predict wisconsin margins
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Author Topic: predict wisconsin margins  (Read 1572 times)
Matty
boshembechle
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« on: April 02, 2016, 07:33:32 PM »
R:

cruz 44
trump 31
kasich 22

D:

Sanders 54
Clinton 46
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Lyin' Steve
SteveMcQueen
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« Reply #1 on: April 02, 2016, 07:35:40 PM »
R:
Cruz 47
Trump 30
Kasich 23

D:
Sanders 61
Clinton 39
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #2 on: April 02, 2016, 07:39:24 PM »
Cruz 45
Trump 31
Kasich 23

Sanders 57
Clinton 43
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TDAS04
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« Reply #3 on: April 02, 2016, 07:42:27 PM »
Cruz: 44
Trump: 29
Kasich: 26

Sanders: 59
Clinton: 41
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RFayette
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« Reply #4 on: April 02, 2016, 07:43:11 PM »
Cruz 40
Trump 35
Kasich 20

Sanders 53
Clinton 47

I think people are too optimistic for Sanders/Cruz here; this is a primary, not a caucus.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #5 on: April 02, 2016, 07:44:38 PM »
R:

cruz 40
trump 34
kasich 26

D:

Sanders 53
Clinton 47
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #6 on: April 02, 2016, 07:46:39 PM »
Cruz 49
Trump 34
Kasich 15

Sanders 56
Clinton 43
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: April 02, 2016, 08:00:19 PM »
Cruz 44
Trump 35
Kasich 20

Sanders 56
Clinton 44
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #8 on: April 02, 2016, 08:07:25 PM »
I think Bernie can hit 60% here, judging from the current environment in the state.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #9 on: April 02, 2016, 08:27:00 PM »
46 Cruz
34 Trump
22 Kasich
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #10 on: April 02, 2016, 08:44:05 PM »
« Edited: April 02, 2016, 08:46:13 PM by Fusionmunster »
Hillary - 50%
Sanders - 49%

Please win Wisconsin Hillary, please put us democrats out of our misery.
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Why
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« Reply #11 on: April 02, 2016, 08:54:43 PM »
Republican Cruz by 8

Democrats Sanders may win but it will not matter.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #12 on: April 02, 2016, 09:11:32 PM »
« Edited: April 04, 2016, 10:15:29 PM by Fargobison »
Cruz by 13
Bernie by 8
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #13 on: April 02, 2016, 09:32:41 PM »
Why so many big margins for Cruz? Polling has him averaging well under 5% over Trump.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #14 on: April 02, 2016, 09:33:31 PM »
Sanders 57%
Clinton 42%

Cruz 38%
Trump 36%
Kasich 21%
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Xing
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« Reply #15 on: April 02, 2016, 09:34:33 PM »
Quote from: Runeghost on April 02, 2016, 09:32:41 PM
Why so many big margins for Cruz? Polling has him averaging well under 5% over Trump.

Cruz has often overperformed his polls. Sanders has in some (particularly non-Southern) states, so that's why some people are predicting a double-digit win for him, even though polls only have him up by mid-single digits.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #16 on: April 02, 2016, 09:39:54 PM »
Cruz 45%
Trump 34%
Kasich 20%

Sanders 54%
Clinton 45%
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #17 on: April 02, 2016, 09:51:17 PM »
Quote from: Ronnie on April 02, 2016, 09:39:54 PM
Cruz 45%
Trump 34%
Kasich 20%

Sanders 54%
Clinton 45%

Would an 11 point crz victory warrant a call right as polls close?
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #18 on: April 02, 2016, 10:21:03 PM »
Cruz 45
Trump 30
Kasich 18
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Averroës Nix
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« Reply #19 on: April 02, 2016, 10:25:15 PM »
52% Sanders
48% Clinton

45% Cruz
30% 🚽
25% Kasich
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RJEvans
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« Reply #20 on: April 02, 2016, 10:27:26 PM »
Sanders +12
Cruz +9
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #21 on: April 02, 2016, 11:00:40 PM »
Cruz 41%
Trump 34%
Kasich 25%

Sanders 52%
Clinton 48%
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Smash255
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« Reply #22 on: April 02, 2016, 11:11:00 PM »
Sanders by 13, and he cracks 70% in Dane.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #23 on: April 03, 2016, 12:47:47 AM »
I hate making primary predictions (and I'm afraid this is going to bite me later), but I can't resist. I look at the same polling as everyone else and make a judgement:

Cruz 44%
Trump 32%
Kasich 22%

Sanders 53%
Clinton 46%

I feel more confident in predicting the Republican race. If Cruz can't pull this off, he's done and Trump will be unstoppable. On the Democratic side, Bernie should probably win, but polling is a lot closer than expected. I basically split the difference. I think it could be anywhere from a very narrow Clinton win to a 57-42 blowout for Sanders. Right now, I feel it'd take a miracle for Hillary to win Wisconsin, but surprises do happen. I suppose I may somewhat be playing the expectations game.
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dax00
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« Reply #24 on: April 03, 2016, 02:10:51 AM »
Cruz 41%
Trump 37%
Kasich 20%

Sanders 59%
Clinton 40%
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