Have we passed Peak Trump?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The Republican field has been whittled down to one moderate and one conservative in addition to Trump, who has yet to break 50% anywhere (I think). Trump has slid to 95% of his target for 'delegates won' at 538, and seems stuck there. Marquette just came out with massive unfavorables for Trump. Nationally Trump's numbers are back down where they were last August versus either Clinton or Sanders.

Are we past Peak Trump?

I'm not asking for a prediction on the nomination. It could always be stolen from him if the GOP is willing to cross enough lines. And even if he's peaked, a crashed Trump could still crawl over the finish line, somehow. (Unpledged delegates, winning on a later ballot, etc.) But do his vote percentages, his national standing, his percentage of target delegates, go up from here to take the nomination without contest and a strong march towards the general or down to a long, ugly struggle that's unlikely to result in victory?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

When I thought OC had peaked, I was incredibly wrong, so I won't take the risk again. Trump's probably got some hilarious scripts up his sleeve still.

[Vosem]

_trump's support hasn't meaningfully grown since before the primaries started (he has picked up support since then, but it seems concentrated in areas he won anyway, so it's not particularly meaningful). His percent of the popular vote and percent of delegates will get one more boost in the mid-Atlantic, but it looks unlikely to be sufficient to win him the nomination.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I keep trying to envision either Cruz or Kasich winning the CA primary, and I just can't see either happening.

[Vosem]

I keep trying to envision either Cruz or Kasich winning the CA primary, and I just can't see either happening.

Well, it seems pretty clear that unless something really radically changes it's going to be a battle between Cruz and _trump, with Cruz favored. So you can wait till June and envisioning won't be necessary.

[Gass3268]

No because he's best region is still coming. That being said it is really amazing how bad of a fit he is in the Upper Midwest (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin).

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

If I were to get a nickle every time I've heard "we passed peak Trump" since he started leading in the pre-primary polls, I'd be a freaking millionaire.

[Slow Learner]

Peak Trump lasted a pretty long time, if true.

[Prince of Salem]

If I were to get a nickle every time I've heard "we passed peak Trump" since he started leading in the pre-primary polls, I'd be a freaking millionaire.

[Seriously?]

No because he's best region is still coming. That being said it is really amazing how bad of a fit he is in the Upper Midwest (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin).

Trump almost won Iowa.

Minnesota is the only state that didn't vote for Reagan in '84 and is one of the most liberal states in the country. They held a very restrictive caucus.

The jury is still out in Wisconsin, but the evidence shows that Cruz leads.

Trump's true bad fit region is the Mountain West. He won Illinois and Michigan.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Not overreacting, I'm just proposing a hypothetical and was curious as to what The Atlas thinks of this.

I heard it a while ago on CNN when discussing Trump's downward trend in terms of Trump's polling in PA, WA and CA and how all these gaffes and scandals that have been swirling around Trump in recent days/weeks may be reaching the "critical mass" stage in which The Donald is no longer Teflon and these scandals and gaffes are beginning to crack into Trump's heavily fortified armor, do you agree with this notion or not?

Gaffes and scandals I'm referring to here are the "punish women who get abortions" gaffe, the Corey Lewandowski battery scandal, the fact he has been incoherent with many of his foreign and domestic policy positions this week as the Town Hall showed, etc.,

He is no longer dominating headlines and instead is being subjected to them

[P123]

In the general? basically. In the primary? nope.

[Dr. Arch]

In the general? basically. In the primary? nope.

[Mehmentum]

In the general? basically. In the primary? nope.

[Oak Hills]

I want to say yes, but my pessimism leads me to vote no.

[i4indyguy]

I would say yes, though he may maintain at a sufficient level to get himself over the finish line and clinch a pluerality.

No because he's best region is still coming. That being said it is really amazing how bad of a fit he is in the Upper Midwest (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin).

This is interesting. I regarded Trump as being very potent in the 'rust belt' on the basis of economic populism. How could Donald Trump be a good fit for some great lakes states and a bad fit for others.  Could I be wrong in thinking a state like PA or OH represents an ideal hunting ground for him (at least on the R side of things)?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I would say yes, though he may maintain at a sufficient level to get himself over the finish line and clinch a pluerality.

No because he's best region is still coming. That being said it is really amazing how bad of a fit he is in the Upper Midwest (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin).

This is interesting. I regarded Trump as being very potent in the 'rust belt' on the basis of economic populism. How could Donald Trump be a good fit for some great lakes states and a bad fit for others.  Could I be wrong in thinking a state like PA or OH represents an ideal hunting ground for him (at least on the R side of things)?

Yes, there's a very stark cultural divide in the Midwest that Trump cuts in half.

[Lincoln Republican]

Trump's hateful, bigoted, stupid statements have caught up with him.

His campaign is at the beginning of a downward spiral.

Watch Cruz crush Trump in Wisconsin on Tuesday, which will be only the beginning of the unstoppable Cruz juggernaut.

[Maxwell]

It's Trump - let's wait and see. If he loses Wisconsin by as much as is expected, we may see a downward spiral.

[TJ in Oregon]

I think we actually might have. His campaign manager getting arrested seems to have turned some more nonpolitical people against him. His numbers seem to have taken a bit of a hit in the last week. It may just be a bump in the road of course, but it's difficult to see how he can bring more people into his fold at this point. Slowly the cult becomes deprogrammed. It still might not be fast enough to stop him, and when we get to a contested convention (assuming of course Trump doesn't get to 1237 beforehand, things could get ugly enough to give him a second life. But (yes I know others have been saying this for months), I actually do think this time it is the beginning of the end.

[Orser67]

I wouldn't be surprised if Trump hits a bump and Cruz steals the spotlight. But I could see Cruz in turn losing momentum after it looks like he has a serious chance of winning and people take a long look at him.

[Ebsy]

[Wisconsin+17]

Trump has lead except for a few days in November the entire race. He's on track to becoming the nominee, both in the delegates that he's won and his current position in the race (he's better than Romney, fwiw).

That being said, he's the nominee who's waited the longest to reach a majority in any state. Until he does, he'll be vulnerable all the way to the convention.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump, who is another enterpreneur like Romney, hit the same themes as Romney did. Im a businessman and know how to run a business. That was enough to take out Jeb. As Primaries went on and Cruz and Kasich start gaining momentum, Trump who committed a flub, like that on abortion, voters realize now that he's not an officeholder, and commit rookie mistakes like that.

[SillyAmerican]

Peak Trump, is that Donald's brother? We may have passed him on the road the other day...