Can Any Republican Win Like President Obama?

[Young Conservative]

President Obama won in 2008 by 7.1 points. If a Republican were to win by the same margin, the map looks like this:

Republican: 395
Democrat: 120
Tossup(Both +8 Democrat states): 23

This is a blowout unseen for decades. So, who can:
1. Galvanize the Base
2. Run a well organized and effective grassroots campaign
3. Debate and speak well
4. Be inspiring
5. Run against a bland and disliked moderate who cant win over people or galvanize the base (sound like a certain Democratic front runner?)
 To me, the only candidate that could potentially meet all of these ideas is Ted Cruz Versus Hillary Clinton . I am not saying this could be replicated given elasticity of each individual state not being factored in, but it is an intriguing thought that this could be the map about as easily as 2008 occurring, which was a pretty remarkable election. Could that be repeated in 2016? Even if the northern states aren't won, could Ted Cruz win over the midwest finally? Or could John Kasich do it by winning over enough moderate voters?

[Young Conservative]

lol

Im not saying it would happen,but in theory it is possible.

[Xing]

No, it's not possible for the present Republican Party to win WA, OR, NM, IL, NJ, CT, or ME. Even MN, MI, WI, and NV are probably out of reach for Republicans this year.

[IceSpear]

HAHAHA

Maybe this could be the map if it was Sandoval vs. Kucinich.

[Virginiá]

lol

Im not saying it would happen,but in theory it is possible.

How exactly did you get that map? Did you just subtract 7 points from the Democratic margins of 2004, or something? If so, that's not really how things would actually play out on election day.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Here's a Kasich v Clinton map though

[Mister Mets]

The main thing that was forgotten in the initial post is the political environment of 2008.

If it wasn't for the stock market crash, McCain could easily have eked out a narrow win.

There are other circumstances in which a candidate can win by 7 points, but it wasn't Obama's strengths that was responsible.

[Young Conservative]

lol

Im not saying it would happen,but in theory it is possible.

How exactly did you get that map? Did you just subtract 7 points from the Democratic margins of 2004, or something? If so, that's not really how things would actually play out on election day.

Yep. I didn't factor in elasticity as I stated in my explanation.

[madelka]

What is this nonsense?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

MN, MI, WI, and NV are probably out of reach for Republicans this year.

Everyone was probably saying the same thing about Indiana and North Carolina around this time in 2008. And look what happened.

[Virginiá]

MN, MI, WI, and NV are probably out of reach for Republicans this year.

Everyone was probably saying the same thing about Indiana and North Carolina around this time in 2008. And look what happened.

Indiana had special circumstances (bad economy) at the time, and North Carolina's ongoing demographic and population changes had made it friendlier to Democrats - That is, if they were able to increase minority turnout and maintain/increase youth support, which Obama was able to do.

As far as I know, none of those states mentioned have any comparable pro-Repbulican trends. Nevada in fact has a clear pro-Democratic shift going on due to the growing power of minority voters there.

[Young Conservative]

MN, MI, WI, and NV are probably out of reach for Republicans this year.

Everyone was probably saying the same thing about Indiana and North Carolina around this time in 2008. And look what happened.

Indiana had special circumstances (bad economy) at the time, and North Carolina's ongoing demographic and population changes had made it friendlier to Democrats - That is, if they were able to increase minority turnout and maintain/increase youth support, which Obama was able to do.

As far as I know, none of those states mentioned have any comparable pro-Repbulican trends. Nevada in fact has a clear pro-Democratic shift going on due to the growing power of minority voters there.

Actually, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Ohio have some pretty serious republican trends going on. The other states are increasingly competitive, but I wouldn't say Republican.

[Virginiá]

Actually, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Ohio have some pretty serious republican trends going on. The other states are increasingly competitive, but I wouldn't say Republican.

Oh I meant the ones in xingkerui's quote, presumably the ones Wulfric was referencing with his comment - MN, MI, WI and NV.

Is there anything written on about PA's shift? I haven't seen anything on that.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

lol

Im not saying it would happen,but in theory it is possible.

Certainly not with Cruz or Trump. And Republicans wouldn't win NJ, NM, WA and NH, even if they nominated Abraham Lincoln.  

Reagan did it Twice.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Maybe if they nominate SupeJesus/Lincoln they may have a 50/50 change

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

lol

Im not saying it would happen,but in theory it is possible.

Certainly not with Cruz or Trump. And Republicans wouldn't win NJ, NM, WA and NH, even if they nominated Abraham Lincoln.  

Reagan did it Twice.

Uh... yes? But those states have trended strongly Democratic since then. Alf Landon won Vermont and Michael Dukakis won West Virginia, does that mean those states will be competitive this year?

Cruz is almost as good a communicator as Reagan and with an even more brilliant legal mind.  If Cruz would take ideas of communication style from Reagan and JFK, he would pull Reagan 1984.

[Vosem]

Assuming universal swing in 2012 to a Republican victory of the same margin as Obama's 2008 victory, it does not come out looking as impressive as your map.

I don't know what you used grey to indicate on your map, but the only states with margins within 1 point are NM and OR. Republicans would win 353-185. Even at the margin you describe, Republicans would not win Washington or any New England states besides NH. (Illinois is still voting Democratic by 6 points, though perhaps without Obama as the opponent at this scale of victory it would be approachable).

[Liberalrocks]

lol

Im not saying it would happen,but in theory it is possible.

Certainly not with Cruz or Trump. And Republicans wouldn't win NJ, NM, WA and NH, even if they nominated Abraham Lincoln.  

Reagan did it Twice.

Uh... yes? But those states have trended strongly Democratic since then. Alf Landon won Vermont and Michael Dukakis won West Virginia, does that mean those states will be competitive this year?

Cruz is almost as good a communicator as Reagan and with an even more brilliant legal mind.  If Cruz would take ideas of communication style from Reagan and JFK, he would pull Reagan 1984.

Lol I just spit up my drink !

[Xing]

lol

Im not saying it would happen,but in theory it is possible.

Certainly not with Cruz or Trump. And Republicans wouldn't win NJ, NM, WA and NH, even if they nominated Abraham Lincoln.  

Reagan did it Twice.

Uh... yes? But those states have trended strongly Democratic since then. Alf Landon won Vermont and Michael Dukakis won West Virginia, does that mean those states will be competitive this year?

Cruz is almost as good a communicator as Reagan and with an even more brilliant legal mind.  If Cruz would take ideas of communication style from Reagan and JFK, he would pull Reagan 1984.

Reagan and JFK were also adored by the American population. Cruz is not. No way Cruz can win any states Obama won comfortably. He'd have a shot of some of the closer Obama states, but would be just as likely to lose a Romney state or two.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, but Kasich would because of the 252 electors, including Pa, Gore & Kerry won. But, Kasich would beat Clinton like Bush W did to Kerry or if Sanders somehow got nomination, he probably loses to Cruz.

[ProudModerate2]

Absolutely none of the R candidates this year (even ones that have withdrawn) would win like the map shown in post #1 (that is a landslide).

The only candidate that may have at least a 50-50 chance is Kasich.

[standwrand]

Mitt Romney could

[100% pro-life no matter what]

That map is for a 16-point PV vote win.

D+8 means 58-42 (50+8), not D by 8 points (that would be D+4).

[Fuzzy Bear]

lol

Im not saying it would happen,but in theory it is possible.

In theory, Bernie Sanders could win a 50-state majority plus DC.

In practice, Ted Cruz and his Evangelical-friendly style is a perpetual turnoff to the moderate Republicans in New England and the Middle Atlantic states, and on the Pacific Coast, as well as to the unionized Midwestern voters in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan.  The backlash against religious conservatives began in 1992 in response to Pat Buchanan's speech about Culture Wars.  New England and California had been rebelling against the GOP on these issues for a while, but it broke loose in 1992, and today, these states are a Democratic as the South is Republican.

[Angel of Death]

That map is for a 16-point PV vote win.

D+8 means 58-42 (50+8), not D by 8 points (that would be D+4).

Where did you get that idea? Nobody else means it that way.