Does Trump have a chance in NV and/or NM?
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  Does Trump have a chance in NV and/or NM?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Does he?
#1
Yes, in both		  
#2
NV but not NM		  
#3
NM but not NV		  
#4
No, he has no chance in either		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 47

Author Topic: Does Trump have a chance in NV and/or NM?  (Read 568 times)
Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« on: April 01, 2016, 10:22:23 PM »
People assume Hillary will win both NV and NM. But even with Latinos voting heavily against Trump, could his racism not drive up GOP numbers with whites? AZ whites swung heavily against Obama in 2012.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #1 on: April 01, 2016, 10:25:46 PM »
Maybe a 25% chance in NV. I voted no overall.
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Oak Hills
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« Reply #2 on: April 01, 2016, 10:32:21 PM »
Quote from: ShadowOfTheWave on April 01, 2016, 10:22:23 PM
People assume Hillary will win both NV and NM. But even with Latinos voting heavily against Trump, could his racism not drive up GOP numbers with whites? AZ whites swung heavily against Obama in 2012.

It could, but likely not enough to overcome his disadvantage with Latinos.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: April 01, 2016, 10:40:09 PM »
No, NM is gone for Republicans, and NV is soon to follow. Trump certainly has no chance in either.
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dax00
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« Reply #4 on: April 01, 2016, 10:42:58 PM »
Nevada - yes, about 40% chance
New Mexico - no

If the Mormons mobilize for Trump, because Hillary is a much worse option, Trump will have a great chance. The Mormon contingency here in Nevada, can, when motivated, crank out 85-95% voter turnout. Also, a lot of people here overestimate Latinos's hatred of Trump.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #5 on: April 01, 2016, 11:00:08 PM »
If you remember this scene,



it's basically that.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #6 on: April 01, 2016, 11:11:53 PM »
New Mexico no
Nevada possibly.Nevada was hit  hard by the housing crisis and resection, this probably plays in Trumps favour. However Trumps problem is the large minority of Hispanics and Mormans that are typically a group that significantly   opposes Trump. I would expect a close race in Nevada probably 52-48 Clinton
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #7 on: April 01, 2016, 11:20:09 PM »
Quote from: dax00 on April 01, 2016, 10:42:58 PM
Nevada - yes, about 40% chance
New Mexico - no

If the Mormons mobilize for Trump, because Hillary is a much worse option, Trump will have a great chance. The Mormon contingency here in Nevada, can, when motivated, crank out 85-95% voter turnout. Also, a lot of people here overestimate Latinos's hatred of Trump.

Yeah, sure, he's only viewed unfavorably by 85% of them.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #8 on: April 01, 2016, 11:41:51 PM »
I think both of those states are off the table due to sizable Hispanic populations.
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Zache
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« Reply #9 on: April 01, 2016, 11:48:04 PM »
« Edited: April 01, 2016, 11:53:03 PM by Zache »
Quote from: dax00 on April 01, 2016, 10:42:58 PM
Nevada - yes, about 40% chance
New Mexico - no

If the Mormons mobilize for Trump, because Hillary is a much worse option, Trump will have a great chance. The Mormon contingency here in Nevada, can, when motivated, crank out 85-95% voter turnout. Also, a lot of people here overestimate Latinos's hatred of Trump.

How motivated were they in 2012, with an actual Mormon candidate and not a man they absolutely despise?

I had originally voted that Trump had a chance in NV but after reading dax00's post and thinking about it ...nah. Trump has no chance in either.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: April 02, 2016, 02:17:20 AM »
He and Joe Heck did before the GOP blockade, he has no chance now.
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Ljube
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« Reply #11 on: April 02, 2016, 03:21:44 AM »
I voted yes in both, but really mean that Trump has a realistic chance in Nevada (say about 40%) and a slim but not very realistic chance in New Mexico.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #12 on: April 02, 2016, 04:34:56 AM »
not on his own strength/only if clinton collapses
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President Johnson
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« Reply #13 on: April 02, 2016, 06:47:29 AM »
New Mexico likely not. But Nevada is possible.
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