Crossing the 50 percent barrier.

[Wisconsin+17]

Trump vs McCain/Romney

Interestingly enough, in the national polling, Trump is still stronger than Romney was at equivalent points of their run.

Romney hit 38.3 in March 6th of 2012.

He would finally break 40 percent a month later on April 9th.

Trump was slightly weaker than Romney at 37.5 in March 6th - crossing 40 percent March 19th, and leveling off at 42.5 percent. Romney - the previous weakest Republican nominee, didn't cross the 50 percent barrier until the end of April.

This month will be crucial for Trump's nomination. He will have to cross the 50 percent barrier nationwide by the end of April or he will likely not get the nomination.

[Mallow]

Out of curiosity, what were Obama's national polling numbers at this time? And are you talking polling average, or a specific poll?

[Lord of the Dome]

Out of curiosity, what were Obama's national polling numbers at this time? And are you talking polling average, or a specific poll?

realclearpolitics has Obama at 46.2 on the 30th of March 2008 having broken 40 on the 3rd of Feb.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

[Mallow]

Out of curiosity, what were Obama's national polling numbers at this time? And are you talking polling average, or a specific poll?

realclearpolitics has Obama at 46.2 on the 30th of March 2008 having broken 40 on the 3rd of Feb.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

Thanks! I think the OP meant the general election, though?

[Wisconsin+17]

Polling average per RCP. Romney is the only republican nominee not to get 50+ percent in the national average by April 1st. Trump will join him as the second.

We already know that Trump is a weak nominee, but so far he seems to be stronger than Romney.

[Mallow]

Polling average per RCP. Romney is the only republican nominee not to get 50+ percent in the national average by April 1st. Trump will join him as the second.

We already know that Trump is a weak nominee, but so far he seems to be stronger than Romney.

Are you talking general election, or primaries?

[Wisconsin+17]

Obama broke 50 percent by late April. Clinton never did - her peak of 48.5 back in October is a bit of an aberration.

IOW - Trump should have sufficient momentum to push through, but he has to do it this month. He needs to win over the disaffected by April. Clinton was at 43 in 2012, April 1st and still lost the nomination.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Mallow - 50 percent in the primaries seems to be a significant number. I'm asserting that 50 percent in a national primary poll means that you will be the nominee.

The length of time in which the nominee takes to get to that seems to be an indicator of strength in a national election.

[Sir Mohamed]

As far as I know, there were different election dates in some states. FL for example voted already in on January 31. So not sure, whether Mitt 2012 and Drumpf 2016 poll numbers are comparable.

[Desroko]

Obama broke 50 percent by late April. Clinton never did - her peak of 48.5 back in October is a bit of an aberration.

IOW - Trump should have sufficient momentum to push through, but he has to do it this month. He needs to win over the disaffected by April. Clinton was at 43 in 2012, April 1st and still lost the nomination.

Do you think maybe it was because she wasn't running for the nomination?

Also, what "peak" at 48.5? She's over a majority on RCP, Pollster, and 538 right now.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Hillary's election curves are unique.

[Mallow]

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Mallow - 50 percent in the primaries seems to be a significant number. I'm asserting that 50 percent in a national primary poll means that you will be the nominee.

The length of time in which the nominee takes to get to that seems to be an indicator of strength in a national election.

Ah, so we're just talking primary. Sounds reasonable.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Her peak in 2012.

[Wisconsin+17]

Clinton also has a chance of being the first nominee with greater than 50 percent to lose an election. She's not particularly strong for this time of the cycle, but she's definitely stronger this year than the previous cycle, and stronger than Romney and Trump.

[Mr. Morden]

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Her peak in 2012.

She didn't run for president in 2012.

[Desroko]

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Her peak in 2012.

...what is wrong with you? She didn't run in 2012.

[Wisconsin+17]

Blah. 2008. I need coffee!

[Meclazine for Israel]

I dont think the comparison is valid.

There are so many 'breakout' features of this election season.

The undwrlying factors leading to the numbers are way out ofnwhack with any previous campaign.

You have an isolational nationalist who has grabbed the ball and run with it.