GOP Strategy for a Brokered Convention

[Fuzzy Bear]

I've long predicted that, in the end, the GOP Establishment would join up with Ted Cruz to stop Trump from gaining the GOP nomination.  My basis for this prediction was that the GOP Establishment would be far more able to co-opt a US Senator than an independent billionaire.  The motivation would be to cut their losses and avoid an ugly convention by placating the "anti-establishment" folks by supporting Cruz when push came to shove.

While it appears to be playing out that way, I have underestimated the contempt in which the GOP Establishment holds Cruz in.  They really don't like him any more than Trump, and they'll never really be dealing with Cruz from a position of strength, given that they need him more than he needs them.  In addition, this solution does not appear to promise a harmonious end to the convention.  The ugliness of the convention will not be avoided by switching to Cruz.

So I wonder:  What does the Establishment really have to lose by trying to deadlock the convention and airlifting in a candidate of their own?  While nominating a candidate who hadn't run in the primaries isn't what most voters expect, Hubert Humphrey was nominated by the 1968 equivalent of superdelegates, delegates who were chosen by conventions, and delegates who were earned by state Favorite Sons who were on the ballot as surrogates for LBJ who withdrew on March 31, 1968.  (Think about how late that was.)

The Establishment really has nothing to lose by trying the strategy of deadlock.  If they win, they keep control of their party.  In addition. it is not clear as to whether or not most rank-and-file Republicans wouldn't rather have "someone else" that hasn't come forth.  Paul Ryan's name is often dropped in this conversation, and whatever his limitations, he'd be a far stronger GE candidate against HRC.  There are others I could think of that would be ideal nominees; Condileeza Rice comes to mind.  Indeed, this scenario is the only scenario I can envision Rice being the nominee, but no one would question her fitness for the top job.  There are others, but the idea is the principle; is it clear that this strategy would really be the worst one for the GOP, and, in particular, for its "Establishment"?

[Angel of Death]

Unless I'm missing something here, option 1 is simply impossible.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Unless I'm missing something here, option 1 is simply impossible.

A lot would depend on how well Ted does from here on out, and whether or not Kasich and Rubio are on board with this. 

[Mr. Morden]

I get the feeling that "the Establishment" in DC is wired differently from "the Establishment" in the countryside, with the latter being far more open to Cruz, even in the absence of any active recruiting on the part of the Cruz campaign.  Since the delegates mostly come from the countryside (local county executives and the like), I think they'll largely be pretty cool with Cruz.  If Trump doesn't win on the first ballot, I lean towards Cruz winning on the second ballot.

Maybe if Paul Ryan openly declared his candidacy on the second ballot, he could make something happen, but I doubt he'll do that.  So we're most likely going to get Trump or Cruz (with the former only happening if he gets a majority on the first ballot).

[Ronnie]

Explain what you mean by "the establishment".  Are you talking about the proportion of delegates that are not Cruz or Trump loyalists?  If so...it's hard to say.  Some might try to stall and hope rule 40 gets repealed after the first few ballots, and then try to draft a white knight like Ryan.  But the question of whether enough of them do that is one of the many mysteries that will unfold at the convention.  

But yeah, viewing the "establishment" as a monolith is certainly a mistake.  Some establishment delegates might view repealing rule 40 on later ballots as unrealistic.  Some might fear a full-scale revolt if they subvert the will of the voters.  Some might even like Trump or Cruz.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I get the feeling that "the Establishment" in DC is wired differently from "the Establishment" in the countryside, with the latter being far more open to Cruz, even in the absence of any active recruiting on the part of the Cruz campaign.  Since the delegates mostly come from the countryside (local county executives and the like), I think they'll largely be pretty cool with Cruz.  If Trump doesn't win on the first ballot, I lean towards Cruz winning on the second ballot.

Maybe if Paul Ryan openly declared his candidacy on the second ballot, he could make something happen, but I doubt he'll do that.  So we're most likely going to get Trump or Cruz (with the former only happening if he gets a majority on the first ballot).

Explain what you mean by "the establishment".  Are you talking about the proportion of delegates that are not Cruz or Trump loyalists?  If so...it's hard to say.  Some might try to stall and hope rule 40 gets repealed after the first few ballots, and then try to draft a white knight like Ryan.  But the question of whether enough of them do that is one of the many mysteries that will unfold at the convention.   

But yeah, viewing the "establishment" as a monolith is certainly a mistake. Some establishment delegates might view repealing rule 40 on later ballots as unrealistic.  Some might fear a full-scale revolt if they subvert the will of the voters.  Some might even like Trump or Cruz.

I've highlighted several points which I consider to be very important observations.  The term "GOP Establishment" certainly means something different than it did in 1964, or even 2000.

When I say "the Establishment", I mean folks who are from both the political and donor classes that have a vested interest in the advancement of the Republican Party in order that their own interests (free trade being the biggest one) be advanced.  These are the folks that provide the local establishments with direction and motivation; after all, much of their local funding comes through the networks of fundraising they provide. 

As an aside, I am much pleased that the Trade issue has come front and center in this year's campaign.  I have long been skeptical of the benefits to the average citizen of free trade.  I am told it brings about lower prices and "creates jobs", but the site of closed manufacturing plants leads me to doubt this somewhat.

[Joe Republic]

[Mehmentum]

They have 2 options:

1.) Watch helplessly as Trump wins on the first ballot due to garnering votes from unpledged delegates.

2.) Watch helplessly as Cruz's ninja delegates nominate him on the second ballot.

[The Other Castro]

Assuming Trump doesn't win the 1st ballot, Cruz should pretty easily win the 2nd ballot. By my numbers, the starting 2nd ballot numbers should look something like this:

Trump 429, Cruz 387, Kasich 160, Other 41,  Uncommitted 1455

Cruz needs 59% of the total uncommitted delegates to win, but only 32% of the uncommitted delegates that were not previously backing him. Likewise, Kasich would need 74% total and 63% new. Any white night challenger would need 85% of the uncommitted delegates. Barring a highly coordinated effort by the RNC (which I doubt will be able to skillfully coordinate anything that week), Cruz should win on the 2nd ballot.

[Mr. Morden]

I just think all of these “What will the establishment do?” questions are looking at it all wrong.  First of all, there are no brokers anymore.  The delegates are free agents.  I’m sure some of them can be bribed to vote this way or that way, but there isn’t a cabal of big money donors or party leaders who can tell the delegates that they have to vote a certain way.  The delegates will vote however the delegates want to vote.  For that matter, the candidates themselves can’t necessarily tell their own delegates how to vote.  I do think you might see some attempt at a Cruz/Kasich unity ticket or something—the vice presidency will be a big bargaining chip in all this—but Kasich’s delegates aren’t necessarily all going to back Cruz (even with Kasich as his running mate) because Kasich tells them to.  Some will, but others won’t.

Second, the delegates aren’t “the establishment” in the way that people here tend to use the term.  Some of them are loyalists to the candidate they’re pledged to, but others aren’t.  And the ones who aren’t are not necessarily “establishment” either.  Many Trump delegates are “ninja” Cruz supporters who his campaign recruited.  Or else, they’re party regulars in their state who don’t necessarily have the same antipathy towards Cruz (or maybe even Trump) that the “establishment” in DC has.

Third, I don’t get the sense that there are any “white knight” candidates plotting a coup here.  Trump, Cruz, and Kasich campaigns are all trying to stack the delegates with their supporters, but Mitt Romney isn’t, Paul Ryan isn’t, etc.  I don’t think either Romney or Ryan are terribly interested in claiming the nomination for themselves in Cleveland.  *Maybe* Ryan will do it everyone begs him, like they begged him to be Speaker, but that’s a pretty big longshot.

No, the #NeverTrump folks in the “establishment” aren’t actually trying to install one of their own as the nominee.  They’re just trying to stop Trump from being the nominee, without any organized effort to insure that the nomination goes to a specific non-Trump person.  Cruz might be low on their list of preferred options, but they’re OK with him, in a way that they aren’t with Trump.

I guess the thinking is that Trump risks making an Akin-esque gaffe every week, and risks redefining what it means to be a Republican in a way that they don’t like.  Maybe Cruz would lose just as badly or worse than Trump would, but that’s secondary.  They already seem to be assuming that they’re going to lose this election, but just don’t want to be stuck attached to a Trump candidacy.

So anyway, point is, for someone like Romney, if there are delegates he can influence to not vote for Trump, he’ll do so.  But he won’t actually try to steer them towards a specific non-Trump alternative (but note that in his interviews, he said that he thinks that the nominee should be someone currently in the race rather than someone outside the race like him).  I guess if the nomination is to be “stolen”, he doesn’t want it to be written that he “stole” it for a particular person.  That’s how many of these other folks seem to be approaching it as well.

And that’s why, if Trump doesn’t win on the first ballot, we’ll most likely get Cruz on the second or third ballot.

[Torie]

But Trump might try to steer his delegates away from Cruz, after he tanks, if he tanks.

[Mr. Morden]

But Trump might try to steer his delegates away from Cruz, after he tanks, if he tanks.

I just think Trump is getting murdered in delegate loyalty by Cruz.  Many of the Trump delegates will actually be anti-Trump people who are nonetheless pledged to vote for Trump on the first ballot.

As explained here:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/trumps-uphill-delegate-scramble-221443

and here:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/

These are not folks who are going to listen to what Trump tells them to do.  Cruz both 1) has stacked their ranks with many of his own people, and 2) has the most popular support of all the non-Trumps.

[Kingpoleon]

I get the feeling that "the Establishment" in DC is wired differently from "the Establishment" in the countryside, with the latter being far more open to Cruz, even in the absence of any active recruiting on the part of the Cruz campaign.  Since the delegates mostly come from the countryside (local county executives and the like), I think they'll largely be pretty cool with Cruz.  If Trump doesn't win on the first ballot, I lean towards Cruz winning on the second ballot.

Maybe if Paul Ryan openly declared his candidacy on the second ballot, he could make something happen, but I doubt he'll do that.  So we're most likely going to get Trump or Cruz (with the former only happening if he gets a majority on the first ballot).

In Arkansas, we have at least one Rubio delegate for Kasich, and up to five likely Trump delegates for Cruz.

[Torie]

What percentage of Trump delegates will be pro Cruz Quislings, then becomes the question. And are most of these folks actually pro Cruz, and want to vote for a loser, or are just anti Trump, and looking for a winner perhaps?

[Penelope]

I imagine they'll try their best to push Cruz during the first and second ballots in a desperate attempt to stop Trump. If it goes to 3 or more ballots, its easy to imagine that at least some will start getting cold feet about the Cruz marriage.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

If the nomination is decided:

On the first ballot- Trump
On the second ballot- Cruz
On the third ballot- Cruz or Ryan
On the fourth ballot or later- Could be anyone other than Trump

[PeteB]

Some very good points in this thread. One other factor that I believe the delegates will pay attention to is, which candidates can win and which ones can generate the coat tails that would help Republicans across the nation. In addition, many of the delegates will either be candidates themselves, or are closely tied to candidates for various elected positions in November. So, the simple fact is that many of these delegates would have a personal stake who the nominee is that may transcend their personal biases or preferences.

Therefore IMHO the convention options here are pretty simple and straightforward:

1. Trump's only chance is to win is on the first ballot. After that he will fade faster than his abortion policy changes.

2. Cruz's only chance to win is on the second ballot. Everyone knows that he has put a lot of effort into organization and, if he can't pick up 1,237 delegates then, he will only go down from there.

3. If we get to the third ballot, the only possible winners are either Kasich or a white knight catapulted in (at this stage Ryan is the most obvious candidate).


So, based on this scenario, and assuming the head to head matchup poll numbers between GOP candidates and Hillary stay the same, here are my predictions:

1. Trump fails miserably on the first ballot and fades away (although if he is smart he will try to strike a deal before that)

2. In spite of all the shenanigans, Cruz fails to get the necessary delegates on the second ballot. Some delegates are concerned what Cruz at the top of the ticket will do to their chances while others who never liked him back away once they see Trump's efforts crumble.

3. The establishment tries to push Ryan forward but Kasich's home court advantage and good poll numbers dissuade Ryan. In spite of their concerns about Kasich not toeing the party line, the "establishment" throws their support behind Kasich.

4. Kasich is the GOP nominee and we have a Kasich - Clinton election.

[The Other Castro]

Some very good points in this thread. One other factor that I believe the delegates will pay attention to is, which candidates can win and which ones can generate the coat tails that would help Republicans across the nation. In addition, many of the delegates will either be candidates themselves, or are closely tied to candidates for various elected positions in November. So, the simple fact is that many of these delegates would have a personal stake who the nominee is that may transcend their personal biases or preferences.

Therefore IMHO the convention options here are pretty simple and straightforward:

1. Trump's only chance is to win is on the first ballot. After that he will fade faster than his abortion policy changes.

2. Cruz's only chance to win is on the second ballot. Everyone knows that he has put a lot of effort into organization and, if he can't pick up 1,237 delegates then, he will only go down from there.

3. If we get to the third ballot, the only possible winners are either Kasich or a white knight catapulted in (at this stage Ryan is the most obvious candidate).


So, based on this scenario, and assuming the head to head matchup poll numbers between GOP candidates and Hillary stay the same, here are my predictions:

1. Trump fails miserably on the first ballot and fades away (although if he is smart he will try to strike a deal before that)

2. In spite of all the shenanigans, Cruz fails to get the necessary delegates on the second ballot. Some delegates are concerned what Cruz at the top of the ticket will do to their chances while others who never liked him back away once they see Trump's efforts crumble.

3. The establishment tries to push Ryan forward but Kasich's home court advantage and good poll numbers dissuade Ryan. In spite of their concerns about Kasich not toeing the party line, the "establishment" throws their support behind Kasich.

4. Kasich is the GOP nominee and we have a Kasich - Clinton election.

1. Agreed
2. Cruz has a very good shot at winning on a 2nd ballot, but it is by no means his only chance to win. Who's to say that organization won't carry on through later ballots?
3. Again, Cruz is still a major contender in a 3rd or later number of ballots, though Kasich and others probably do start to become possibilities at this point as well.

For your scenarios:

1. Agreed
2. Disagree, Cruz should probably be able to keep a good hold on his own delegates while picking up the 32%-40% of new delegates needed from other candidates.
3. Even if Cruz fails on the 2nd ballot, he should come very close to a majority. The 3rd ballot unbinds California, which should be enough to put Cruz over the edge if he hasn't done so already. The establishment is not as defined and powerful in these convention situations as people think, and lack the organization to put a non-candidate forward as the nominee.
4. Most likely a Cruz-Clinton election

[PeteB]

Some very good points in this thread. One other factor that I believe the delegates will pay attention to is, which candidates can win and which ones can generate the coat tails that would help Republicans across the nation. In addition, many of the delegates will either be candidates themselves, or are closely tied to candidates for various elected positions in November. So, the simple fact is that many of these delegates would have a personal stake who the nominee is that may transcend their personal biases or preferences.

Therefore IMHO the convention options here are pretty simple and straightforward:

1. Trump's only chance is to win is on the first ballot. After that he will fade faster than his abortion policy changes.

2. Cruz's only chance to win is on the second ballot. Everyone knows that he has put a lot of effort into organization and, if he can't pick up 1,237 delegates then, he will only go down from there.

3. If we get to the third ballot, the only possible winners are either Kasich or a white knight catapulted in (at this stage Ryan is the most obvious candidate).


So, based on this scenario, and assuming the head to head matchup poll numbers between GOP candidates and Hillary stay the same, here are my predictions:

1. Trump fails miserably on the first ballot and fades away (although if he is smart he will try to strike a deal before that)

2. In spite of all the shenanigans, Cruz fails to get the necessary delegates on the second ballot. Some delegates are concerned what Cruz at the top of the ticket will do to their chances while others who never liked him back away once they see Trump's efforts crumble.

3. The establishment tries to push Ryan forward but Kasich's home court advantage and good poll numbers dissuade Ryan. In spite of their concerns about Kasich not toeing the party line, the "establishment" throws their support behind Kasich.

4. Kasich is the GOP nominee and we have a Kasich - Clinton election.

1. Agreed
2. Cruz has a very good shot at winning on a 2nd ballot, but it is by no means his only chance to win. Who's to say that organization won't carry on through later ballots?
3. Again, Cruz is still a major contender in a 3rd or later number of ballots, though Kasich and others probably do start to become possibilities at this point as well.

For your scenarios:

1. Agreed
2. Disagree, Cruz should probably be able to keep a good hold on his own delegates while picking up the 32%-40% of new delegates needed from other candidates.
3. Even if Cruz fails on the 2nd ballot, he should come very close to a majority. The 3rd ballot unbinds California, which should be enough to put Cruz over the edge if he hasn't done so already. The establishment is not as defined and powerful in these convention situations as people think, and lack the organization to put a non-candidate forward as the nominee.
4. Most likely a Cruz-Clinton election

The reason why I think Cruz will fade after the second ballot (unless of course he wins or comes so close that it is only a matter of persuading a few more delegates) is that, by that time, Trump will be history and many NoTrump delegates, who are now bound to Cruz for convenience, will look at electability and consider other options.

[Suburbia]

They'll try to nominate Ryan or Thune or some other establishment friendly choice. Savage and Beck will not take it lightly though, neither will their listeners.

[Mr. Morden]

What percentage of Trump delegates will be pro Cruz Quislings, then becomes the question. And are most of these folks actually pro Cruz, and want to vote for a loser, or are just anti Trump, and looking for a winner perhaps?

I was going to respond to this, but got on to other things, but better late than never....

I don't know the exact numbers.  I just think that it's notable how much the anti-Trump folks, even the very establishment ones like Romney, are rhetorically just very anti-Trump, and taking great pains to make clear that they're speaking out against him because they think he, in particular, would be a terrible nominee and terrible president, not because they want to install a particular person as the nominee in his place.

It's sort of like the establishment is saying "We don't want Trump, but we also don't want to actually take responsibility for deciding who gets nominated in his place.  That's for the voters and the delegates to decide."

That, plus the fact that Cruz is killing it on delegate recruitment (though, no, I don't know exact numbers), plus the fact that the sort of person who becomes an RNC delegate is already likely to be much more Cruz-friendly than the party's DC elite, plus the fact that Cruz can create pseudo-democratic legitimacy by picking Kasich or Rubio as his running mate, and saying that his voters plus his running mate's voters exceeds the number of votes Trump got....all of that leads me to believe that Cruz has most likely got this if Trump doesn't win on the first ballot.

[Torie]

What percentage of Trump delegates will be pro Cruz Quislings, then becomes the question. And are most of these folks actually pro Cruz, and want to vote for a loser, or are just anti Trump, and looking for a winner perhaps?

I was going to respond to this, but got on to other things, but better late than never....

I don't know the exact numbers.  I just think that it's notable how much the anti-Trump folks, even the very establishment ones like Romney, are rhetorically just very anti-Trump, and taking great pains to make clear that they're speaking out against him because they think he, in particular, would be a terrible nominee and terrible president, not because they want to install a particular person as the nominee in his place.

It's sort of like the establishment is saying "We don't want Trump, but we also don't want to actually take responsibility for deciding who gets nominated in his place.  That's for the voters and the delegates to decide."

That, plus the fact that Cruz is killing it on delegate recruitment (though, no, I don't know exact numbers), plus the fact that the sort of person who becomes an RNC delegate is already likely to be much more Cruz-friendly than the party's DC elite, plus the fact that Cruz can create pseudo-democratic legitimacy by picking Kasich or Rubio as his running mate, and saying that his voters plus his running mate's voters exceeds the number of votes Trump got....all of that leads me to believe that Cruz has most likely got this if Trump doesn't win on the first ballot.

And what is most depressing, is that you most likely are right. Damn, just damn.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

It doesnt matter. It's either trump wins th nomination, or the GOP simply loses the conservative wing

Does this hold true even if Trump's bad week turns into a continuing meltdown?

[Blair]

I agree with what was saying before; there's almost a professional 'tea party' establishment that's grown through the various PACS, Talk Radio and other mediums-basically what we saw in Wisconsin yesterday

[Slander and/or Libel]

Some very good points in this thread. One other factor that I believe the delegates will pay attention to is, which candidates can win and which ones can generate the coat tails that would help Republicans across the nation. In addition, many of the delegates will either be candidates themselves, or are closely tied to candidates for various elected positions in November. So, the simple fact is that many of these delegates would have a personal stake who the nominee is that may transcend their personal biases or preferences.

Therefore IMHO the convention options here are pretty simple and straightforward:

1. Trump's only chance is to win is on the first ballot. After that he will fade faster than his abortion policy changes.

2. Cruz's only chance to win is on the second ballot. Everyone knows that he has put a lot of effort into organization and, if he can't pick up 1,237 delegates then, he will only go down from there.

3. If we get to the third ballot, the only possible winners are either Kasich or a white knight catapulted in (at this stage Ryan is the most obvious candidate).


So, based on this scenario, and assuming the head to head matchup poll numbers between GOP candidates and Hillary stay the same, here are my predictions:

1. Trump fails miserably on the first ballot and fades away (although if he is smart he will try to strike a deal before that)

2. In spite of all the shenanigans, Cruz fails to get the necessary delegates on the second ballot. Some delegates are concerned what Cruz at the top of the ticket will do to their chances while others who never liked him back away once they see Trump's efforts crumble.

3. The establishment tries to push Ryan forward but Kasich's home court advantage and good poll numbers dissuade Ryan. In spite of their concerns about Kasich not toeing the party line, the "establishment" throws their support behind Kasich.

4. Kasich is the GOP nominee and we have a Kasich - Clinton election.

How much are Kasich's people paying you?