The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[Holmes]

Article on CNN regarding Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley

http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/11/politics/jeff-merkley-2020-plans-president/index.html

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Don't quotes like this seem to indicate that Warren is not planning to run? Merkley and Warren are colleagues and factional allies, and Merkley doesn't strike me as an egomaniac. If he knew she were running he would A) know what's better for the progressive cause and B ) know his chances running against her.

I think so too. I've been getting the sense lately that she's thinking of not running, but maybe that's just me.

[Mr. Morden]

Don't quotes like this seem to indicate that Warren is not planning to run? Merkley and Warren are colleagues and factional allies, and Merkley doesn't strike me as an egomaniac. If he knew she were running he would A) know what's better for the progressive cause and B ) know his chances running against her.

There's no reason to believe the Senators talk to each other about whether they're going to run for president.  Why would they?  What is gained by such conversations at this early stage?  I'm assuming that they only talk to a handful of their closest advisors (and not fellow politicians) about such things.  I don't think Merkley knows anything more than we do about whether Warren is running.  In fact, it's possible that he knows less, since he's probably not reading this thread.  

[Mr. Morden]

Hickenlooper asked if he’s going to run for president at about the 31:40 mark of this podcast:

link

He goes on for about three minutes, and doesn’t answer the question.  He just talks about how all he’s thinking about is what to do as governor during his remaining time in office.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Article on CNN regarding Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley

http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/11/politics/jeff-merkley-2020-plans-president/index.html

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Merkely is the second best option after his fellow Oregonian, Wyden. And since Wyden almost certainly won't run, Merkely is the best semi-probable choice.

The right question to ask is how Merkely's voice will stand out in a crowded primary and, perhaps more importantly, how he'll raise money. Absent Sanders and Warren running, Merkely may be able to leverage the Sanders database, but it's a leap to assume the Sanders donors will immediately support Merkely.

[TheSaint250]

Politico did an article on VA Gov. Terry McAuliffe. It seems like he is gearing towards a 2020 run

[Mr. Morden]

Oprah rules out not just running for president, but anything else:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/13/entertainment/oprah-running-president/index.html

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[The Other Castro]

Jeff Merkley and Pete Buttigieg are going to Iowa:

"2020 Watch: Merkley, Buttigieg to headline Progress Iowa Corn Feed"

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2017/06/13/2020-watch-merkley-buttigieg-headline-progress-iowa-corn-feed/391478001/

[RogueBeaver]

Oprah will never run for office.

[Mr. Morden]

Politico did an article on VA Gov. Terry McAuliffe. It seems like he is gearing towards a 2020 run

Here’s the story:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/13/terry-mcauliffe-2020-off-message-239459

Lots of fun details in there, like the fact that McAuliffe talks to Bill Clinton every day, and that, according to one “insider”, the McAuliffe team is already talking about what month he should announce his presidential candidacy:

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[Mr. Morden]

Jane Sanders on her husband’s presidential prospects:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/bernie-sanders-will-play-a-major-role-in-2020-jane-sanders-says/article/2625747

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[Santander]

Communists have a hard time letting go of power.

[Bull Moose Base]

Didnt brace myself for Jane Sanders saying Bernie wears her out. Isn't the FBI investigation into Jane one of the things that reportedly deters Bernie from running.

I bet McAuliffe will get enough cold water thrown on the idea that he won't end up running.

[TheSaint250]

Communists have a hard time letting go of power.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

"major role" sounds a lot more like endorsing than running to me.

[Technocracy Timmy]

"major role" sounds a lot more like endorsing than running to me.

That's what I'm thinking. I don't think Sanders will run in 2020. He'll likely try and rally as much momentum as possible into the progressive challenger in the race once the field narrows down. Whether that's Warren, Brown, Franken, etc. He'll do his best to get them through the primaries. His support and his wing of the Party will definitely put that candidate at a significant advantage.

[houseonaboat]

"major role" sounds a lot more like endorsing than running to me.

That's what I'm thinking. I don't think Sanders will run in 2020. He'll likely try and rally as much momentum as possible into the progressive challenger in the race once the field narrows down. Whether that's Warren, Brown, Franken, etc. He'll do his best to get them through the primaries. His support and his wing of the Party will definitely put that candidate at a significant advantage.

I actually think he might take a bit longer to endorse and want certain candidates to proverbially "kiss the ring." I mean, the main reason he was in the race last year from April-June was so that he could pick up delegates to shape the party platform. If it's Warren vs. Booker, yes, he likely endorses right away but it's likely the field will be much bigger than that.

[Mr. Morden]

"major role" sounds a lot more like endorsing than running to me.

That's what I'm thinking. I don't think Sanders will run in 2020. He'll likely try and rally as much momentum as possible into the progressive challenger in the race once the field narrows down. Whether that's Warren, Brown, Franken, etc. He'll do his best to get them through the primaries. His support and his wing of the Party will definitely put that candidate at a significant advantage.

I actually think he might take a bit longer to endorse and want certain candidates to proverbially "kiss the ring." I mean, the main reason he was in the race last year from April-June was so that he could pick up delegates to shape the party platform. If it's Warren vs. Booker, yes, he likely endorses right away but it's likely the field will be much bigger than that.

Yep.  To the extent that one can influence the candidates in the race, leverage is maximized by dangling the possibility of an endorsement out there for a while (but not yet granting it), so as to encourage the candidates to run on more Sanders-friendly policy platforms, in order to win his favor.  Once he actually endorses a specific person, then the other candidates have no reason to listen to him anymore.

[Technocracy Timmy]

^ That does actually make a lot more sense.

[Los Angeles Swag Boss]

"major role" sounds a lot more like endorsing than running to me.

That's what I'm thinking. I don't think Sanders will run in 2020. He'll likely try and rally as much momentum as possible into the progressive challenger in the race once the field narrows down. Whether that's Warren, Brown, Franken, etc. He'll do his best to get them through the primaries. His support and his wing of the Party will definitely put that candidate at a significant advantage.

I actually think he might take a bit longer to endorse and want certain candidates to proverbially "kiss the ring." I mean, the main reason he was in the race last year from April-June was so that he could pick up delegates to shape the party platform. If it's Warren vs. Booker, yes, he likely endorses right away but it's likely the field will be much bigger than that.

Yep.  To the extent that one can influence the candidates in the race, leverage is maximized by dangling the possibility of an endorsement out there for a while (but not yet granting it), so as to encourage the candidates to run on more Sanders-friendly policy platforms, in order to win his favor.  Once he actually endorses a specific person, then the other candidates have no reason to listen to him anymore.

On top of all of that, the best way to stay the top "progressive" in the ring is by dangling a run over everyones head. That keeps his name at the top of the rung and makes his endorsement much more valued. Imagine a Bernie who "plans to run in 2018" but decides against it "for family issues" then he goes and dangles an endorsement. His legacy becomes the father of American progressives and bestows a successor.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Saturday: Joe Biden will speak at the FL Dems' leadership gala fundraiser

http://www.floridadems.org/news/florida-democratic-party-announces-former-vice-president-joe-biden-as-keynote-speaker-for-annual-leadership-blue-gala

[Shadows]

The Sanders' endorsement in under-rated. Our-Revolution now has local offices, volunteers in even red states like Texas & is focusing on City Council, School boards, State Leg elections too & they have 4 years till now. They have Bernie Sanders' email list to raise huge money without Pac baggage. You have an army of volunteers & passionate young supporters. Bernie is a big draw in TV & has massive name recognition. He also has the progressive touch to his brand which helps in a Democratic primary.

Bernie should hold out as much as possible. Universal healthcare, student debt issues or climate change will should be key issues to getting his endorsement (as should be the history of the candidate).

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

"Frank from Palm Beach" called into Michael Smerconish's radio show this week, ahead of Joe Biden's appearance at the Florida Dems' Leadership Blue gala. Smerconish asked him about 2020 and I just saw it on his show, so sorry for not having a link/source.

Turns out Frank from Palm Beach was Frank Biden, youngest brother of Joe Biden.

Smerconish: Is there any prospect he's got one more run in him?

Biden: Absolutely! Absolutely… Why anyone wold think otherwise, I don't know.

[Pollster]

Politico is out with a new piece on Jason Kander.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/06/17/how-jason-kander-won-by-losing-215271?cmpid=sf

[American2020]

Many potential candidates are unknown from the public.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/17/democrats-2020-presidential-candidates-who-are-they-239612

[NewYorkExpress]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/16/politics/2020-vision-democrats-tim-ryan-kamala-harris/index.html

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