Project Trump's RNC Delegate Total

[Јas]

As of today, what is your projection for Trump's delegate total?

[Mr. Morden]

So you mean the number of delegates who actually vote for him on the first ballot, which would include both the pledged delegates he wins in the primaries, and the unpledged delegates who decide to back him on the first ballot?

[Јas]

So you mean the number of delegates who actually vote for him on the first ballot, which would include both the pledged delegates he wins in the primaries, and the unpledged delegates who decide to back him on the first ballot?

Yes.

[Mr. Morden]

Another way of asking it is: What will be the vote on the first ballot?  Out of the 2472 delegates, how many will actually end up voting for Trump, how many for Cruz, how many for Kasich, Rubio, etc. on the first ballot?

I don't know the answer.  I'll probably let a few other people take a stab at it first before I come to a conclusion. 

[President Johnson]

Around 1,250

[Admiral Kizaru]

Given recent developments, around the low 1,100's.

Cruz will get the nomination on the third or fourth ballot.

[President Johnson]

Given recent developments, around the low 1,100's.

Cruz will get the nomination on the third or fourth ballot.

If the establishment has any chance to deny TRUMP the nomination, they won't pick Cruz. For them, he's just the lesser of two evils. They will try to nominate Ryan or Mitt.

[/]

Probably a bit more than one hundred behind where he needs to be.

[Torie]

If Kasich's and Rubio's delegates hold the balance of power, why would they not just refuse to vote for either Cruz or Trump forever? If that is the case, then either Cruz and Trump make a deal (hard to see that at this point), or at some point, somebody else gets nominated. If I were a Kasich delegate that is what I would do. Stonewall, and then stonewall some more. Cruz would tank the party - not as much perhaps as Trump, and perhaps not as damaging long term for the party, but it would still be an electoral disaster for the Pubs. Beyond his hardline policy positions, Cruz is one of the least likable candidates ever to run for POTUS. His charm factor is non existent.

[Penelope]

Atlas has a tendency to overreact to news cycles and different short-term political trends, so I'll guess Trump is either going to be either just below or just above 1237. I remember back when everyone was saying Cruz was done just a few months ago. So, I'll wait to buy into the latest "Trump is done, for sure, definitely this time" hype.

[Mr. Morden]

Atlas has a tendency to overreact to news cycles and different short-term political trends, so I'll guess Trump is either going to be either just below or just above 1237. I remember back when everyone was saying Cruz was done just a few months ago. So, I'll wait to buy into the latest "Trump is done, for sure, definitely this time" hype.

Yeah, I'll put the over/under on Trump on the first ballot somewhere north of 1237.  I don't think he'll get 1237 pledged delegates, but he'll come close enough that he can pick up enough unpledged delegates to beat 1237 on the first ballot (whether we'll know that going into the convention....I don't know).

However, Trump getting under 1237 on the first ballot is certainly a *possibility*.  And if that happens, then he's most likely done, as he seems to be getting absolutely murdered by Cruz in the delegate loyalty contest.  Too many Trump delegates are going to turn out to be "ninja" Cruz supporters.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

If Kasich's and Rubio's delegates hold the balance of power, why would they not just refuse to vote for either Cruz or Trump forever? If that is the case, then either Cruz and Trump make a deal (hard to see that at this point), or at some point, somebody else gets nominated. If I were a Kasich delegate that is what I would do. Stonewall, and then stonewall some more. Cruz would tank the party - not as much perhaps as Trump, and perhaps not as damaging long term for the party, but it would still be an electoral disaster for the Pubs. Beyond his hardline policy positions, Cruz is one of the least likable candidates ever to run for POTUS. His charm factor is non existent.

The delegates start becoming unbound after the first vote. Many of the delegates will not actually favor the candidates they are (more ore less) required to vote for on the first vote.

[Phony Moderate]

Is anyone else having difficulty seeing Cruz emerge as the 'stop TRUMP' candidate at the convention? I really think that his only path to the nomination is to overperform in the rest of the primary season and end up close to TRUMP in both delegates and popular vote.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Some Cruz and Kasich/Rubio delegates may also be Pro-Trump for all we know, an open convention will be interesting to see how many delegates are actually loyal to their bound candidate.

[Torie]

If Kasich's and Rubio's delegates hold the balance of power, why would they not just refuse to vote for either Cruz or Trump forever? If that is the case, then either Cruz and Trump make a deal (hard to see that at this point), or at some point, somebody else gets nominated. If I were a Kasich delegate that is what I would do. Stonewall, and then stonewall some more. Cruz would tank the party - not as much perhaps as Trump, and perhaps not as damaging long term for the party, but it would still be an electoral disaster for the Pubs. Beyond his hardline policy positions, Cruz is one of the least likable candidates ever to run for POTUS. His charm factor is non existent.

The delegates start becoming unbound after the first vote. Many of the delegates will not actually favor the candidates they are (more ore less) required to vote for on the first vote.

Sure, and how many Rubio or Kasich delegates will flip to Cruz, rather than just wait it out?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

1,050 to 1,075

[Why]

1150 -1300 seems to be about where he will end up although with the upper end of the range more likely. Whether the unpledged delegates can bridge the gap from 1150 I do not know.

[Thomas D]

1212

[Meclazine for Israel]

1143.

But he will still gwt the nod.

[Mr. Morden]

1143.

But he will still gwt the nod.

How will that happen if he's only at 1143 on the first ballot, given that many of the delegates pledged to him on the first ballot apparently don't actually like him, and will flee from him on the second ballot?

See:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/trumps-uphill-delegate-scramble-221443

and:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/

[Holmes]

In terms of pledged, I'm thinking around 1,150. I think there are enough unpledged delegates that can give it to him on the first ballot, but if it ends up going to Cruz, I'm looking forward to seeing how the Republican party would spin giving the nomination to someone who came in second place, millions of votes and hundred of delegates behind the first place winner.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

1125-1150

[Averroës Nix]

~1100

[ProudModerate2]

Recently, trump's numbers seem to be slipping slightly.
I think he will fall just short of the delegates he needs (let's hope).
It should make for an interesting convention.

[IceSpear]

Atlas has a tendency to overreact to news cycles and different short-term political trends, so I'll guess Trump is either going to be either just below or just above 1237. I remember back when everyone was saying Cruz was done just a few months ago. So, I'll wait to buy into the latest "Trump is done, for sure, definitely this time" hype.

I was one of the people saying Cruz was done a month or so ago. But that was because it was clear at that point he had no path to a majority of delegates and practically no path to a plurality either. I didn't think the party would actually go as far as a brokered convention to take the nomination from Trump. The thought of a brokered convention mostly seemed silly and implausible before, now it seems to be the most likely scenario. How quickly things change.