Pre-Wisconsin Poll: Who will be the Republican nominee?

[Јas]

Judging by my last poll, it looks like Atlas guestimates that Trump will fall short of a delegate majority - just 14% think Trump will be elected on the 1st ballot.

Who then does Atlas currently think will be the Republican nominee?

[Penelope]

Still going with Trump for now, he is still the most likely option despite recent hysteria. If he can't break 50% in New York later this month, however, then I think we're seriously looking at a brokered convention.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Cruz at a brokered convention.

[BlueSwan]

Still Trump, but less certain than before. My previous stance was that there was no way the GOP would deny him the nomination if he had the most delegates and was at least somewhat close to 1237. Now, it looks like they might possibly do it.

[JerryArkansas]

A month ago, it was Trump by a landslide, now it probably tossup between Cruz and Trump only because Trump still could get majority on first ballot.  If not, Cruz's nomination to lose.

[Sir Mohamed]

Either the Trumpster or Ryan. No way, a contested convention nominates Cruz.

[PeteB]

The convention will either nominate Kasich or (by default, if they choose anyone else) Clinton!

[Classic Conservative]

The convention will either nominate Kasich or (by default, if they choose anyone else) Clinton!

Your Kasich hackery is getting a little annoying dude.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Either the Trumpster or Ryan. No way, a contested convention nominates Cruz.

The Washington GOP establishment hates Cruz.  However, the convention floor will be very anti-Washington, and there's not much the party establishment can do about it.  When Southern and Western delegations start falling in under Cruz, everything will start moving his way.

[PeteB]

The convention will either nominate Kasich or (by default, if they choose anyone else) Clinton!

Your Kasich hackery is getting a little annoying dude.

Thank you for noticing.  Please let me know if I have exceeded the magic number of times I can post or back a candidate .

Ironically, I have some major disagreements with many of the Kasich policies; the flip side of that equation is that he is the only one who actually does have viable policies, experience and abilities, unlike the others .  Unfortunately, with the field down to these three, there really isn't much of a choice anymore.

[Erc]

Tough call here.  I'm going to say Trump is the most likely individual candidate, but that Not-Trump is more likely than Trump at this point.

Recent media reports and the results out of North Dakota mean I'm not as confident about Cruz winning outright on a putative second ballot anymore.  The delegate selection process seems to be benefiting the Not-Trump camp, not necessarily Cruz alone.  If this does go to a second ballot, I'd anticipate way more votes for Kasich (or a potential white knight on a dark horse) than people are expecting.

In other words, roughly Trump 45%, Cruz 40%, Other 15%.

[Torie]

Torie. Oh wait ... gotta change my avatar!

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Tough call here.  I'm going to say Trump is the most likely individual candidate, but that Not-Trump is more likely than Trump at this point.

Recent media reports and the results out of North Dakota mean I'm not as confident about Cruz winning outright on a putative second ballot anymore.  The delegate selection process seems to be benefiting the Not-Trump camp, not necessarily Cruz alone.  If this does go to a second ballot, I'd anticipate way more votes for Kasich (or a potential white knight on a dark horse) than people are expecting.

In other words, roughly Trump 45%, Cruz 40%, Other 15%.

If Trump doesn't win on the first ballot, look for the following to happen:

1. All the non-Cruz delegates in Texas and western Cruz delegations will be pressured to change to Cruz.  That's 121 more delegates from TX, OK, KS, WY, ID, and AK.

2. All Trump-plurality delegations in the South will have buyer's remorse and unify behind Cruz as well (I call it the "Southern Convention Firewall").  These states are AR, LA, KY, and NC (not counting VA).  That gets him 124 more delegates.

An influx of 245 votes won't be enough to give Cruz a majority, but it will put him ahead of Trump on the balloting.  A Western-Southern coalition will have formed, and the rest of the convention will probably fall in line.

[President Johnson]

Can't stump the .....

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Still Trump, but less certain than before. My previous stance was that there was no way the GOP would deny him the nomination if he had the most delegates and was at least somewhat close to 1237. Now, it looks like they might possibly do it.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Trump. The establishment doesn't have the balls to take the nomination away from Trump if he's ahead in delegates/popular vote.

[Admiral Kizaru]

Cruz on the third or latter ballots.

Trump's path to 1237 was already narrow and it was made even more narrower with his shocking last week of media coverage. And with all the stealth ninja Cruz delegates and the inevitable NeverTrump delegates only bound to him on the first ballot, he's in serious trouble if he fails to reach 1237 on the first ballot.

[The Other Castro]

Trump. The establishment doesn't have the balls to take the nomination away from Trump if he's ahead in delegates/popular vote.

That's the problem though, the establishment isn't doing anything. If Trump doesn't get a majority, many of his delegate will unbind and go wherever they please without the establishment needing to lift a finger. Trump isn't going to have the nomination taken away from him, he's just going to lose it.

[Derpist]

Trump! Wins on the first ballot before he goes and edges out Hillary in the general.

[RogueBeaver]

Cruz.

[TomC]

Ryan

[Xing]

I'm still leaning toward Trump, since it seems likely he can at least get close enough to 1,237 delegates to win on the first vote.

[Kingpoleon]

The convention will either nominate Kasich or (by default, if they choose anyone else) Clinton!

Your Kasich hackery is getting a little annoying dude.

Is your irony here intentional?