The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[Frodo]

Pence calls the NYT report on his purported 2020 ambitions "disgraceful and offensive":

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/06/pence-new-york-times-2020-trump-241365

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The rather strong reaction from Pence suggests that where there is smoke, there is fire. 

 

[peter88]

The rather strong reaction from Pence suggests that where there is smoke, there is fire. 

exactly!

[GoTfan]

That NYT story on various Republicans positioning themselves for 2020 continues to produce fallout, with The Hill talking to some of the possible Republican 2020ers, and compiling quotes from others:

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/345656-the-five-kinds-of-republicans-who-could-primary-trump

To summarize…

-No comment on a 2020 run from Amash:

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-And this from Flake when asked about 2020 on MSNBC:

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-And this from Sasse:

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-And this from Cotton:

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And this from John Weaver on Kasich:

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That's a whole lotta non-denials.

[Mr. Morden]

Scott Walker asked about 2020:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/08/scott-walker-dismisses-2020-presidential-bid-not-running-for-anything-but-re-election.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Here's a story on all the Dems with upcoming events in Iowa:

https://www.usnews.com/news/the-run/articles/2017-08-09/from-bustos-and-swalwell-to-merkley-and-omalley-democrats-set-to-infiltrate-iowa

We've already commented in this thread about the upcoming visits by, e.g., Kander, Moulton, Merkley, etc., but the story also says that O'Malley is also hoping to do yet another Iowa visit in September (lol).

[Hindsight was 2020]

Julian Castro set up a pac for 2020 http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/10/julian-castro-pac-2020-ambitions-241485

[RogueBeaver]

David Bernstein: Booker/Gillibrand/Harris/Klobuchar have told donors they're running.

[The Other Castro]

David Bernstein: Booker/Gillibrand/Harris/Klobuchar have told donors they're running.

No surprises there, despite their "denials".

[MAINEiac4434]

If Klobuchar is running that means Franken is probably seriously out. My king is dead

[Mr. Morden]

Delaney's announcement seems to have kicked the 2020 Democratic primary race into high gear. 

[TheSaint250]

Delaney's announcement seems to have kicked the 2020 Democratic primary race into high gear. 

They have to start early.

They can't wait too long if they want to contain-y the Delaney

[The Other Castro]

It's probably time for me to rework my list of potential candidates. First, this is a comprehensive list of pretty much every plausible Democratic candidate by most recent position (in no particular order):

VPs: Biden, Gore
Governors: Bullock, Hickenlooper, Cuomo, O'Malley, Chafee, Patrick, McAuliffe, Brown
Senators: Booker, Harris, Klobuchar, Warren, Murphy, Gillibrand, Merkley, Sanders, Brown
Representatives: Delaney, Moulton, Ryan, Schiff, Gabbard
Mayors: Garcetti, Landrieu
Other politicians: Castro, Kander, Holder, Kerry, Kennedy, Clinton
Other non-politicians: Zuckerberg, Johnson, Cuban, Schultz, Iger, Steyer

In total, this is 38 names, though many of these people likely will not run. A more helpful list is to sort them into categories of likelihood.

Categories of Likelihood:

1. Declared: 1
-Congressman John Delaney (MD-6)

2. Senators and Governors under 70 who have expressed serious interest: 10
-Senator Cory Booker (NJ)
-Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (NY)
-Senator Amy Klobuchar (MN)
-Senator Elizabeth Warren (MA)
-Senator Kamala Harris (CA)
-Governor Martin O'Malley (MD)
-Governor Andrew Cuomo (NY)
-Governor Steve Bullock (MT)
-Governor John Hickenlooper (CO)
-Governor Terry McAuliffe (VA)

3. Senators, Governors, and VPs 70+ who have expressed serious interest: 2
-VP Joe Biden (DE)
-Senator Bernie Sanders (VT)

4. Representatives, Mayors, and Others who have expressed serious interest: 6
-Congressman Tim Ryan (OH-13)
-Congressman Seth Moulton (MA-6)
-Mayor Mitch Landrieu (New Orleans, LA)
-Mayor Eric Garcetti (Los Angeles, CA)
-MO SoS Jason Kander (MO)
-HUD Sec. Julian Castro (TX)

5. Senators and Governors who may be interested: 6
-Senator Chris Murphy (CT)
-Senator Jeff Merkley (OR)
-Senator Sherrod Brown (OH)
-Governor Lincoln Chafee (RI)
-Governor Deval Patrick (MA)
-Governor Jerry Brown (CA)

6. Representatives, Mayors, and Others who may be interested: 5
-Congressman Adam Schiff (CA-28)
-Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (HI-2)
-AG Eric Holder
-Actor Dwayne Johnson
-Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg

7. All Others who could plausibly be interested in running, but probably won't run: 8
-SoS Hillary Clinton
-SoS John Kerry
-Businessman Mark Cuban
-VP Al Gore
-Hedge Fund Manager Tom Steyer
-Ambassador Caroline Kennedy
-Disney CEO Bob Iger
-Starbucks Chairman Howard Schultz

[Mr. Morden]

7. All Others who could plausibly be interested in running, but probably won't run: 8
-SoS Hillary Clinton
-SoS John Kerry
-Businessman Mark Cuban
-VP Al Gore
-Hedge Fund Manager Tom Steyer
-Ambassador Caroline Kennedy
-Disney CEO Bob Iger
-Starbucks Chairman Howard Schultz

Inevitably, there are going to be some arbitrary lines drawn in making up such lists, but for me the key dividing line would be "potential candidates for whom there's actually some evidence that they're interested" and "potential candidates for whom the speculation just seems to be based on wishful thinking".  E.g., in the list above, to pick three examples, Cuban publicly says he might run (though I wouldn't necessarily assume that he'd run as a Dem. as opposed to going 3rd party), Kerry was asked about running, and said that he's not ruling anything out, and Iger hasn't said anything publicly, but we have background reporting indicating that he's told those close to him that he's thinking about it.  So for all of those folks, I'd say that there's some evidence of interest, even if we don't think the odds of them actually going through with it are all that great.

OTOH, I'm unclear on what evidence there is of interest on the part of Caroline Kennedy.  The New York Post wrote a story about how she might be interested in running for Congress, but how do you go from there to her being interested in a 2020 presidential run?  I'm unclear on what such speculation is based on.

[The Other Castro]

I figured I may as well include her just to be safe. I would have broken down the list into more categories, but it seemed a little excessive at that point to go behind seven. I don't think you can make a list without putting your own opinion into it regarding the likelihood of some candidates, so each list could be different but still fair.

[Modernity has failed us]

David Bernstein: Booker/Gillibrand/Harris/Klobuchar have told donors they're running.

*sigh* I miss the days when I thought Gillibrand would be the best Dem candidate in 2016/2020. How naive I was.

Klobuchar is interesting, though. She strikes me as a 2008 Chris Dodd type; someone who would run just to get their profile up enough to possibly make the VP shortlist.

[TrumpBritt24]

Kamala Harris has started emailing her subscribers a survey about topics in the country, at the end asking for a donation and thanks you for "standing up to Trump".

Considering she isn't up for reelection until 2022, Kamala 2020 is all but confirmed at this point.

[henster]

Klobuchar has the most upside she keeps MN safe and is a great fit for WI/IA, geographically she is the best candidate. The problem is she is so boring and bland it will be hard for her to make it thru the primary.

[Shadows]

There is nothing to say WI or Iowa people care for Klobuchar. Even Hillary originally is from Illinois right. By this logic Michelle Bachmann will win the Mid-west & Trump would win NY. No1 cares where Klobuchar is from. The only state which Klobuchar brings in play so far is Minnesota where she is an elected Senator. Beyond that, wait for the debates & then the polls.

Anyways, Bernie news (He is going to Michigan) -

U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, the Vermont congressman who won Michigan's presidential primary in 2016, will join U.S. Rep. John Conyers in Detroit on Aug. 22 for a town hall meeting on health care and jobs. The Detroit Democrat said the town hall will be held at 7 p.m. at Fellowship Chapel Church, 7707 W. Outer Drive in Detroit.

http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/10/bernie-sanders-join-john-conyers-detroit-health-care-town-hall/556768001/

[Mr. Morden]

Yet another CEO in the mix for prez?:

http://www.hitc.com/en-gb/2017/08/04/ft-top-firm-ceo-said-may-run-for-president-in-2020/

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[MAINEiac4434]

Oh the JP Morgan CEO could definitely be elected President of the United States...

[Mr. Morden]

Here is this week's #2020Vision column:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/11/politics/2020-vision-iowa-elizabeth-warren-netroots/

Not much new there that we haven't already discussed here, except this:

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[MAINEiac4434]

This kind of New Democracy?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Democracy

[TheSaint250]

Here is this week's #2020Vision column:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/11/politics/2020-vision-iowa-elizabeth-warren-netroots/

Not much new there that we haven't already discussed here, except this:

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Im actually pretty interested to see where this is going.

[Mr. Morden]

Castro won't talk about whether his new PAC means anything re: presidential ambitions:

http://www.expressnews.com/news/news_columnists/brian_chasnoff/article/Castro-s-reservations-11756426.php

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[TheSaint250]

Here is this week's #2020Vision column:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/11/politics/2020-vision-iowa-elizabeth-warren-netroots/

Not much new there that we haven't already discussed here, except this:

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Per Twitter:

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But remember guys, "Bernie Bros" are the real racists in the Democratic Party!

Geez. That's a horrible thing to say. It's 100% not a winning strategy.