Sabato Crystal Ball Megathread
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Author Topic: Sabato Crystal Ball Megathread  (Read 13842 times)
Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #100 on: August 07, 2016, 12:49:56 PM »
I kind of want to bump a thread I made in 2015 about this, but I'll wait for another CO poll first.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #101 on: August 07, 2016, 02:31:48 PM »
I remember when people said Hillary could lose Colorado while winning Missouri.
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #102 on: August 07, 2016, 02:38:11 PM »
Quote from: Arch on August 07, 2016, 12:00:02 PM
Just one more EV to move to Likely to completely lock down the map.

Forgive the TNVolunteer summoning, but if you include NH......
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #103 on: August 07, 2016, 03:28:20 PM »
With Colorado and Virginia almost out of reach for Trump, PA+OH+FL is basically his only path to victory.
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MagneticFree
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« Reply #104 on: August 07, 2016, 04:00:52 PM »
East California, enough said.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #105 on: August 07, 2016, 04:04:37 PM »

well the GOP nominated someone who is somehow an even worse fit for Colorado.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #106 on: August 07, 2016, 05:02:33 PM »
Good choice.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #107 on: August 07, 2016, 06:30:37 PM »
Very good news.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #108 on: August 07, 2016, 07:43:03 PM »
Colorado looks more and more like a Freedom State with every cycle Smiley
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Blue3
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« Reply #109 on: August 08, 2016, 12:49:38 PM »
This is nitpicky, but why are states like Iowa so crooked in that map?
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Mallow
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« Reply #110 on: August 08, 2016, 01:10:24 PM »
Quote from: Blue3 on August 08, 2016, 12:49:38 PM
This is nitpicky, but why are states like Iowa so crooked in that map?

To show that Iowa is voting for Crooked Hillary
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #111 on: August 08, 2016, 01:11:33 PM »
Quote from: Blue3 on August 08, 2016, 12:49:38 PM
This is nitpicky, but why are states like Iowa so crooked in that map?

LOL.
I don't know, but good point.
I will say, that I do like the colors on this map.
Makes it very easy to distinguish Safe/Likely/Lean for both parties.
8-)
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #112 on: August 08, 2016, 01:50:07 PM »
In my opinion
MN, WI is probably safe democrat
PA is likely democrat
NC leans republican at the least
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #113 on: August 10, 2016, 04:41:31 PM »
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-president/

Clinton's now at 269 with all Likely and Safe D states.
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Wells
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« Reply #114 on: August 10, 2016, 04:42:33 PM »
Waiting for him to move NC, AZ, and GA to Tossup.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #115 on: August 10, 2016, 04:50:27 PM »
Quote from: Libertarian Socialist on August 10, 2016, 04:42:33 PM
Waiting for him to move NC, AZ, and GA to Tossup.
NC is already lean D.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #116 on: August 10, 2016, 04:50:34 PM »
Quote from: Libertarian Socialist on August 10, 2016, 04:42:33 PM
Waiting for him to move NC, AZ, and GA to Tossup.

I think he's purposefully avoiding toss-ups for the presidential race. He already has NC as Lean D.
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #117 on: August 10, 2016, 04:52:31 PM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on August 10, 2016, 04:50:34 PM
Quote from: Libertarian Socialist on August 10, 2016, 04:42:33 PM
Waiting for him to move NC, AZ, and GA to Tossup.

I think he's purposefully avoiding toss-ups for the presidential race. He already has NC as Lean D.

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Wells
MikeWells12
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« Reply #118 on: August 10, 2016, 04:52:45 PM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on August 10, 2016, 04:51:00 PM
lol@NH being lean D. Sabato doesn't know anything about NH politics. Sad!

Neither do you.
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Wells
MikeWells12
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« Reply #119 on: August 10, 2016, 04:55:52 PM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on August 10, 2016, 04:53:26 PM
Quote from: Libertarian Socialist on August 10, 2016, 04:52:45 PM
Quote from: TN volunteer on August 10, 2016, 04:51:00 PM
lol@NH being lean D. Sabato doesn't know anything about NH politics. Sad!

Neither do you.

I have a better chance of winning NH than Donald Trump.

As long as you never mentioned NH in the campaign, absolutely. Otherwise, no.
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Nym90
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« Reply #120 on: August 10, 2016, 04:59:25 PM »
I admire that he's forcing himself to make a call one way or another on every state.

Though he does allow toss ups for other races besides President, so it doesn't make sense to consider those not "cop-outs".
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #121 on: August 10, 2016, 06:42:42 PM »
I have megathreaded Sabato (like we do for 538). Latest map as of today...



http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-president/
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #122 on: August 10, 2016, 07:05:08 PM »
Why is MN still Likely D? I disavow of this map made by my old professor.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #123 on: August 10, 2016, 07:05:21 PM »

I can accept how every state is colored here, except for N.H.
I think New Hampshire should be Likely-D, and not Lean-D.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #124 on: August 18, 2016, 12:03:47 AM »
NH: Lean D -> Likely D
NE-02: Lean R -> Lean D
SC: Safe R -> Likely R
KS: Safe R -> Likely R

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/clinton-rises-to-348-electoral-votes-trump-drops-to-190/
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