538 Tool/ Game: Can you get Trump to 1,237?

[SteveRogers]

Pretty nifty for visualizing why this thing is headed into brokered convention territory.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/can-you-get-trump-to-1237/

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Played around with that, it's still easy for Trump to reach 1,237 though

[Vosem]

Even if you give him wins in all the Mid-Atlantic states and Indiana, _trump still needs a blowout win in California to get over the hump.

It's doable, but I would bet against it.

[Gass3268]

It's really going to come down how he does in California and New York.

[PeteB]

If he wins over 50% in NY and has a decent showing in CA, he will come within striking distance (1,200 or so).  But I do not think all that will happen.

[/]

Fun.

[Kleine Scheiße]

Very easily doable. I think he'll just barely clinch it. Like, we're talking within 20 delegates.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If you take the expert averages (which assume a Wisconsin TRUMP win), then up TRUMP to 95/95 in NY and 105/172 in CA, he gets there.

This really shows how crucial WI is. Cruz cannot afford to lose.

[Gass3268]

It's challenging but doable.  Assuming only 1 or 2 CDs worth of delegates from Wisconsin, he needs to:

1. Overperform in NY and finish well into the 80's with its pledged delegates.

2. Sweep the rest of the NE, including Maryland (he can afford to lose the 2 CDs closest to DC to Kasich, but no more).

3. Win Montana or romp Arizona/Nevada style in California.

Right now, the first two look more likely than not.  It's the 3rd part that could sink him.  Also, if he wins decisively in PA, he should be able to get 20ish of their unpledged CD delegates to come around in the event he's short of a majority.

The areas he did the best in Idaho and the Wyoming convention suggests that Trump could win Montana.

[swf541]

Doesnt seem that hard to get Trump on the first ballot assuming Kasich/ Rubio delegates are unbound due to that rule that Cruz and Trump seem intent on keeping, wouldnt that increase the unbound delegate total alot while Cruz would win most I have doubts he would win all of them?

[Wisconsin+17]

Trump on the first ballot - needs to win 100 percent of NY, CA, CT, DE, MD, PA, RI, OR, WA, NJ.

Still doable, although his firewall is down to 23.

WI at this point is not very relevant to Trump. Trump can still get there with zero in WI.

First do or die state for Trump will be NY. I have him projected at 100 percent of NY's delegates.

If he gets zero in Wisconsin and fewer than 70 delegates in NY, Trump will officially be in trouble.

[Erc]

Everyone keeps talking about New York, but really Trump already has 70 delegates locked down there, so the play is for the remaining 25, at best.

Montana is far more important to this race than New York.

(Feel free to mock me mercilessly in 15 days if Trump falls below 70 delegates in New York).

[The Mikado]

One thing the game here underplays is that a lot of those "uncommitted" delegates are the Pennsylvania delegates, and if Trump puts in even a little effort he should get a fair number of those (~20 out of 54 PA uncommitted delegates strikes me as reasonable...start out assuming ~30 and give Trump a 10 delegate organizational penalty).

[Erc]

One thing the game here underplays is that a lot of those "uncommitted" delegates are the Pennsylvania delegates, and if Trump puts in even a little effort he should get a fair number of those (~20 out of 54 PA uncommitted delegates strikes me as reasonable...start out assuming ~30 and give Trump a 10 delegate organizational penalty).

I guess the point is that if he doesn't get to 1237 in pledged delegate the race goes past June 6, though it'll likely be a done deal if he's within 20 or so.  

Pennsylvania is probably a crapshoot, but it's one in which Trump is disfavored for a variety of reasons.  First of all, who's running for delegate?  I'd expect 4 main camps: Generic Republicans who just want a ticket to Cleveland; Bush/Rubio/Other supporters; Cruz Supporters; Trump Supporters.  Only one of those camps supports Trump, and it's likely to be less than a quarter of the delegates on the ballot.  That, combined with the organizational problems of getting people to vote for your desired delegates (plus Cruz's better organization in general) leads me to believe that Trump probably won't pick up more than a handful of unbound delegates in PA even if he wins the state.

Here's my current working projection for the remaining contests, for the record.  (This leaves out the uncommitteds, of which Trump will certainly get some).

[Xing]

I have him getting to 1200 fairly easily. Getting those extra 37 are harder, but if he only needs that many uncommitted delegates, he could win on the first vote.

[Holmes]

If you take the expert averages (which assume a Wisconsin TRUMP win), then up TRUMP to 95/95 in NY and 105/172 in CA, he gets there.

This really shows how crucial WI is. Cruz cannot afford to lose.

If Trump loses Wisconsin, he can still get to 1,237 by winning Indiana, which I think will be easier for him than Wisconsin. Especially since it'll be a week after big wins on the 26th in PA, CT, DE and RI, which will be a week after a big win in NY, and if we believe momentum to be a thing, it should help Trump.

Here's my guess, assuming he wins Indiana.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Being a little conservative... I get him to 28 delegates short.

[Wisconsin+17]

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MT, no. NM is another possibility. Certainly not out of reach for another 20 delegates for Trump. Trump is really not in that bad shape at the moment.

[Erc]

Are travel expenses for delegates paid by the party or something?

Sorry, was speaking figuratively.  "Their ticket punched to Cleveland," perhaps.  This does mean that the delegates from the Northern Marianas have to pay their own airfare, for example.

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MT, no. NM is another possibility. Certainly not out of reach for another 20 delegates for Trump. Trump is really not in that bad shape at the moment.

New Mexico is proportional, so it doesn't matter much delegate-wise, except on the margins.

[TomC]

I think he'll be 50 short.

Is that 125 unpledged only for the states left or is that a national total? Seems like there should be more.

[Erc]

I think he'll be 50 short.

Is that 125 unpledged only for the states left or is that a national total? Seems like there should be more.

It's about right for a national total if you don't release any of Rubio's delegates.  This is, of course, incorrect, but it's close enough.

[TomC]

I think he'll be 50 short.

Is that 125 unpledged only for the states left or is that a national total? Seems like there should be more.

It's about right for a national total if you don't release any of Rubio's delegates.  This is, of course, incorrect, but it's close enough.

I don't think he'll get from his pledged to 1237 on these uncommitteds.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

One thing the game here underplays is that a lot of those "uncommitted" delegates are the Pennsylvania delegates, and if Trump puts in even a little effort he should get a fair number of those (~20 out of 54 PA uncommitted delegates strikes me as reasonable...start out assuming ~30 and give Trump a 10 delegate organizational penalty).

I guess the point is that if he doesn't get to 1237 in pledged delegate the race goes past June 6, though it'll likely be a done deal if he's within 20 or so.  

Pennsylvania is probably a crapshoot, but it's one in which Trump is disfavored for a variety of reasons.  First of all, who's running for delegate?  I'd expect 4 main camps: Generic Republicans who just want a ticket to Cleveland; Bush/Rubio/Other supporters; Cruz Supporters; Trump Supporters.  Only one of those camps supports Trump, and it's likely to be less than a quarter of the delegates on the ballot.  That, combined with the organizational problems of getting people to vote for your desired delegates (plus Cruz's better organization in general) leads me to believe that Trump probably won't pick up more than a handful of unbound delegates in PA even if he wins the state.

Here's my current working projection for the remaining contests, for the record.  (This leaves out the uncommitteds, of which Trump will certainly get some).

Don't forget to handicap Trump a bit because some of his supporters running for delegate will probably have foreign last names, meaning Trump's supporters won't vote for them.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Proportional is good because Trump gets some delegates.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Trump on the first ballot - needs to win 100 percent of NY, CA, CT, DE, MD, PA, RI, OR, WA, NJ.

Still doable, although his firewall is down to 23.

WI at this point is not very relevant to Trump. Trump can still get there with zero in WI.

First do or die state for Trump will be NY. I have him projected at 100 percent of NY's delegates.

If he gets zero in Wisconsin and fewer than 70 delegates in NY, Trump will officially be in trouble.

The proper spelling here is "freiwal"