Libertarian Thread

[sparkey]

I predict that McAfee will be center stage, Gary Johnson will be wearing sneakers, and there will be a blind Vietnam vet in the audience who looks like he's sleeping, but is really just concentrating.

Also, I'm less confident of this, but I think that Gary Johnson probably won't do as well as the other two. Johnson debated Petersen recently in Oregon, and got beaten pretty badly. 1:07:11 is particularly bad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cD9_SygKxRw

It's also interesting that on Facebook and the like, both McAfee and Petersen have been really promoting this debate, but Johnson, not so much.

[sparkey]

When/Where?

Fox Business Network, first half tomorrow at 9PM Eastern, second half April 8 at 9PM Eastern. It was prerecorded 2 days ago in NYC.

[sparkey]

This is a good debate so far. All 3 candidates are doing pretty well IMO. http://amthirdpartyreport.com/2016/04/01/libertarian-presidential-debate-streaming-live-on-fox-business-now/

[sparkey]

"Governor Johnson, should the Jewish baker be forced to make a cake for the Nazi wedding?"

"Yes, that is my contention."

I want to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume that he wasn't really paying attention to the precise question that Petersen and Stossel were asking. But that was cringe-worthy.

[sparkey]

My takeaways are almost identical to Enduro's, except that I had already switched to supporting McAfee from Johnson based on previous debates. IMO: McAfee > Petersen > Johnson this round. Petersen said on Facebook that he got better the second round. We'll see next week.

[sparkey]

McAfee doesn't seem to really care much about getting onto Libertarian primary ballots. It seems that he's mostly focused on sending delegates to the convention by other means. I'm not familiar with the Libertarian process, though, but I know only like five states have a primary or caucus for them and they HAVE to pick delegates SOMEHOW.

Correct, primaries/caucuses don't affect LP delegates. LP delegates are not bound, so that they can make up their minds after the National Convention debate. Consider the Stossel debate a warm-up for that one, which will be the most important debate by far. Badnarik won in 2004 after a strong LNC debate performance.

[sparkey]

sparkey, there appears to be serious, noticeable negative momentum for Johnson as of late, but is it enough to prevent him from getting a majority of delegates in your view? Can one of the other candidates (most likely McAfee) be able to create a large enough coalition to usurp Johnson?

I think McAfee can do it, although it's still a long shot. He'll need a stellar LNC debate performance, and probably multiple ballots with Perry and Petersen supporters moving to him. I'm not sure that Perry or Petersen can pull it off, though, with the main problem being that they'll have difficulty pulling support from each other.

[sparkey]

For DWPerry and Marc Allan Feldman fans disappointed at their exclusion, they apparently went off and had their own debate on April 1 in Washington, DC. It will be posted to the PublicSquare.net YouTube channel sometime pretty soon (it's not there quite yet): https://www.youtube.com/user/PublicSquarenet/videos

DWPerry's giant disembodied head previously debated a Green Party candidate on that same channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXVyK30Zbn4

There was also a debate here in California yesterday, although Perry didn't make it. It was two rounds and featured 4 brand new candidates in the first round, before they were eliminated, and the second round ended up being McAfee, Johnson, Petersen, and Feldman. The livestream was awful and kept cutting out, so I only caught bits and pieces, but I actually thought Feldman did pretty well.

[sparkey]

The California Libertarian Party straw poll gave a predictable 1. Johnson 2. McAfee result, but with a surprise 3rd place: http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2016/04/presidential-straw-poll-at-ca-lp-convention-shows-johnson-as-winner-mcafee-in-second-place/

[sparkey]

Honestly, if Sam Sloan is running, him. I wish Carl Person would run, though.

Well, yeah, Sloan announced his switch to the Libertarian race from the Democratic race at the CA LP convention a couple of days ago. I didn't think that support for him was a real thing, though. What do you see in Sloan?

Carl Person is an interesting guy and should have gotten into the LNC debate in 2012, but Johnson hoarded too many tokens. He's getting too old (currently 79).

[sparkey]

An interesting development in the race is the growing McAfee/Petersen friendship, and their coordinated attacks against Johnson. On McAfee's Facebook, he calls Johnson the "past" of the party and claims that "Gary must know that he cannot win," while at the same time calling Petersen the "future" of the party. Petersen, meanwhile, is posting attacks against Johnson ("Gary Johnson is immature") while writing out a detailed defense of McAfee regarding his Belize adventures: "I feel the need to defend my friend here. He was only accused, and everyone is innocent until proven guilty. He was accused by a corrupt government who was trying to extort him. I have quickly grown to like him, and even trust him a little."

An endorsement pact between Petersen and McAfee, whereby they promise to endorse one another should one drop out before the other during balloting at the LNC, could significantly increase both of their chances.

[sparkey]

Debate is back on: http://amthirdpartyreport.com/2016/04/01/libertarian-presidential-debate-streaming-live-on-fox-business-now/

[sparkey]

I thought that there was less to separate the candidates in the second round. McAfee probably did better the first round; Petersen kept chugging along with his soundbites as he does; Johnson probably did better the second round. Since I had McAfee > Petersen > Johnson for the first round, I guess that puts me at McAfee = Petersen = Johnson for the second round. And reminds me that all three of these guys would be easy to vote for in the general.

[sparkey]

Hey, Sparkey, what's your current prediction of how the delegates at the convention will vote? While it may not make Independent Political Report like the last one did, it would still be interesting to see what you think.

It's actually pretty similar to before, except I'm not sure that GJ will win in 1 ballot anymore. I still think DWPerry overperforms, but doesn't have the ability to get supporters of dropouts to move to him. Maybe 3 ballots for GJ? Something like:

1st ballot:
GJ 40%
JMc 20%
DWP 18%
AP 17%
others/NOTA: 5%

2nd ballot (Feldman or whoever eliminated):
GJ 41%
JMc 21%
DWP 19%
AP 18%
NOTA: 1%

3rd ballot (Petersen eliminated):
GJ 51%
JMc 27%
DWP 20%
NOTA: 2%

A McAfee winning scenario involving Petersen endorsing him, just for fun:

1st ballot:
GJ 34%
JMc 26%
DWP 18%
AP 17%
others/NOTA: 5%

2nd ballot (Feldman or whoever eliminated):
GJ 35%
JMc 27%
DWP 19%
AP 18%
NOTA: 1%

3rd ballot (Petersen eliminated):
GJ 41%
JMc 38%
DWP 19%
NOTA: 2%

4th ballot (Perry eliminated):
JMc 49%
GJ 47%
NOTA: 4%

McAfee could then pull from NOTA a little bit to win.

[sparkey]

If Trump wins the nomination, I will support Petersen, Feldman or Perry if they win the nomination. Other than that, I don't know what I'd do.

"Abolish the Federal government" Perry is acceptable to you, but not Johnson or McAfee?

[sparkey]

If you can't get enough LP debates, there were 2 more within the past few days. Austin Petersen has the videos: https://www.facebook.com/ProducerPetersen/videos

The Texas LP hosted a McAfee/Johnson/Petersen/Feldman/Sterling debate on Friday.

Then, the Florida LP hosted a Johnson/Petersen/Feldman/Perry debate on Saturday.

[sparkey]

Why do people take McAfee seriously? The guy was investigated for murder and has a lot of personal life issues that could prevent the Libertarians from maybe hitting 3% this cycle.

He is a great speaker with a brilliant mind, a lot of interesting ideas, and a genuinely interesting life. He was not investigated for murder, he was only wanted for questioning but noped right out of there because the Belize authorities were being awful to him before for other reasons.

[sparkey]

How are Libertarian delegates apportioned and chosen?

It's decided state-by-state. Most are just whatever party regulars want to go, up until the allotment is filled. They aren't supposed to be bound to a candidate.

[sparkey]

Does anybody know where I can find a recording of the Libertarian debate that took place today?

It will air on TheBlaze on Friday, and (presumably audio only) on the Penn's Sunday School podcast on Sunday.