What's next for Greg Orman?

[BuckeyeNut]

He's obviously sitting it out this year, but will he make a comeback in Kansas politics? Unlike so many other failed candidates, he's kept a fairly active social media presence--for whatever that's worth--and while he didn't win like many polls predicted, he gave Senator Roberts the run of his life. Kansas hasn't had a Democratic Senator since 1939, but Kathleen Sebelius was elected Governor in 2002 and again in 2006. Given how unpopular Brownback's been, perhaps Orman might make a run for the Governorship in 2018? Or maybe he could try to take the Kansas City-based 3rd Congressional district, which he carried over Roberts with ~55.8% of the vote.

Thoughts?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Go back to being a generic rich dude.

[Nutmeg]

I wonder why he didn't run for the House this year. He lives in the 3rd after all.

[BuckeyeNut]

He's sure stayed pretty involved for someone who's given up on a career in politics.

I wonder why he didn't run for the House this year. He lives in the 3rd after all.

Though, yeah. Living in the 3rd and having done so well there last cycle, it's surprising...

[VPH]

For a solid month, there was a lot of discussion that he would run for senate against Moran. I never bought it, as Moran will be tough to beat. More recently, I have heard he's not planning to run this cycle. The DCCC is doing recruiting in the 3rd so maybe his name will be brought up again (as a Dem), but I doubt he would do it.

[BuckeyeNut]

Tougher to beat than Roberts in 2014? Why?

I may have spoken too soon about not running (for the Senate) this cycle, as the filing deadline for Independents is August 1st. If DCCC is actively recruiting in the 3rd, it makes sense for him to stay away, for now. If they don't actually find a candidate...

[VPH]

Tougher to beat than Roberts in 2014? Why?

I may have spoken too soon about not running (for the Senate) this cycle, as the filing deadline for Independents is August 1st. If DCCC is actively recruiting in the 3rd, it makes sense for him to stay away, for now. If they don't actually find a candidate...

Moran doesn't have the liabilities Roberts had. Roberts was easy to push back on with anti incumbent sentiment because he never came back to Kansas and he's been a senator for a long time. Moran is relatively fresh, being in his first term, and goes to every county in the state every year. He is MUCH better with constituent outreach. Also, Moran is more personable and friendly. When you look at the numbers, this shows with his higher favorability ratings.

[BuckeyeNut]

Tougher to beat than Roberts in 2014? Why?

I may have spoken too soon about not running (for the Senate) this cycle, as the filing deadline for Independents is August 1st. If DCCC is actively recruiting in the 3rd, it makes sense for him to stay away, for now. If they don't actually find a candidate...

Moran doesn't have the liabilities Roberts had. Roberts was easy to push back on with anti incumbent sentiment because he never came back to Kansas and he's been a senator for a long time. Moran is relatively fresh, being in his first term, and goes to every county in the state every year. He is MUCH better with constituent outreach. Also, Moran is more personable and friendly. When you look at the numbers, this shows with his higher favorability ratings.

You obviously know the state better than I do--and what you say makes sense, the full Grassley, or full Moran, is impressive--so I'll take your word for it. If DCCC does fail in getting a recruit--as they have so far--do you think it likely he does jump into the 3rd?

[IceSpear]

If only the people of Kansas weren't such dumbs. Why would you vote for the DC Fossil over Gregory the Gallant?

[VPH]

Tougher to beat than Roberts in 2014? Why?

I may have spoken too soon about not running (for the Senate) this cycle, as the filing deadline for Independents is August 1st. If DCCC is actively recruiting in the 3rd, it makes sense for him to stay away, for now. If they don't actually find a candidate...

Moran doesn't have the liabilities Roberts had. Roberts was easy to push back on with anti incumbent sentiment because he never came back to Kansas and he's been a senator for a long time. Moran is relatively fresh, being in his first term, and goes to every county in the state every year. He is MUCH better with constituent outreach. Also, Moran is more personable and friendly. When you look at the numbers, this shows with his higher favorability ratings.

You obviously know the state better than I do--and what you say makes sense, the full Grassley, or full Moran, is impressive--so I'll take your word for it. If DCCC does fail in getting a recruit--as they have so far--do you think it likely he does jump into the 3rd?

I don't know if he wants to run as a Dem, but I wouldn't count it totally out of the question

[BuckeyeNut]

Oh, I meant, if it becomes obvious DCCC hasn't recruited anyone by say, late July, he could always run as an Independent. (And gain their tacit support.)

[Coolface Sock #42069]

He's obviously sitting it out this year, but will he make a comeback in Kansas politics? Unlike so many other failed candidates, he's kept a fairly active social media presence--for whatever that's worth--and while he didn't win like many polls predicted, he gave Senator Roberts the run of his life. Kansas hasn't had a Democratic Senator since 1939, but Kathleen Sebelius was elected Governor in 2002 and again in 2006. Given how unpopular Brownback's been, perhaps Orman might make a run for the Governorship in 2018? Or maybe he could try to take the Kansas City-based 3rd Congressional district, which he carried over Roberts with ~55.8% of the vote.

Thoughts?

He really should have run for governor against Sam Brownback. Gubernatorial races are much less partisan, and Brownback is extremely unpopular.

[BuckeyeNut]

1: You think Orman would have done better than Davis?
2: I see Davis as having been less likely to drop out than Taylor was.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

1: You think Orman would have done better than Davis?
2: I see Davis as having been less likely to drop out than Taylor was.

2. 1. I legitimately think Orman would have done better than Davis did.

[BuckeyeNut]

Why, though?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Why, though?

Davis was the leader of the Democrats in the Kansas House. He represented a partisan challenge to not only Brownback but the Republican Party, and in a Republican wave year in a state that has never elected a Democrat to the Senate, it wasn't going to happen. Orman is an independent and could have run as one and just promised to clean house and focused on Brownback's record. He could have run a Bruce Rauner-like campaign, and I think he would have won.

[BuckeyeNut]

Hmm. Makes sense. And he wouldn't have to deal with choosing a party to caucus with.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Read this article, then tell me which major party would be anxious to take Orman in:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/04/07/thank_pampered_political_class_for_2016s_angry_electorate.html

[BuckeyeNut]

If it means he can unseat a Republican from Kansas, the Democratic one. Rich guy strikes a populist tone is basically Grayson, and Orman can probably do it better and to a great effect.

[Kingpoleon]

He needs to get someone like Sandy Praeger or William Kassebaum to run with him for Governor. The moderate Republicans are the only way to win in Kansas.

[Miles]

Read this article, then tell me which major party would be anxious to take Orman in:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/04/07/thank_pampered_political_class_for_2016s_angry_electorate.html

^ I got an email from him the other day where he touted that article - I was hoping he was announcing a campaign for something.  

[BuckeyeNut]

August 1st filing deadline means it could still happen.

He needs to get someone like Sandy Praeger or William Kassebaum to run with him for Governor. The moderate Republicans are the only way to win in Kansas.

So Sebelius was a twice-elected fluke?

[Mister Mets]

He's under 50 and he did pretty well in a conservative state in a very Republican year. A slight problem for him is that Paul Davis, a Democrat, did a little bit better, so he likely has right of first refusal.

The best bet for either of them would be to run for Governor when there's a Republican in the White House, or for the Senate in an open seat where an extremist Republican has a chance of winning the nomination.

[Kingpoleon]

August 1st filing deadline means it could still happen.

He needs to get someone like Sandy Praeger or William Kassebaum to run with him for Governor. The moderate Republicans are the only way to win in Kansas.

So Sebelius was a twice-elected fluke?

Both times she ran with a Republican-turned-Democrat: John Moore and then Mark Parkinson.

[BuckeyeNut]

August 1st filing deadline means it could still happen.

He needs to get someone like Sandy Praeger or William Kassebaum to run with him for Governor. The moderate Republicans are the only way to win in Kansas.

So Sebelius was a twice-elected fluke?

Both times she ran with a Republican-turned-Democrat: John Moore and then Mark Parkinson.

How many voters know anything about their Lt. Governor?