Armenia/Azerbaijan

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I'm not sure which regime is less bad, and the Azeris (if memory serves) have somewhat less objectionable allies, but the Armenian claim is probably superior by most measures, and the Azeris appear to be the aggressor. Of course, I could be misunderstanding something; I'm not hugely familiar with this dispute.

[ingemann]

The original war in the early 90ties was complex and rather gray (several hundred thousands Azeri and Armenians was ethnic cleansed by each sides), through I personally think that the "good guys" (Armenians) won. But anyone supporting the Azerbeijan reconquest of Nagorno-Karabakh is supporting the ethnic cleansing of 150 000 people from the area at best and the genocide of them at worst. The start of the Azeri-Armenian conflict in the 80ties started with quite vicious pogroms of the Armenians who dwelled in eastern Azerbaijan because the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh pushed for increased autonomy.

So no this is not a very complex conflict by now, this is the question about whether people are willing to support a tin pot dictatorship wanting to commit horrible war crimes against civilians from another ethnic and religious group.

[ag]

Yep, there is one major obvious difference between the Armenia/Azerbaijan and Russia/Ukraine troubles: any change of the line of control between Armenians and Azeris would mean ethnic cleansing - either through forced expulsion of the current population, or through outright genocide (or both).  In these circumstances it is not the matter of good guys/bad guys (there aren't any), but of minimizing human suffering. Fortunately, there is some room for non-genocidal compromise. Back in the early 1990s Armenians captured a lot more land than they had any claim to - for the pretty much explicit purpose of trading it in exchange for a permanent recognition of their control of the land they actually claimed. They still hold much of that land - which is, effectively, devoid of human population. The most famous example of this is the former town of Agdam - a once thriving majorish city (by the local standards), which has been dead all these years. Hopefully, it would  be possible to arrange some sort of a settlement in which Azeris would get a sufficiently large territorial recovery to be able to declare a victory, while allowing Armenia/Armenians to keep at least the most densely populated parts of the region permanently. Anything else would lead to a humanitarian catastrophe.  And maintenance of the status quo is, by itself, poisonous, as it is largely responsible for the establishment and survival of the ugly regimes on both sides.

[ag]

Crucially, it is not wise to insist on figuring out who is or is not in the right here. Back in the early 1990s many of us (myself included) were squarely on the Armenian side - for both the right and wrong reasons.  I have to confess that over the years I reevaluated my own stance. Neither side was "in the right" here - and both deserve compassion. The Baku and Sumqayit pogroms against the local Armenians are a terrible blot on Azeri nationhood, and they should never be forgotten, but that is a separate issue. The objective here should not be revenge, but prevention of suffering.

[ag]

Oil prices are one of reasons for this escalation. Azerbaijani regime needs to get people on their side during times of economic crisis. Then they need to go to war to recover some support.

Azerbaijan has been preparing for this all these years, of course. The dream of return is what justifies the regime to a large part. Azeris are, of course, much richer, due to oil, and they have been able to build up a serious military. That, of course, is what has pushed Armenia into Russian arms: they do not have much of a choice.

Eventually, Azeris will try the reconquest - there is almost no doubt of that. Remember: there are many thousands refugees all over the country, who will not let any Azeri regime to forget. Alievs have forged much of their legitimacy on the issue (the war was effectively lost before they came back to power). Some solution must be found that would allow Armenians to retain control over most important population centers but that would give enough to Azeris to declare a victory and to announce the issue resolved.  Otherwise, eventually, the local Armenian population will be slaughtered - long term, Armenia is no match for Azerbaijan either economically or militarily, and Russia is unlikely to be around forever.