Sanders's path (or lack thereof) to victory (from 538)

[IceSpear]

A narrow Sanders win in Wisconsin would be devastating to his chances of reaching a majority of pledged delegates.

Nah, that's wishful thinking. Since CA unfortunately votes dead last, the goalposts can and will be moved. "We just need to win CA by 20. No, 30. Actually, 40. Make that 50..."

Well, that's assuming you're planning on convincing the diehards. To the non diehards (and many of the more realistic diehards), his chances are already devastated.

[Xing]

It's mathematically all but certain that Clinton will clinch the nomination on June 7th. (For fun, I did the math to see what Clinton would need in order to secure the nomination before then, and it's about as likely as Sanders winning the nomination) I'm not denying that. Obviously, the more delegates Bernie gets, the better, as that means he gets a greater influence over the Democratic platform at the DNC.

[IceSpear]

Clinton did win Arizona, which is technically in the south, but more important a Republican state.

This "Clinton only wins safe R states" mantra needs to stop. She won Ohio, Massachusetts, Illinois, Virginia, Nevada, Florida, and Iowa, and is likely to win NY/PA/MD/DE.

Yeah, it's quite interesting this narrative is still around when you look at the facts. I'll define a safe R state as a state that has voted Republican in the last 4 elections.

Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas

Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Utah

Kentucky, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, West Virginia, Wyoming

Assuming Bernie sweeps MT/ND/SD/WY as is widely expected, they will be tied in safe R states, leaving WV/KY as deciders, states in which Bernie has a good chance to win. If anything, this gets even more favorable to Hillary if you exclude states like GA/AZ/MO from the safe R designation. Regardless, Bernie may very well end up winning a majority of safe R states. Ironic.

[Santander]

Kentucky, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, West Virginia, Wyoming

Funny, this almost reads as a list of my favorite states in the Union.

[i4indyguy]

FWIW, polls give him a much better shot at CA than PA.

But PA is first.  If he loses that, the incentive for CA voters to cast a ballot for a fore-gone conclusion looser is diminished.  If Bernie cant get to CA with a plausible route to the nomination, any CURRENT polling is irrelevant because it is predicated on a totally different scenario (i.e. things are still up in the air).