Sabato Crystal Ball Megathread

[Heisenberg]

Interesting how NE-02 went from Lean R to Lean D.

[Xing]

Hopefully, we'll get a poll out of Nevada that includes interviews in Spanish, and dispel with the #BattlegroundNV fiction as well.

Also, I think he's jumping the gun by moving Kansas to Likely R. I think Alaska, Montana, and South Dakota would definitely flip before Kansas.

[heatcharger]

Minnesota remaining Likely D is annoying but all around good moves. I wish we could get an Alaska poll soon to see what's happening there.

[ProudModerate2]

Yep.
I had mentioned last week that sites were going to start swinging NH more to the D-side.
Some sites were/are still calling it a toss-up ; they are wrong.

PS: I don't know if I agree with moving NE-02 so aggressively to the new status of Lean-D.
Maybe toss-up I can understand.

[Hammy]

Hopefully, we'll get a poll out of Nevada that includes interviews in Spanish, and dispel with the #BattlegroundNV fiction as well.

Also, I think he's jumping the gun by moving Kansas to Likely R. I think Alaska, Montana, and South Dakota would definitely flip before Kansas.

Probably, but I don't know that we've had polling from those states whereas Kansas we have.

[IceSpear]

Yep.
I had mentioned last week that sites were going to start swinging NH more to the D-side.
Some sites were/are still calling it a toss-up ; they are wrong.

PS: I don't know if I agree with moving NE-02 so aggressively to the new status of Lean-D.
Maybe toss-up I can understand.

It's because Sabato doesn't use toss ups.

[ProudModerate2]

Yep.
I had mentioned last week that sites were going to start swinging NH more to the D-side.
Some sites were/are still calling it a toss-up ; they are wrong.

PS: I don't know if I agree with moving NE-02 so aggressively to the new status of Lean-D.
Maybe toss-up I can understand.

It's because Sabato doesn't use toss ups.

Ah .... OK.
I kind of like that, actually. Make "a call" on everything.
The only confusion with their map, is that they actually have a "toss-up" designation in their legend .... maybe they should remove it.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Encouraging.

[IceSpear]

B-b-b-but muh elastic swingy White Granite Staters

lol, did you like the opening paragraph?

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[Heisenberg]

B-b-b-but muh elastic swingy White Granite Staters

lol, did you like the opening paragraph?

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Look, 2000 was just a fluke, Bush was a good fit for the state (in 2000) and had family connections to New England. Since then, the nation has become more polarized and New Hampshire has swung hard to the left. The state is still important due to the primary, but that's it. It is NOT a swing state. Period. End of story. People need to stop fussing over that stupid little state.

[Gass3268]

Clinton now over 270 with just Safe and Likely D states!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

B-b-b-but muh elastic swingy White Granite Staters

lol, did you like the opening paragraph?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Look, 2000 was just a fluke, Bush was a good fit for the state (in 2000) and had family connections to New England. Since then, the nation has become more polarized and New Hampshire has swung hard to the left. The state is still important due to the primary, but that's it. It is NOT a swing state. Period. End of story. People need to stop fussing over that stupid little state.

That's not it and IIRC, it was pretty close in 2004 too.  Until 2006, its whole congressional delegation was Republican and had been since 1994.  However, the Republican Party has changed quite a bit since then and in doing so, has alienated many voters who used to vote straight ticket Republican.  And it isn't like the Dems have a lock on the state.  Sununu clearly would've won had he been up in 2010 rather than 2008 and Shaheen (along with John Lynch) was considered one of the only two Dems with a shot at unseating him.  Scott Brown coming as close as he did was a fluke, but Ayotte destroyed Hodes in 2010.  She's doing badly now b/c she's run a piss-poor campaign.  Ayotte used the same strategy with Trump that Blanche Lincoln used for Obamacare with predictable results.  She was narrowly leading until that happened and never recovered.

[Ljube]

I moved it to likely D four years ago.

[ProudModerate2]

Clinton now over 270 with just Safe and Likely D states!

Yes .... you are correct. Nice.
Adds up to 273 !
Cha-Ching.

[AGA]

I was surprised to see KS as Likely R, but there actually was a recent poll done by Survey USA, which has an A+ rating from 538, that had Trump up by just 5 points. I still believe that it is Safe R because of two other polls with Trump ahead by double digits.

IN and MN should be Safe R and Safe D respectively.

[ProudModerate2]

** UPDATE **
Dated Sept 15, 2016




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To read the Sabato commentary (" Where Are We in This Strange Race for President? And can Trump breach Fortress Obama? ") that relates to their Sept 15, 2016 updated map, please click this link :
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-fundamentals-where-are-we-in-this-strange-race-for-president/

[Buffalo Bill]

See how polls in the primary are meaningless?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

When all the polls turns against you, go to Sabato

[Devout Centrist]

So... why doesn't he just move FL, OH, etc. to Tossup? This is stupid.

I thought he prides himself on never having tossups

[GeorgiaModerate]

So... why doesn't he just move FL, OH, etc. to Tossup? This is stupid.

He makes an effort to avoid tossups and actually predict each state, which is a nice idea, but I think calling some of the states tossups would be a truer picture of the race.

[PaperKooper]

I'm surprised that he didn't move at least Iowa to lean-R. 

[ProudModerate2]

I'm surprised that he didn't move at least Iowa to lean-R.  

Though I despise trump, I do agree with you here.
From all the "Leans D" states & CD's (baby-blue in color) on this updated map, maybe Iowa should be in the "Leans R" category (and possibly also NE-2).

[Buffalo Bill]

I don't like moving states into columns unless we're basing it off of real votes in recent elections.

[KingSweden]

I'm surprised that he didn't move at least Iowa to lean-R. 

[KingSweden]

The analysis Sabato posted is actually very good; but yeah, his map is basically paused right now until the debates it seems.

Agreed. Wait and see is his stance. Agree that some of those marginals C was looking at in August are gone (I.e SC and UT)