Sabato Crystal Ball Megathread

[IceSpear]

Should probably wait for polling here. I still remember when all the pundits jumped the gun on Wisconsin in 2012, though to be fair at least Kaine represents the entire state rather than 1/8th of it.

[ElectionsGuy]

Should probably wait for polling here. I still remember when all the pundits jumped the gun on Wisconsin in 2012, though to be fair at least Kaine represents the entire state rather than 1/8th of it.

The funny thing is Romney/Ryan won WI-01 by 4 points over Obama while Ryan won over Zerban by 12 in the house.

[Heisenberg]

Should probably wait for polling here. I still remember when all the pundits jumped the gun on Wisconsin in 2012, though to be fair at least Kaine represents the entire state rather than 1/8th of it.

The funny thing is Romney/Ryan won WI-01 by 4 points over Obama while Ryan won over Zerban by 12 in the house.

I think I read somewhere that while Janesville (Ryan's hometown) is usually a Democratic-leaning city at the presidential level, Ryan still does really well there in his House races. That should explain it.

[Tender Branson]

Clinton/Kaine should win VA, yeah.

Everything else would be a huge upset, much like Gore losing TN in 2000.

But winning VA should be easier than Gore winning TN.

[Vega]

Should probably wait for polling here. I still remember when all the pundits jumped the gun on Wisconsin in 2012, though to be fair at least Kaine represents the entire state rather than 1/8th of it.

The funny thing is Romney/Ryan won WI-01 by 4 points over Obama while Ryan won over Zerban by 12 in the house.

I think I read somewhere that while Janesville (Ryan's hometown) is usually a Democratic-leaning city at the presidential level, Ryan still does really well there in his House races. That should explain it.

If there was ever a really weirdly big Democratic wave, given that he's in the Leadership he'd be prime target to lose a la Tom Foley.

[Ogre Mage]

If this were any state but Virginia I would look at Sabato's prediction skeptically, but he is from Virginia and very familiar with Kaine and the state's political dynamics.  The demographics of Virginia are poorly suited to Trump due to the higher than average number of white voters with a college degree and growing nonwhite population.

[Gass3268]

If this were any state but Virginia I would look at Sabato's prediction skeptically, but he is from Virginia and very familiar with Kaine and the state's political dynamics.  The demographics of Virginia are poorly suited to Trump due to the higher than average number of white voters with a college degree and growing nonwhite population.

Good point, I forgot that he's a professor at UVA.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Clinton/Kaine should win VA, yeah.

Everything else would be a huge upset, much like Gore losing TN in 2000.

But winning VA should be easier than Gore winning TN.

Yes, TN was turning away from the Dems by 2000, VA isn't.

[President Johnson]

Yeah, Virginia is somewhat between lean and likely D.

Big Don should heavily focus on Pennsylvania. All he has to do along winning Pennsylvania is flipping Florida and Ohio and keeping the 2012 states, and he's the 45th President.

[Nyvin]

If Virginia is off the table for Trump....literally the ONLY path the Republicans have is OH+FL+PA,  there is simply nothing left for them.

[President Johnson]

If Virginia is off the table for Trump....literally the ONLY path the Republicans have is OH+FL+PA,  there is simply nothing left for them.

Well, Wisconsin and Minnesota. But it's more likely that TRUMP wins Pennsylvania than these two or one of them.

[AGA]

Bold, but I doubt that Kaine will make that much of a difference in the state.

[ProudModerate2]

I can see it somewhere between "lean" and "likely."
If you were to twist-my-arm and force me to choose one, I would probably say "Likely Dem."

[Senator-elect Spark]

Trump wasn't going to win there anyway

[swf541]

I think the Upshot also updated it as its now more democratic leaning than new mexico and some others now on their probability tool.

[Ebsy]

I think this is a fair change. I honestly can't imagine how Trump could win Virginia in the present state of the race.

[swf541]

I think this is a fair change. I honestly can't imagine how Trump could win Virginia in the present state of the race.

I agree with the average minor bump a candidate gets from the state pretty much finishes Virginia.

[Ogre Mage]

Sabato has written an editorial on how Kaine helps Clinton:

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-tim-kaine-can-be-enormously-valuable-for-hillary-clinton/2016/07/22/fd9362d4-4f7d-11e6-a422-83ab49ed5e6a_story.html

[MT Treasurer]

They also moved the Senate race from Likely to Safe Democratic.

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http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/hanging-tough/

[pbrower2a]

I did not see a poll of the Presidency in Colorado, but the Senate race suggests that Democrats should be doing well, on the whole, in Colorado. The demographics of Colorado (large Hispanic population, large numbers of educated white people) should be brutal to Donald Trump. Besides, if Trump projects to be in a tight Presidential race in Arizona, he should be losing Colorado.

[The Other Castro]

RIP 2015 Colorado memes.

[SWE]

Trump needs to come out in favor of banning condoms. It's the only way he can win in Colorado.

[Crumpets]

Safe+Likely D + Pennsylvania = 269 EV

[Dr. Arch]

Just one more EV to move to Likely to completely lock down the map.

[Fargobison]

Not sure it is possible to pick a worse presidential candidate for CO then Trump.