Sanders apparently has 11 point lead amongst AA voters in Wisconsin
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  Sanders apparently has 11 point lead amongst AA voters in Wisconsin
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Author Topic: Sanders apparently has 11 point lead amongst AA voters in Wisconsin  (Read 793 times)
#TheShadowyAbyss
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« on: April 03, 2016, 12:40:44 AM »
« edited: April 03, 2016, 12:45:14 AM by #TheShadowyAbyss »

I still have an incredibly hard time believing this. Isn't HuffPost overreacting to ONE poll?

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/hillary-clintons-support-_b_9579544.html
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Holmes
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« Reply #1 on: April 03, 2016, 12:44:14 AM »

Huffington Post doesn't pay their contributors and will post anything.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2016, 01:13:05 AM »

Those crosstabs are downright ludicrous anyways. Sanders's lead among AA's is larger than his lead among whites. In what universe does that even remotely make sense?
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Crumpets
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« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2016, 01:14:45 AM »

Those crosstabs are downright ludicrous anyways. Sanders's lead among AA's is larger than his lead among whites. In what universe does that even remotely make sense?

WHAT PART OF KILLER MIKE ENDORSEMENT DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND??!?!?!
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cinyc
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« Reply #4 on: April 03, 2016, 01:22:56 AM »

Those crosstabs are downright ludicrous anyways. Sanders's lead among AA's is larger than his lead among whites. In what universe does that even remotely make sense?

The universe where small sample sizes have huge margins of error.  Wisconsin is only 6.6% African American.  Assuming you could equally reach African-Americans and others, in a poll of 500, that would be 33 respondents.  A poll of 33 has a MoE of about +/-17 points.  And African American VAP is probably slightly lower than 6.6%, making the already ludicrous MoE even higher.

In their online presentation, Marquette specifically went out of their way to only break things down by White/Non-White because their sample size for subgroups of Non-White (like African-American) were so small that the results were not statistically significant.
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
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« Reply #5 on: April 03, 2016, 01:23:48 AM »

Those crosstabs are downright ludicrous anyways. Sanders's lead among AA's is larger than his lead among whites. In what universe does that even remotely make sense?

WHAT PART OF KILLER MIKE ENDORSEMENT DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND??!?!?!

The part where black voters don't know who tf Killer Mike is.
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #6 on: April 03, 2016, 01:39:44 AM »

Those crosstabs are downright ludicrous anyways. Sanders's lead among AA's is larger than his lead among whites. In what universe does that even remotely make sense?

The universe where small sample sizes have huge margins of error.  Wisconsin is only 6.6% African American.  Assuming you could equally reach African-Americans and others, in a poll of 500, that would be 33 respondents.  A poll of 33 has a MoE of about +/-17 points.  And African American VAP is probably slightly lower than 6.6%, making the already ludicrous MoE even higher.

In their online presentation, Marquette specifically went out of their way to only break things down by White/Non-White because their sample size for subgroups of Non-White (like African-American) were so small that the results were not statistically significant.
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Averroës Nix
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« Reply #7 on: April 03, 2016, 07:50:24 AM »

The title of this thread briefly made me think that some lunatic was going around Wisconsin conducting formal polls at AA meetings.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #8 on: April 03, 2016, 08:00:18 AM »

Those crosstabs are downright ludicrous anyways. Sanders's lead among AA's is larger than his lead among whites. In what universe does that even remotely make sense?
In the same universe where I woke up in bed with a supermodel this morning. a/k/a my hopes and dreams.

Small sample size, large MOE, yada, yada, yada.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: April 03, 2016, 09:18:54 AM »

The same Blacks that hes gonna lose in NY, Ca, MD & Pa
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #10 on: April 03, 2016, 02:59:43 PM »

The title of this thread briefly made me think that some lunatic was going around Wisconsin conducting formal polls at AA meetings.

Same.
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #11 on: April 03, 2016, 03:10:50 PM »

never trust poll cross tabs, they usually have incredibly small sample sizes and haven't gone through the weighting that top line numbers go through
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