Republicans gain back New England?

[smoltchanov]

Only if Republicans will become much more moderate on social issues. Fiscal conservatism (reasonable) is quite acceptable there, social - very rarely...

[smoltchanov]

New Hampshire and Maine are winnable in the future. Very swingy voters. Lots of old-school yankee moderates. Lots of working-class whites too. Republicans could win both and carry ME/NH.

Vermont is just too filled with New York transplants to be winnable. Connecticut is too banker-dominated. Massachusetts has Boston, which is hopeless.

Maybe in a VERY distant future, Rhode Island becomes winnable.

Agreed.

Generally agree. But mostly - if we speak about presidential races. Much better chances -  in state elections (especially - gubernatorial). Liberal Massachusetts has Republican governor now. Connecticut was close to electing Republican governor in both 2010 and 2014 (and held it easily with Jodi Rell even in Democratic 2006), and Republican House member even in 2012. Rhode Island had Republican governor in 2002-2010. Vermont may elect Republican a governor in 2016. Ticket-splitting tradition is strong in New England (if suitable candidate runs).

But on Presidential level - yes, about that. Right now - New Hampshire and Maine only, and even them - only under special circumstances... "Solid conservatives" are "no-no" in vast majority of cases.... (LePage was extremely lucky both in 2010 AND 2014)

[smoltchanov]

If they downplayed social issues, they could win it back at the presidential level.  But given the current direction of the national party, I doubt that will happen anytime soon.    At this point, New Hampshire looks like the only competitive state there at the national level (and possibly Maine). 

As for at the state level, they already have much of New England, or at least remain competitive. 

4-6:1 Democratic majorities in Massachusetts and Rhode Island legislatures are very competitive? I doubt it. In Maine and New Hampshire - more or less, though it may change this year. In Connecticut and Vermont - permanent minority, but, at least, visible minority. In Massachusetts and Rhode Island - not so much, only some particular persons (like Baker, Avedisian, Carcieri, and so on). It's not an accident that Republicans have only 2 seats from New England in US House, and this is after a "banner" 2014. After 2016 they may have zero, as already happened in the past.

[smoltchanov]

And don't give me this crap about "but they were moderate Republicans."  A moderate Republican is still a Republican.  And I wouldn't really call LePage or Ayotte moderates, either.

Ayotte is a conservative, LePage - ultra-rightist. And yes, moderate Republican is still a Republican. But only moderate Republican can (and DID) win in most of the New England states, and party as a whole continues to march right, In fact - so right, that moderates will soon have no place in it even in New England. And with that any hope of getting New England back will be laid to rest.