New York counties on 4/19

[Progressive]

On both sides, who wins where? Idk how to do a county map but if anyone wants to I'd love to see your take or if not, just list it out the way I am.

DEMOCRATS
Hillary
All five boroughs
Nassau County
Suffolk County (by a small margin)
Westchester County
Rockland County
Putnam County
Dutchess County
Erie County
Rochester area

Bernie
Much of upstate (like Zephyr Teachout did) and
MAYBE Suffolk County

REPUBLICANS

Trump
Everywhere except for a few exceptions listed below

Cruz
A couple of counties near the border of Canada (EX: Hamilton County) that tend to be more conservative

Kasich
New York County (Manhattan) I could see going to Kasich

[Mehmentum]

Sanders will win Clinton County in yet another state.

[Averroës Nix]

Cruz
A couple of counties near the border of Canada (EX: Hamilton County) that tend to be more conservative.

I hope that this is a joke. (Although Hamilton County is weird; then again, it contains barely 5,000 residents and is the only county located entirely within the Adirondack Park.)

Cruz's best part of the state should be rural western NY, i.e. places like Wyoming and Allegheny counties. Expect Kasich to run well in the most affluent Rochester and Buffalo suburbs, the Albany area, and the Mid-Hudson. He may also do well in the ancestrally very heavily Republican parts of Northern New York, esp. near Vermont.

My early prediction for Trump is that he'll run very strong in the less affluent portions of the Buffalo and Rochester metro areas. His best county in upstate NY might be Jefferson (home of Fort Drum and one of the highest concentration of veterans in the Northeast).

[Seriously?]

REPUBLICANS

Trump
Everywhere except for a few exceptions listed below

Cruz
A couple of counties near the border of Canada (EX: Hamilton County) that tend to be more conservative

Kasich
New York County (Manhattan) I could see going to Kasich

I have a hard time thinking that anyone other than Trump has a chance in New York County (Manhattan). It's the core of Donald's business. One would assume that he has a good number of employees in that county and there are not a lot of registered Republicans.

I also think on the Hillary! side, Sanders will run better in Putnam/Dutchess/Suffolk, where Republicans have a fighting chance in most elections.

Rockland and Orange will, as always, depend on the Hasidic Jew block vote. While Hillary doesn't have pardons to give out this time, you'd think it would be advantage Hillary.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Does anyone think Kasich might have a chance of winning Nassau or Suffolk? They both seem to have a lot of those awful "fiscally conservative but socially liberal" Republicans who would support a candidate like him, plus also they seem to have a fair number of Jewish Republicans who'd be turned off by Trump supporters doing Nazi salutes at his rallies (I suspect the Israel-Firsters will support Cruz, but the Super-Rich might vote Kasich).

[Seriously?]

Does anyone think Kasich might have a chance of winning Nassau or Suffolk? They both seem to have a lot of those awful "fiscally conservative but socially liberal" Republicans who would support a candidate like him, plus also they seem to have a fair number of Jewish Republicans who'd be turned off by Trump supporters doing Nazi salutes at his rallies (I suspect the Israel-Firsters will support Cruz, but the Super-Rich might vote Kasich).

Trump is well entrenched here in NY. If there's one CD on LI that Kasich may have a chance in it would probably be CD 3 or 4 on the North Shore/South Shore of Nassau respectively.

But honestly, Trump should romp. The only question is whether he clears 50% in each CD/Statewide.

[Boston Bread]

Kasich could win Putnam. Isn't it one of the wealthiest counties?

[Averroës Nix]

Does anyone think Kasich might have a chance of winning Nassau or Suffolk? They both seem to have a lot of those awful "fiscally conservative but socially liberal" Republicans who would support a candidate like him, plus also they seem to have a fair number of Jewish Republicans who'd be turned off by Trump supporters doing Nazi salutes at his rallies (I suspect the Israel-Firsters will support Cruz, but the Super-Rich might vote Kasich).

I think he's more likely to win Monroe (Rochester), if he wins any large population counties. Buffalo would also be in play if Paladino weren't putting out hits on any local Republican who doesn't support Trump. But Northeastern NY should be his best territory: Clinton and Essex counties especially. The Capitol and Mid-Hudson regions should be relatively strong for him as well.