Let's Assume the TPP Fails

[Frodo]

Let's assume Congress fails to ratify the Trans-Pacific Partnership, even in the lame-duck session.

What happens?  What are the possible ramifications?

[NeverAgain]

We make it better, or just not have trade deals that destroy American jobs.

[Santander]

Without backing from the executive branch, Congress will have very little incentive to ratify. Sanders, Clinton, Trump and Cruz are all opposed. TPP will die, but I can see smaller-scale negotiations continuing between the member countries built upon the TPP framework.

TPP is not a comprehensive free trade agreement like NAFTA, rather it is simply a trade framework that allows for freer, better codified trade than currently exists. I am of the opinion that something like TPP involving countries like Malaysia and Vietnam is necessary to counterbalance growing Chinese political and economic hegemony over Asia. A Clinton presidency is most likely to develop replacements for TPP, while a Trump presidency is probably least likely.

[Frodo]

bump

[Pericles]

China takes the influence and free trade instead of the US and forms an Asia-Pacific free trade zone in the region. China gains geopolitical influence and the US loses. Meanwhile the US is poorer economically without more free trade and full access to the Asia-Pacific market.

[Meclazine for Israel]

If the TPP failed, my 1965 L Series Fender Jazz would have $1,000 more in customs duties.

I better pick up that 1962 Stratocaster before Trump adds $2,000 to that in customs.

[Green Line]

China wins.  We lose.  Globalization is going to happen with or without us.

So much for "America First".

[ag]

Yep. Looks like it will be the Chinese century. US has just given it all up.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Are the other TPP countries going to bother with pushing for it now, and forming like, a Japan led bloc?

[ag]

Are the other TPP countries going to bother with pushing for it now, and forming like, a Japan led bloc?

Doubt so. Even if they do, any call by China will supercede it.

[Green Line]

100 years ago people will look at the failure of the TPP as our Waterloo.

[Devout Centrist]

100 years ago people will look at the failure of the TPP as our Waterloo.

I wouldn't go that far, but this is pretty disasterous.

[Torie]

Trump thinks he can cut a series of bilateral deals. I suspect that would be rife with problems, but I am not a trade expert, to say the least.

[The Ex-Factor]

He probably could; the USA has the market size to effectively extract favorable trade deals from other countries on a bilateral basis. Of course these are still worse from an economic standpoint than multilateral trade deals (google spaghetti bowl effect).

Cutting a series of bilateral deals isn't a bad tactic for a superpower when it comes to security issues (see: China in the South China Sea), but if you believe as most people do that trade is win-win, the more multilateral the better. Trump views trade as a zero-sum game though so I guess he will be investing a ton of time and effort into re-negotiating NAFTA and trade deals with the EU for no real gain.

[ag]

You forget one thing: until and unless the potential partners are convinced that Trump is forever, they have no reason to negotiate seriously. Even under the best conditions trade negotiations take years from start to finish: four years is not long at all. So, why rush? What is it that you are going to get from Trump that you are not going to get from his successors? The only reason anybody is going to seriously negotiate is if they are counting on the incompetence of the current US trade team - then, perhaps, negotiations would make sense now. But, with the sad exception of the rump UK, nobody will be interested in any deals Trump would be willing to make.

China, on the other hand, is in a sweet position to deal.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

How in the world did ag become an unignorable moderator?

[The_Doctor]

NAFTA - Reagan's brainchild - took 12 years to negotiate from Ronald Reagan's announcement in 1979 to ratification in 1993.

So yeah, trade deals take a long time to ratify.

[Devout Centrist]

How in the world did ag become an unignorable moderator?

Dunno, but thankfully, the same doesn't apply to you.

[ag]

NAFTA - Reagan's brainchild - took 12 years to negotiate from Ronald Reagan's announcement in 1979 to ratification in 1993.

So yeah, trade deals take a long time to ratify.

And don't even talk of all the years it took the WTO to come into existence Does anybody here still remember the word GATT?

[ag]

How in the world did ag become an unignorable moderator?

You have any objections to my moderatorial decisions on this board? If yes, please let me know: I would certainly take that seriously.

I guess, I was asked to moderate this board originally because I know a little bit about economics.

[Frodo]

How in the world did ag become an unignorable moderator?

You have any objections to my moderatorial decisions on this board? If yes, please let me know: I would certainly take that seriously.

I guess, I was asked to moderate this board originally because I know a little bit about economics.

Eharding and ag -please don't derail this thread. 

[ag]

How in the world did ag become an unignorable moderator?

You have any objections to my moderatorial decisions on this board? If yes, please let me know: I would certainly take that seriously.

I guess, I was asked to moderate this board originally because I know a little bit about economics.

Eharding and ag -please don't derail this thread.  

I have no intention to. I think I have provided a few substantive contributions here, have I not? And, I believe, I have been quite corteous in my response.

[Frodo]

How in the world did ag become an unignorable moderator?

You have any objections to my moderatorial decisions on this board? If yes, please let me know: I would certainly take that seriously.

I guess, I was asked to moderate this board originally because I know a little bit about economics.

Eharding and ag -please don't derail this thread.  

I have no intention to. I think I have provided a few substantive contributions here, have I not? And, I believe, I have been quite corteous in my response.

I know and I appreciate it, but I don't want to have a tit-for-tat here. 

[Devout Centrist]

NAFTA - Reagan's brainchild - took 12 years to negotiate from Ronald Reagan's announcement in 1979 to ratification in 1993.

So yeah, trade deals take a long time to ratify.

And don't even talk of all the years it took the WTO to come into existence Does anybody here still remember the word GATT?

GATT?! That was awful! Smoot-Hawley was an amazing law and should've been extended!