NY,PA,WI-CBS/YouGov: Sanders/Cruz in WI; Clinton/Trump in NY, Trump in PA

[Mr. Morden]

CBS/YouGov polls of NY, PA, and WI:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-gop-divided-april-primaries-loom-ted-cruz-wisconsin-donald-trump-new-york-pennsylvania/

[Mr. Morden]

No Dem. numbers in PA I guess?

[Fusionmunster]

Going by Yougovs tendency to underestimate Hillary, Im starting to think she has a chance to take WI. As for NY numbers, Hillary only won the state by 17(i thought 10 but that was NJ) in 2008 and she was the sitting senator. I think she takes it by a bigger margin than 10 though, like I said yougov likes to underestimate Hillary.

[Skye]

No Dem. numbers in PA I guess?

They only included likely Republican voters.

Also, I'll lol if Cruz beats Kasich in NY.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My guess 53/46, Clinton

[YPestis25]

Going by Yougovs tendency to underestimate Hillary, Im starting to think she has a chance to take WI. As for NY numbers, Hillary only won the state by 10 in 2008 and she was the sitting senator. I think she takes it by a bigger margin than 10 though, like I said yougov likes to underestimate Hillary.

I thought she won it by 17 in 2008.

Still though, good numbers for Hilldawg, especially coming from YouGov.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Going by Yougovs tendency to underestimate Hillary, Im starting to think she has a chance to take WI. As for NY numbers, Hillary only won the state by 10 in 2008 and she was the sitting senator. I think she takes it by a bigger margin than 10 though, like I said yougov likes to underestimate Hillary.

She won by 17 in 2008. And yeah, considering that YouGov has been very friendly to Sanders (they were the only pollster showing him ahead in Illlinois) it seems that she will win by about the same margin now.
But it won't really matter if Wisconsin is this close and they essentially split the delegates.

[Fusionmunster]

Going by Yougovs tendency to underestimate Hillary, Im starting to think she has a chance to take WI. As for NY numbers, Hillary only won the state by 10 in 2008 and she was the sitting senator. I think she takes it by a bigger margin than 10 though, like I said yougov likes to underestimate Hillary.

I thought she won it by 17 in 2008.

Still though, good numbers for Hilldawg, especially coming from YouGov.

Going by Yougovs tendency to underestimate Hillary, Im starting to think she has a chance to take WI. As for NY numbers, Hillary only won the state by 10 in 2008 and she was the sitting senator. I think she takes it by a bigger margin than 10 though, like I said yougov likes to underestimate Hillary.

She won by 17 in 2008. And yeah, considering that YouGov has been very friendly to Sanders (they were the only pollster showing him ahead in Illlinois) it seems that she will win by about the same margin now.
But it won't really matter if Wisconsin is this close and they essentially split the delegates.

Yeah, for some reason I had NJ and NY results switched.

[Landslide Lyndon]

BTW, Dave Wasserman mentioned yesterday that the states that are demographically more representative of the Democratic party at large are Florida, Nevada, New York and New Jersey.
Not surprisingly states that were won or are expected to be won by Clinton.

[Niemeyerite]

Great numbers for TRUMP in PA.

[Xing]

I'm still sticking to my prediction of a double-digit Sanders win in WI. Considering how much time he's spent in the state compared to Clinton, and how favorable it should be for him, I'd be surprised if it were this close (not saying it's impossible.) Those NY numbers do look a little too favorable for Sanders, though. If we keep seeing Sanders only 10-12 behind Clinton (or less) though, maybe I'll have to consider that NY actually will be competitive. Not buying it yet.

The Republican numbers seem fairly believable. I never bought Kasich being that close to Trump. The fact that PA is next to OH isn't going to give the state to Kasich.

[Mehmentum]

Winning by 2 points in Wisconsin would be underwhelming for Sanders, as would winning by 10 in New York be for Clinton.  Neither result would really change the delegate math situation, however.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This is worrying for Sanders in Wisconsin. A close win won't do it in terms of delegate math (assuming he needs to catch up all the way in pledged to woo the supers). I think he needs a margin of around 15 points.

My prediction for NY is a 54-46 Clinton win and I see no reason to change that given the polling. But in terms of delegate math Sanders needs at least a 52-48 victory and should aim for 55-45.

[psychprofessor]

Milwaukee was seeing increased early voting turnout which probably helps Hillary. This may be a lot closer than demographics suggest.

[Wisconsin+17]

Bad news for Sanders.

Push for Trump. Trump needs 50+ in NY to remain viable. PA numbers are interesting.

Good news for Cruz, there. He's jumped from 20 percent up to about 29. Really needs to keep digging into that gap with Trump. Doesn't need a PA win, but needs to take as many delegates from Trump as possible.

Kasich needs to push in NY to get as many Trump voters as Possible, and needs to get his supporters to go for Cruz in PA.

[The Other Castro]

Pretty disappointing numbers for Kasich, but then again YouGov isn't the most reliable source. Also, I would be very surprised if Sanders wins by just 2 (it'll be closer to 10).

[Eraserhead]

Nice numbers in New York (especially since we still have weeks to go) but the Wisconsin results are worrying.

[A Perez]

Nice numbers in New York (especially since we still have weeks to go) but the Wisconsin results are worrying.

2 weeks.

[Eraserhead]

Nice numbers in New York (especially since we still have weeks to go) but the Wisconsin results are worrying.

2 weeks.

16 days if you want to be exact!

[Matty]

yougov/cbs had trump and kasich tied in ohio the sunday before.

NBC/Marist was far more accurate in the last big string of states. Hopefully they have polls to release.

[Tender Branson]

I don't really see how Hillary wins WI - but we'll see. I still predict something like 55-44 for Bernie.

[psychprofessor]

I don't really see how Hillary wins WI - but we'll see. I still predict something like 55-44 for Bernie.

depends on how many independents vote in dem or rep primary. hillary wins dems and if trump/cruz siphon off enough indies hillary wins.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

So much for Clinton being at 70 in New York.

[Matty]

Will marist/nbc be releasing polls? Usually they come out same time as cbs polls.

[Lief 🗽]

Will marist/nbc be releasing polls? Usually they come out same time as cbs polls.

We will probably get some Marist/NBC polls on Meet the Press next Sunday, I would guess.