Sabato Crystal Ball Megathread

[Lyin' Steve]

See, Atlas?  Indiana and Missouri are winnable for Clinton.

[This account no longer in use.]

No. Don't fall into the Utah trap, Sabato.

[BlueSwan]

No tossups? Really Sabato? Not even North Carolina?

[Mallow]

The map looks pretty good to me. Changes I'd make are...
CO -> Safe Democratic
NV -> Safe Democratic
MI -> Safe Democratic
VA -> Likely Democratic
NH -> Likely Democratic
FL -> Tossup
NC -> Tossup
OH -> Tossup
GA -> Likely Republican
TX -> Likely Republican

Everything else I'd keep the same

[Suck my caulk]

See, Atlas?  Indiana and Missouri are winnable for Clinton.

Of course they are. Is Pennsylvania winnable for Trump, is the real question? We've been told every election since 1988 (the last time PA went red) that PA is a swing state just waiting to break red again. Well, it's been 28 years. Trump is doing well in rural PA, as he is in rural VA, but once you get into the PA suburbs (Philadelphia and Pittsburgh; Alexandria/D.C. area for VA), Clinton crushes.

[Dereich]

No tossups? Really Sabato? Not even North Carolina?

Sabato isn't doing toss-ups.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

My map:

For Trump:
Locks: ID, WY, NE-1/3/AL, OK, AR, KY, TN, AL, LA, WV
Should be in: AK, MT, ND, SD, KS, UT, TX, MS, SC
Work left to do: AZ, NE-2, MO, IN, GA

More states could be added to the Trump Bubble Watch pending post-convention polling.

[136or142]

I think the title of this thread is a little misleading.  Not sure how I would change it though.

Perhaps "towards" instead of "to".

That works.  Thanks.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Seems to check out to me, Sabato is one of the best political prognosticators.

[Nyvin]

Actually quite reasonable,  Pennsylvania was never on the same level as Wisconsin,  even though a lot of people assumed they were. 

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Actually quite reasonable,  Pennsylvania was never on the same level as Wisconsin,  even though a lot of people assumed they were. 

Nowhere close.  My map for a 50/50 PV split looks like this:

Trump 244
Clinton 243
Tossup 51

Florida for all the marbles, as usual.
Note: A 50/50 PV split is not going to happen.

[Mallow]

Actually quite reasonable,  Pennsylvania was never on the same level as Wisconsin,  even though a lot of people assumed they were. 

Nowhere close.  My map for a 50/50 PV split looks like this:


Note: A 50/50 PV split is not going to happen.

Mine is similar mostly, but with a few significant differences.

[RaphaelDLG]

No tossups? Really Sabato? Not even North Carolina?

Sabato isn't doing toss-ups.

How does he define lean and likely, then?  Are his "leans" closer than most people's "leans" - like the equivalent of "tilts?"

[Badger]

Seems to check out to me, Sabato is one of the best political prognosticators.

nah. he's grossly overrated.

[i4indyguy]

WI isn't that much harder for a Republican to win than PA. It's just that Trump is such a bad fit for the state.
[/quote]

I left the Midwest a while ago and am no longer culturally or politically in tune with the various states.   (Not that I ever was at the age of 10 anyway).    For those who think they have insights, what specifically about Culture/Economy/Platform in WI v. PA makes trump more likely to win PA than WI.

If you disagree with the premise that trump more likely to win Pa than Wi, explain as well.

[Xing]

Overall, I agree with these moves, though I might not be so quick to move Georgia to "Lean R." I understand his desire to avoid having toss-ups, but it's kind of silly for North Carolina and Nevada to be in the same category. Clearly Clinton has a much greater chance of winning Nevada.

[RaphaelDLG]

He moved Virginia from "Lean Democratic" to "Likely Democratic:"
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/clinton-kaine-a-not-so-surprising-ticket/

Thoughts?  Seems like a bit much for me; VP picks are not that consequential. 

VA is now in the same "likely" category as Utah, Indiana, Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.  They say it's less likely to go Republican now than NV, CO, PA, and NH, among others.

[Ljube]

I updated Virginia to likely in 2012, immediately after the election.

[ElectionsGuy]

Kaine overperformed Obama by... 2 points in 2012? Don't think it will be very consequential, and I agree that home state boosts have been very much reduced in the last 20 years. Disagree with Sabato and think this is too quick of a move, it should help Clinton in Virginia a little bit, but moving from Lean to Likely is a bit much.

[Dr. Arch]

Safe+Likely= 240. 30 ECs short. Add CO and it's 21 ECs short. FL or PA/OH/NC+anything else will do it.

[Heisenberg]

No way New Hampshire goes Republican before Virginia.

[Xing]

I'd definitely wait until we get some polls out of Virginia before assuming that it's that strong for Hillary.

[Ljube]

Safe+Likely= 240. 30 ECs short. Add CO and it's 21 ECs short. FL or PA/OH/NC+anything else will do it.

Granted.

It's those pesky last 21 EVs that are the problem.

[Vega]

Safe+Likely= 240. 30 ECs short. Add CO and it's 21 ECs short. FL or PA/OH/NC+anything else will do it.

Granted.

It's those pesky last 21 EVs that are the problem.

Not really. PA (and MN, too, because Republicans also try to target that before realizing it's hopeless) always comes back into the fold and is quintessential electoral fool's gold, much like Georgia and Arizona is for the Democrats barring a wave.

[Dr. Arch]

Safe+Likely= 240. 30 ECs short. Add CO and it's 21 ECs short. FL or PA/OH/NC+anything else will do it.

Granted.

It's those pesky last 21 EVs that are the problem.

Not really. PA (and MN, too, because Republicans also try to target that before realizing it's hopeless) always comes back into the fold and is quintessential electoral fool's gold, much like Georgia and Arizona is for the Democrats barring a wave.

With PA, even NE-02 nets Hillary the election.