The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/gossip/confidential/jeb-bush-donors-rematch-2020-article-1.2803848

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Hey Obama, can you take out your "pen and phone" and write an executive order declaring ¡Yeb! ineligible to serve in public office? I really don't want that low-energy loser as president.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, an actor from California, is not ruling out a (quixotic) primary challenge to Trump:

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-rock-running-for-president-2020
http://www.msn.com/en-us/movies/celebrity/dwayne-johnson-on-running-for-president-i-wouldnt-rule-it-out/ar-AAkhCtg?li=AA2qN5v&ocid=spartanntp


Not sure if this was posted here earlier, but Mother Jones lists 11 dems who could defeat Trump:

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/11/democrats-defeat-trump-president-2020

Warren
Kaine (already out)
Klobuchar
Gillibrand
Harris
Duckworth
Booker
O'Malley
(Chris) Murphy
Hickenlooper
Michelle Obama (already out)

Some more whispering about Chris Murphy is within this long article (also mentions Julian Castro and some more obvious people): http://qz.com/836658/donald-trumps-age-how-baby-boomer-generation-x-and-millennial-presidents-would-change-the-course-of-america/

Get your Deblasio Buzz here: http://nypost.com/2016/11/12/clintons-loss-means-a-de-blasio-cuomo-2020-race/

Bustle.com: 7 Democrats who could run in 2020: https://www.bustle.com/articles/194585-7-democrats-who-could-run-for-president-in-2020-and-take-the-white-house-from-donald (Booker, Warren, (Sherrod) Brown, Gillibrand, Harris, Duckworth, (Tulsi) Gabbard)

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Third Party Stuff:

With Johnson ruling out another run for the libertarian nomination (http://krqe.com/blog/2016/11/09/gary-johnson-says-he-wont-run-for-president-again/), this article on Austin Petersen from September is worth another read: http://thelibertarianrepublic.com/why-austin-petersen-is-the-future-of-the-libertarian-party/

Reminders:

Journalist Dan Rattiner (I) declared a 2020 candidacy in 2015: http://www.danspapers.com/2015/04/hat-in-the-ring-dan-rattiner-running-for-president-in-2020

Adam Kokesh (L) declared a 2020 candidacy in 2013: http://independentpoliticalreport.com/2013/07/adam-kokesh-to-run-for-president-in-2020/

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Kanye West said that while he didn't vote, if he had, he would have voted for Trump. This probably lowers the odds of him running in 2020, assuming Trump runs for reelection: Kanye West: I didn't vote but if I did, 'I would have voted for Trump'
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/18/entertainment/kanye-west-donald-trump-trnd/index.html

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The only person I could see winning in 2020 is Warren. She can unite the Sanders wing of the party as well as the traditional "professional" wing of the party. Add in Kamala Harris for minority support and you have a very strong ticket.

Corey Booker is a stiff and should just go away. He's basically a failed DLC type candidate

Trump would defeat Warren by 20 points, Harris by 8 points. He'd defeat Sanders by 3 points. Booker would win by 7 points..

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This article mentions Haley, Ernst, and Vicky Hartzler (R, MO-04) as potential 2020/24 candidates, but I personally doubt any of them would actually challenge Trump: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article113891963.html

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti  3m3 minutes ago
Hard not to read into it a LITTLE when ambitious pols go to Iowa. Jason Kander→Des Moines for the Progress Iowa holiday party next month.

Yeah but he's obviously NOT running for prez. So what do you think it is? DNC Chair?

Not sure why a trip to Iowa would help one get elected DNC Chair.  Maybe he is hoping to run for prez, but in 2024 or 2028, after he wins some other office first.  Never too early to start laying the groundwork for 2028. 

He can try, but it's not like the country will ever want an ultra-partisan dem like him.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Jack Fellure is running for the republican nomination again (he was the prohibition nominee a few cycles ago): http://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/838/201611070300117838/201611070300117838.pdf

Here's something on Kander: http://forward.com/news/national/355832/jason-kander-iowa-bound-does-the-jewish-pol-have-presidential-ambitions/

And Steyer: http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/28/does-left-wing-billionaire-tom-steyer-plan-on-trumping-dems-in-2020/

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Regarding the committee assignments...looks like Kamala Harris didn't get assigned to either Armed Services or Foreign Affairs, but she did make it onto the Select Committee on Intelligence, so I guess she can argue that that at least gives her some "national security" cred:

http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-kamala-harris-nabs-national-security-1482178585-htmlstory.html

Michelle Bachmann was on that committee in the house when she ran for president. But she didn't get remotely close to the WH.........

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Maybe she could try to run for governor of NY - She'd have a decent shot at beating Cuomo, and would be safe in the general.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CPAC Schedule: http://cpac.conservative.org/agenda/

Thursday:

~9:30 AM: Scott Walker
10:05 AM: PANEL DISCUSSION: Matt Bevin, Sam Brownback, Doug Ducey, Scott Walker
11:10 AM: Ted Cruz
7:30 PM: Mike Pence

Friday:

10:20 AM: Donald Trump
3:00 PM: Carly Fiorina

Saturday:

1:10 PM: PANEL DISCUSSION: Tom Borielli, Francis Rooney, Alex Smith, Scott Walker
2:25 PM: PANEL DISCUSSION: Robert Davi, Niger Innis, Rick Santorum, Salena Zito
3:05 PM: STRAW POLL

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Not that his run was ever all that likely, but Paul Ryan will not try to primary Trump:

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In the context of the article, "this" is referring to his current job - house speaker

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/paul-ryan-obamacare-repeal-trump-236229

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Dana Bash @DanaBashCNN
Wow. @JohnKasich just told me he isn't running again for president.

Looks like his statement was far less than Shermanesque:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/kasich-thinks-he-wont-run-for-president-again-but-doesnt-close-the-door/article/2618475

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In any case, Kasich has a book coming out next month, and his book tour will take him back to New Hampshire, so I’m sure he’ll be asked this question many more times in the near future.

And btw, for someone who's not running for president again, he sure does like giving interviews on the Sunday news shows.  It seems like he's been on there every other week since the inauguration, which has got to be way more than any other governor in the country.

Just before that though, he said the word no about 8 times, so pretty close to shernanesque:. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/john-kasich-president-2020_us_58d7d3ffe4b03692bea6c7a5

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This article focuses mostly on the possibility of Scott Pruitt running for senate, but it reads like a standard lengthy profile for a potential presidential candidate: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/21/is-scott-pruitt-on-the-campaign-trail-241814

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Democratic polling percentages from that aforementioned "Everyone is Running" article.

Biden - 51%
Blumenthal - 42%
Booker - 42%
Cuban - 42%
Delaney - 38%
Harris - 39%
Sanders - 51%
Warren - 45%

Dear god, have we learned nothing?

What are these? The % of primary voters that would find the candidate to be an acceptable nominee? The % they would get against Trump? The chance that they'll run?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Democratic polling percentages from that aforementioned "Everyone is Running" article.

Biden - 51%
Blumenthal - 42%
Booker - 42%
Cuban - 42%
Delaney - 38%
Harris - 39%
Sanders - 51%
Warren - 45%

Dear god, have we learned nothing?

What are these? The % of primary voters that would find the candidate to be an acceptable nominee? The % they would get against Trump? The chance that they'll run?

Im pretty sure those are the percentages from the ppp poll of all these candidates vs trump

If that's the case, then some of those numbers are pretty sad, as some of them are worse for Ds than my own supposedly outrageous predictions. (I have Biden at 60%, Booker at 50%, Delaney and Harris at 44%.)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ Wikipedia told me that Gillibrand, McAuliffe, and Warren aren't running, so.....

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Democratic polling percentages from that aforementioned "Everyone is Running" article.

Biden - 51%
Blumenthal - 42%
Booker - 42%
Cuban - 42%
Delaney - 38%
Harris - 39%
Sanders - 51%
Warren - 45%

Dear god, have we learned nothing?

So 38% is the Dem floor because no one -- and I mean no one -- knows who Delaney is. Basically an anyone but Trump (did the poll mention party for these matchups?)

It did mention party, but obviously Delaney would get more than 38% in the GE. My estimate is that Trump would beat Delaney 52%-44% in the NPV.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Aside from Gender, what are the differences between Sanders and Warren? It seems that if both ran they'd be going for the exact same group of voters, split it, and hand the nomination to someone more establishment.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's not time yet, Joe. Come back in 2036.

Not looking forward to the New Hampshire Democratic Primary Ballot having 60 names on it, are we?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Biden is the only Dem who could defeat Trump by over 20%. Just think about all the congressional seats that would inevitably come with that. If he doesn't run, he's making a huge mistake.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://www.axios.com/clinton-says-shell-never-again-run-for-office-2483647276.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic

Axios - Clinton says she'll never again run for office.

Rejoice, fellow Democrats.

Good Riddens. This country is sick and tired of the Clintons, and it's only because the main alternative was so terrible that she got as close as she did to the Presidency. Rubio, Kasich, and probably even Cruz would have won even more comfortably in the EC, and gotten a narrow win in the NPV.