plans-president/index.html

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[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Article on CNN regarding Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley

http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/11/politics/jeff-merkley-2020-plans-president/index.html

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Don't quotes like this seem to indicate that Warren is not planning to run? Merkley and Warren are colleagues and factional allies, and Merkley doesn't strike me as an egomaniac. If he knew she were running he would A) know what's better for the progressive cause and B ) know his chances running against her.