Cruz will be the nominee. Prove me wrong.
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 12:58:37 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Cruz will be the nominee. Prove me wrong.
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: Cruz will be the nominee. Prove me wrong.  (Read 2559 times)
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,625
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: March 31, 2016, 11:21:58 PM »

Whats the point?  Cruz will get crushed in tge general anyway under any of those senerios.    Trump will essentially campaign against the gop thus helping Hillary prob run some sort of 3rd party campaign .     Cruz will be served up as a sacrificial lamb. Funny thing is hes so stupid not to see it coming.

BTW Trump supporters are more likely to vote for Hillary than Cruzs small far right base.  The Gop is walking into a trap if Ted Cruz wins by some sort of convention trick.

Well, the point is that, while he is still unlikely to win, Cruz does seem likely to do several percentage points better than trump, which would probably be enough to keep the Senate, keep Scalia's SCOTUS seat vacant, and try to do this all right 4 years from now. You gotta work with the cards you're dealt. We can't go back in time, put a muzzle on Chris Christie (like a dog!), and give Rubio the nomination. Doesn't work that way.

In terms of the original post, I agree with your 80-90% that trump won't get 1237 through the voting, but he does have one final card left to play, which is that some of the territorial/Pennsylvanian uncommitted delegates will be sympathetic to him, and we don't know how many. That'll give him a final delegate boost. I don't know if it'll be enough to take him over 1237 on the first ballot (I personally doubt it), but I would say the odds right now are more 60-70% range than 80-90%.

Also, whoever talked about Montana: judging by Idahoan results trump does probably have an outside shot here (though Cruz is still favored, even in the three-way). He'd be doomed in a two-way race, so hopefully Cruz's effort to get Kasich off the ballot there will both be successful and not get too much bad blood between them.

Agreed.  I like Trump and support his ideas, but part of me wants him to lose the nomination.  Give it to Cruz, he'll likely do better in the general, and then someone with views similar to Trump (but makes fewer gaffes and is more moderate) can run and beat Hillary in 2020.  My fear is that Trump could deliver the House to the Dems, whereas Cruz can probably keep both houses GOP.

I agree that Cruz is the obviously better strategic bet between the two.  But the more I think about it, the senate situation isn't as obvious as it seems.  If Trump gets wiped out 58/40, then all is truly lost.  But think about where the vulnerable GOP seats are: WI/IL/NH/FL/PA/OH/NC.  If Trump does get some sense and shift to the center, he's likely to overperform in all of those states except Florida.  Cruz, on the other hand, is likely to lag behind Generic R in most of these places.  Someone like Ayotte or Toomey may legitimately be better off with Trump on the ballot than with Cruz.

Oh, and if senate Republicans actually hold a SCOTUS seat open for 5 years, they can be sure that the next Democratic government will just add seats to the court until they control it.

The problem with this (beyond the obvious that there's zero indication trump intends to or will ever shift to the center) is the amount of attention that trump's primary campaign has gotten. He's going to find it very difficult to pivot on anything because his core, extreme positions are very widely known (at his rallies, he asks his crowd questions about his positions and they reply in one voice because everyone knows what his positions are).

Cruz is a much cleaner slate in this sense. Even if, considering his personality, it's doubtful Cruz would pivot to the center either, if he tried it would work better for him than for trump because while people know "Cruz is an extremist who the establishment hates", few people outside of junkies like us could tell you why he's so extremist. But this is academic because Cruz doesn't do pivoting.
Logged
Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,999
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: March 31, 2016, 11:24:42 PM »

Florida would be the key battleground state and Iowa/Colorado too. Tell me how Kasich wins Florida and one of the Iowa/Colorado.

Uh.... so Kasich is less likely to win Florida, Iowa and Colorado than Trump? Stop trolling. FL is always a swing state, there's no reason to believe it would be solid D with Kasich.

No, I'm saying that Kasich has to win those states or he is toast. Trump has the option to win Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Logged
15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,669


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: March 31, 2016, 11:26:36 PM »


Common sense. Any decent non-Trump Republican would have won will win this election against Clinton. (not an idiot who believes in the solid 270 blue wall)
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: March 31, 2016, 11:31:15 PM »

Trump has the option to win Michigan and Pennsylvania.
False. In a Trump vs. Hillary election, best care scenario for Trump is that swing states are Missouri, Arizona, Indiana and Georgia. Everything that Obama won in 2012 is gone, plus North Carolina.
Logged
Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,999
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: March 31, 2016, 11:33:12 PM »

Trump has the option to win Michigan and Pennsylvania.
False. In a Trump vs. Hillary election, best care scenario for Trump is that swing states are Missouri, Arizona, Indiana and Georgia. Everything that Obama won in 2012 is gone, plus North Carolina.

Based on what? I mean, I know you don't like Trump, but it's not like he's gonna lose Kansas or Missouri. Let's be real.
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,625
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: March 31, 2016, 11:35:28 PM »

Trump has the option to win Michigan and Pennsylvania.
False. In a Trump vs. Hillary election, best care scenario for Trump is that swing states are Missouri, Arizona, Indiana and Georgia. Everything that Obama won in 2012 is gone, plus North Carolina.

Based on what? I mean, I know you don't like Trump, but it's not like he's gonna lose Kansas or Missouri. Let's be real.

trump is going to depress turnout in heavily-religious ancestrally-Republican southwest Missouri a great deal. It may not be enough for him to lose the state, but it would be very hotly contested between him and Hillary. (He'll have lost anyway and Hillary will just be trying to run up the score at that point, of course).
Logged
Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,999
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: March 31, 2016, 11:38:16 PM »

Trump has the option to win Michigan and Pennsylvania.
False. In a Trump vs. Hillary election, best care scenario for Trump is that swing states are Missouri, Arizona, Indiana and Georgia. Everything that Obama won in 2012 is gone, plus North Carolina.

Based on what? I mean, I know you don't like Trump, but it's not like he's gonna lose Kansas or Missouri. Let's be real.

trump is going to depress turnout in heavily-religious ancestrally-Republican southwest Missouri a great deal. It may not be enough for him to lose the state, but it would be very hotly contested between him and Hillary. (He'll have lost anyway and Hillary will just be trying to run up the score at that point, of course).

Of course. In your Trump-hating dream land.
Logged
MyRescueKittehRocks
JohanusCalvinusLibertas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,763
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: March 31, 2016, 11:45:49 PM »

Read up on 1968. Maybe even 1860. That's what this race is gonna most likely look like.
Logged
Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: March 31, 2016, 11:59:43 PM »

There's going to be around 150 unbound delegates on the first ballot, maybe a few more.  This depends mainly on the exact outcome in Colorado, and the treatment of some Rubio & Kasich delegates that are still up in the air. 

I doubt that Trump would win more than half of them, probably more like a third at best.  So if he's south of 1187 or so, this gets a lot harder for Trump. 

If Trump loses Wisconsin, Indiana, and Montana, and a third of California's CDs, he'd be on target to win around 1167 delegates and a nomination on the first ballot becomes very difficult for him.
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,625
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: April 01, 2016, 12:30:24 AM »

Trump has the option to win Michigan and Pennsylvania.
False. In a Trump vs. Hillary election, best care scenario for Trump is that swing states are Missouri, Arizona, Indiana and Georgia. Everything that Obama won in 2012 is gone, plus North Carolina.

Based on what? I mean, I know you don't like Trump, but it's not like he's gonna lose Kansas or Missouri. Let's be real.

trump is going to depress turnout in heavily-religious ancestrally-Republican southwest Missouri a great deal. It may not be enough for him to lose the state, but it would be very hotly contested between him and Hillary. (He'll have lost anyway and Hillary will just be trying to run up the score at that point, of course).

Of course. In your Trump-hating dream land.

Southwest Missouri isn't my trump-hating dream land, I've never even been there. It's the southwest Missourians' trump-hating dream land.
Logged
Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,030


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: April 01, 2016, 01:07:22 AM »
« Edited: April 01, 2016, 01:09:44 AM by Doctor Imperialism »

Whats the point?  Cruz will get crushed in tge general anyway under any of those senerios.    Trump will essentially campaign against the gop thus helping Hillary prob run some sort of 3rd party campaign .     Cruz will be served up as a sacrificial lamb. Funny thing is hes so stupid not to see it coming.

BTW Trump supporters are more likely to vote for Hillary than Cruzs small far right base.  The Gop is walking into a trap if Ted Cruz wins by some sort of convention trick.

They're f'ed if they nominate Trump, too.
Logged
RaphaelDLG
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,688
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: April 01, 2016, 01:16:09 AM »

The Republicans screwed up so massively this cycle.  Before things started, a mediocre, generic Republican (i.e., someone who isn't great but isn't radioactive like TRUMP, Cruz, Jeb!) would be like 60-65% favored against Hillary.  Now any of the possible candidates are big dog going into the GE.
Logged
Ogre Mage
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,500
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: April 01, 2016, 01:37:33 AM »

If Trump goes into the convention with say around 1150 delegates and Cruz with around 900 and they give the nomination to Cruz, wouldn't that cause anarchy and a meltdown at the convention?
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: April 01, 2016, 01:46:28 AM »

If Trump goes into the convention with say around 1150 delegates and Cruz with around 900 and they give the nomination to Cruz, wouldn't that cause anarchy and a meltdown at the convention?

Not if most of the delegates pledged to Trump are actually supporters of Cruz.  Tongue
Logged
Meclazine for Israel
Meclazine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,661
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: April 01, 2016, 03:19:29 AM »

There is no proof that either Cruz or Rubio would do better than Trump in the general election.

Cruz is an ideological candidate of the GOP conservative wing. If we look at the past results, we can only expect him to do extraordinarily bad in the general and to impact the downballot races somewhat. No guarantee the GOP will keep the Senate with Cruz, though the House should be safe.

Rubio is a lightweight, but he would probably be better than Cruz, again judging by past election results. The GOP might keep the Senate with him.

Trump is a wildcard. he loses a lot of votes in solid Republican states and in solid Democratic states. Some of the traditional swing states are out of reach for him. But he plays very well in a number of key swing states and in some traditionally Democratic states. He may expand the map for the GOP.

The thing is, with the map being the way it is, I can't imagine a GOP win with any of the candidates save Trump, for he alone can expand the map to states which normally would be considered safe or likely D (PA and MI).


It will be interesting to see if what you are proposing becomes reality.

Trump is like someone driving with one foot flat on the accelerator and one foot on the brake doing 100mph.

You just hope he does not his a tree, but he certainly feels a little off balance at times.
Logged
Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,127
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: April 01, 2016, 03:26:57 AM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

I've seen Numbers where Trump gets 77 percent of republicans and is -27 with independents. That would mean Trump would lose against a 100 percent non-democrat electorate.
Logged
Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,030


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: April 01, 2016, 04:09:37 AM »

Trump has the option to win Michigan and Pennsylvania.
False. In a Trump vs. Hillary election, best care scenario for Trump is that swing states are Missouri, Arizona, Indiana and Georgia. Everything that Obama won in 2012 is gone, plus North Carolina.

Based on what? I mean, I know you don't like Trump, but it's not like he's gonna lose Kansas or Missouri. Let's be real.

trump is going to depress turnout in heavily-religious ancestrally-Republican southwest Missouri a great deal. It may not be enough for him to lose the state, but it would be very hotly contested between him and Hillary. (He'll have lost anyway and Hillary will just be trying to run up the score at that point, of course).

Of course. In your Trump-hating dream land.

I'm aware that national polls are next to useless at this point, but RCP has Trump down 11 points against Clinton. That's obscene, and it reflects that fact that he's alienated massive amounts of voters. Especially Hispanics, which could very well become another African American-style solid Democratic bloc if Trump gets the nomination and continues sprouting off his insanity in their direction.
Logged
Slander and/or Libel
Figs
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,338


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -7.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: April 01, 2016, 08:58:28 AM »

Trump has the option to win Michigan and Pennsylvania.
False. In a Trump vs. Hillary election, best care scenario for Trump is that swing states are Missouri, Arizona, Indiana and Georgia. Everything that Obama won in 2012 is gone, plus North Carolina.

Based on what? I mean, I know you don't like Trump, but it's not like he's gonna lose Kansas or Missouri. Let's be real.

trump is going to depress turnout in heavily-religious ancestrally-Republican southwest Missouri a great deal. It may not be enough for him to lose the state, but it would be very hotly contested between him and Hillary. (He'll have lost anyway and Hillary will just be trying to run up the score at that point, of course).

Of course. In your Trump-hating dream land.

I'm aware that national polls are next to useless at this point, but RCP has Trump down 11 points against Clinton. That's obscene, and it reflects that fact that he's alienated massive amounts of voters. Especially Hispanics, which could very well become another African American-style solid Democratic bloc if Trump gets the nomination and continues sprouting off his insanity in their direction.

I would hazard that the very fact of Trump's candidacy will have done damage to the GOP nominee, whomever he is, among Hispanic voters. Do we really think that Cruz or even Kasich is going to look appealing to Hispanic voters when they're running under the banner of the party that almost nominated Trump?

I know demography isn't destiny, but I've been digging through the numbers, and I think people are understating what an uphill climb this election is going to be for Republicans. They seem to have largely maxed out the white vote in 2012 (it's difficult for me to see it going more than 60-40, though I could certainly be wrong), and if you held everything else the same and changed the demographics from 2012 to 2016, Romney would have lost by an extra point.

Republicans already get almost 90% of their votes from white voters. They've made the judgment that they can't pick up more votes than they'd lose by pivoting away from them, so they've got to either grow their share of the electorate (which was already outsize to begin with) or grow their support among them (which was at historic highs already in 2012).
Logged
JRoby
Rookie
**
Posts: 81


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: April 01, 2016, 09:10:57 AM »


3)  This seems easiest of all.  Cruz is wilier than Trump and will have Paul Ryan and the entire party behind him.  Trump delegates will cross over to Cruz, and it will be hard for Trump to find a platform during the hubbub of the convention to grab the attention he needs and have any sway.

So, that's how it will play out.  Trump will win some big states, but not enough, Cruz will grind him away, the first ballot will be a wash and the Rubio/Kasich delegates, plus some Trump delegates, will go over to Cruz and give him a majority on the second or third ballot of the convention.  It will be over in the blink of an eye.

you think the establishment really wants Cruz as the nominee? They're supporting him now because he's the only vehicle they can use to stop Trump from hitting 1237. Make no mistake, if there is no majority on the first ballot, there will be more candidates than Trump and Cruz and they will probably take it from both of them.

only chance is if Cruz somehow leads Trump in delegates prior to the first ballot and even then i doubt it.
Logged
Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
Runeghost
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,367


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: April 01, 2016, 09:50:50 AM »

Trump has the option to win Michigan and Pennsylvania.
False. In a Trump vs. Hillary election, best care scenario for Trump is that swing states are Missouri, Arizona, Indiana and Georgia. Everything that Obama won in 2012 is gone, plus North Carolina.

Based on what? I mean, I know you don't like Trump, but it's not like he's gonna lose Kansas or Missouri. Let's be real.

trump is going to depress turnout in heavily-religious ancestrally-Republican southwest Missouri a great deal. It may not be enough for him to lose the state, but it would be very hotly contested between him and Hillary. (He'll have lost anyway and Hillary will just be trying to run up the score at that point, of course).

Of course. In your Trump-hating dream land.

I'm aware that national polls are next to useless at this point, but RCP has Trump down 11 points against Clinton. That's obscene, and it reflects that fact that he's alienated massive amounts of voters. Especially Hispanics, which could very well become another African American-style solid Democratic bloc if Trump gets the nomination and continues sprouting off his insanity in their direction.

Worse than that, he's alienated women. I don't think he makes up that ground, and I don't think he can possibly win with the level of active disgust he has among half the population (which, in turn, is slighty more than half of the voters).
Logged
Ronnie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,993
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: April 01, 2016, 02:53:24 PM »


3)  This seems easiest of all.  Cruz is wilier than Trump and will have Paul Ryan and the entire party behind him.  Trump delegates will cross over to Cruz, and it will be hard for Trump to find a platform during the hubbub of the convention to grab the attention he needs and have any sway.

So, that's how it will play out.  Trump will win some big states, but not enough, Cruz will grind him away, the first ballot will be a wash and the Rubio/Kasich delegates, plus some Trump delegates, will go over to Cruz and give him a majority on the second or third ballot of the convention.  It will be over in the blink of an eye.

you think the establishment really wants Cruz as the nominee? They're supporting him now because he's the only vehicle they can use to stop Trump from hitting 1237. Make no mistake, if there is no majority on the first ballot, there will be more candidates than Trump and Cruz and they will probably take it from both of them.

only chance is if Cruz somehow leads Trump in delegates prior to the first ballot and even then i doubt it.

I don't think it's inevitable that Rule 40(b) will be repealed, considering Cruz and Trump loyalists will have most of the discretion on the rules.  And in any case, I don't see Cruz and Trump delegates on the floor ever capitulating to Kasich or a "white knight".
Logged
Lyin' Steve
SteveMcQueen
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,310


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: April 05, 2016, 11:16:19 PM »

Still right.
Logged
SillyAmerican
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,052
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: April 06, 2016, 02:56:13 PM »

You think the establishment really wants Cruz as the nominee? They're supporting him now because he's the only vehicle they can use to stop Trump from hitting 1237. Make no mistake, if there is no majority on the first ballot, there will be more candidates than Trump and Cruz and they will probably take it from both of them.

Only chance is if Cruz somehow leads Trump in delegates prior to the first ballot and even then I doubt it.

I gotta agree with JRoby. The only reason Cruz is getting support is that he's the anti-Trump. If he somehow comes away with the nomination, the GOP goes down in flames in November.
Logged
Meclazine for Israel
Meclazine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,661
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: April 06, 2016, 03:19:49 PM »

Cruz is on the charge.

Only another 2 or 3 stupid comments from Trump about women and he may snatch this.
Logged
Cruzcrew
Paleocon
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 568
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: April 06, 2016, 05:49:18 PM »

Steve wasn't lying
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.072 seconds with 14 queries.