The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

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Also neither Clinton nor Trump are currently in office, and one of them will be the next President, so....

But I think Rubio was being sarcastic.

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I think Rand is out. His campaign bombed and the Ron Paul liberty movement is largely in disarray, splintered between purists, people supporting Johnson, or going to Trump.

Yeah, Amash is our best hope in my opinion. He's more popular with the base while maintaining an ability to appeal to a broader base without alienating his core like Rand did.

Couldn't Cruz do that too?

Cruz is just a really extreme conservative.

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Pence and Santorum, among others, spoke at the Values Voters Summit this weekend:

http://www.valuesvotersummit.org

I know for a fact that Santorum wants to be president badly and that he was hoping to get nominated at a contested convention this year.

I hope he becomes the next Harold Stassen.

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This thread is for actual news, not that sort of speculation.

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Hey guys, there are plenty of threads here for idle speculation.  This thread is about actual news about people who might run.  Not really intended for "Hey, what about X?  Maybe he'll run." type posts, that aren't grounded in any actual news.

I think maybe you should post this in the title or something. People are ignoring it.

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I'm writing letters to Representative Stephen Lynch, Brian Schweitzer and Jon Tester imploring them to consider a run for 2020.

A social conservative will never win the nomination (No Lynch), Brian Schweitzer is past his time and also kinda nuts. Tester I could support.

Lynch isn't really even a social conservative. He's a conservative in comparison to the rest of Massachusetts's politicians. Which is like being the most honest man in Washington.

He'd do about as well as Lincoln Chafee. He wouldn't even have name recognition in Massachusetts outside his district if it wasn't for his failed Senate run in 2013.

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I guess if I had to pick a dream candidate from the MA House delegation it would be Jim McGovern. He's able to sell progressive ideas in a relatively moderate district. But he's expressed no interest in running for higher office.

We're getting kind of off-topic though.

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de Blasio is definitely under hyped for 2020.

I love him, but the last person the Democrats need right now is the mayor of New York, whoever that is.

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de Blasio is definitely under hyped for 2020.

I love him, but the last person the Democrats need right now is the mayor of New York, whoever that is.

Similarly, I think the biggest problem with Harris at this point is the optics of her having been a San Francisco local politician. Most of the other negatives about her can be cancelled out--'muh soft on crime' with the fact that she was a DA, her less-than-Ozzie and Harriet personal life with Trump's vastly worse one, et cetera--but not that one, unfair as that is.

Yeah, I still think Harris is a good candidate, but that is a major roadblock for her.

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Republican Governors Association is meeting this week, and as this story notes, it now looks like folks like Kasich and Walker are putting their presidential ambitions on hold because Trump will presumably be re-nominated in 2020:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-11-15/now-in-trump-s-shadow-republican-governors-put-presidential-aspirations-on-hold

In Kasich's case, "on hold" might well mean "giving up on", since he'll be over 70 in 2024.

I wouldn't be shocked if he runs in 2024, but he'll do about as well as George Pataki.

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I would argue Sanders is the de facto frontrunner, or at least tied for that nod with Warren.

There's only been one poll (from before the 2016 election) and it had Warren ahead. I'm not sure if Sanders was even included though.

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Problem with Tester is that we need someone who can hold that sest in Montana. I guess Bullock can appoint himself, but I'd rather if he ran against Daines.

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I would argue Sanders is the de facto frontrunner, or at least tied for that nod with Warren.

I'm actually not sure it's likely they'll both throw their hat into the ring, since they agree on almost everything, and by splitting the vote, they would risk throwing the nomination to an establishment Dem.

Yeah, Sanders and Warren aren't both going to run. I'd probably bet on neither of them running, but they certainly aren't both going to run.

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Is Kaine the only Democrat who has explicitly ruled out a run?

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Is Kaine the only Democrat who has explicitly ruled out a run?

Among actual politicians?  Yes, I believe he's the only one.  However, Michelle Obama has also ruled out running:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/16/politics/michelle-obama-president-sxsw/index.html

Oh right, I heard about that.

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There probably isn't a huge risk of losing that Senate seat in New Jersey (compared to Florida, where that was considered a real risk for the GOP), so the only issue is if Booker himself wants to stay in the Senate after 2020.

This is also an issue for Coons, Franken, Merkley, Peters, Udall, Warner, Markey, Shaheen, Reed, and Durbin. Most of those people are definitely not running though I guess all of those people could theoretically be VP choices. I don't know what the laws say in all of those states.

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This is also an issue for Coons, Klobuchar, Merkley, Peters, Udall, Warner, Markey, Shaheen, Reed, and Durbin.

Klobuchar's seat isn't up in 2020.  Franken's seat is up that year.

Whoops, I knew that. Let me edit.

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Cory Booker is in for 2020. 
Heard him on NPR today he is already taking positions far to the left of where he was when he ran for Senate 2 yrs ago. 

Which specific issues?

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Trump would defeat Warren by 20 points,

lol

He'd beat her. Just take the zero away from Wulfric's number and it isn't that bad a post.

If trends go in the other direction this time that could translate to a Warren victory in the electoral college.

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I doubt it, Warren will have trouble with minorities like Clinton. Warren also will have to pull in hispanics where she has little appeal. John Bel Edwards will do a pretty good job with Southern Democrats while still being able to win over minorities with a strong VP. Warren could do the same with Castro but the ticket would be awkward with opposing ideologys. Warren only wins in places where Democrats have an assured victory.

Welcome to the forum!

[Figueira]

Let's run a Southerner in 2020. Focus on turning NC, GA, and FL Democratic with potential to make the other southern states remember that there is a Democratic Party. I say forget the Midwest. If they want to vote for the Dem great, but Dems need to focus on the south. The future of the party is to build a solid bi-coastal coalition and make occasional inroads in the inland south and inland north.

Republicans had a tea party purge beginning 8 years ago and it's clear the Dems need to do the same and forget old strategies that didn't work. We need to appeal to the south.

Which Southerner do we run, though?

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Martin Heinrich (D-NM) (Senator Dreamboat) has taken up the mantle of attacking the Dakota Access Pipeline. He could be a good candidate. Pro-environment and anti-mass surveillance, but he doesn't have a widely publicized or controversial background to my knowledge (that's what holds Sanders and Warren back). This could be a start of Heinrich raising his profile for a 2020 run. He's pretty young (he'll be 49 in 2020), he's had two terms in the House (2009-2013) and will have been in the Senate for about 8 years. He also doesn't have the stigma of being a coastal liberal.

http://krwg.org/post/heinrich-calls-president-reroute-dakota-access-pipeline

The main drawback of Heinrich in the primary is that he had an A rating from the NRA at one point. Even Sanders has a D-, and it was a major issue for him.

But otherwise, yeah, I think he might be our best bet actually.

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I guess they could go the Grover Clevland route but im not sure how receptive the party will be to her in 2020.

That would be the Adlai Stevenson route. The Grover Cleveland route would be nominating Jimmy Carter.

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I guess they could go the Grover Clevland route but im not sure how receptive the party will be to her in 2020.

That would be the Adlai Stevenson route. The Grover Cleveland route would be nominating Jimmy Carter.

It would be the Stevenson route in the sense that she didnt win, but the Cleveland route in the sense that she won the popular vote and ran again.

I guess, but Cleveland was actually President before.

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One thing I missed was that in Evan McMullin's concession speech he mentioned 2020:

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/09/2020-evan-mcmullin-calls-conservative-movement.html

McMullin's continued to be critical of Trump since election day, so it wouldn't shock me if he ends up running again in 2020....but this time in the Republican primary.

I think he might win a state, but I have no idea which one. Maine? Arkansas?