Icelandic parliamentary election 2016

[msnmllr]

This definitely has the possibility of being the most interesting elections in a while. Personally, I like Bright Future because of Óttarr Proppé's picture on Wikipedia. I just fear for Iceland's future under the Pirate Party, because direct democracy seems too risky. Furthermore, I disagree with some of the ideas of pirate politics. But

[Famous Mortimer]

This definitely has the possibility of being the most interesting elections in a while. Personally, I like Bright Future because of Óttarr Proppé's picture on Wikipedia. I just fear for Iceland's future under the Pirate Party, because direct democracy seems too risky. Furthermore, I disagree with some of the ideas of pirate politics. But

In general, I am opposed to direct democracy but Iceland only has 300,000 people. If there's anywhere where it could work, it would be Iceland.

[Oak Hills]

Pirate leader is very charismatic, and all the other parties suck (even though the Pirates have a big infighting/entryist problem which could burst their bubble). Sadly our resident Iceland expert is b& right now.

What are their internal factions?

Also, question for anyone: What parties might the Pirates go into coalition with if they win the election?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The factions are leftists and libertarians, and between people who want the party to be a party of governance and people who want it to be a radical movement.

They will almost certainly ally with the Left-Greens. LG have the most popular individual politician in the Republic. The other candidates in order are:

SDA - too divided, and not really in good shape; but will join any government if asked
BF - would be natural allies for the right-wing of the Pirates, but almost certainly won't enter parliament.
IP - possibly a wildcard in that they have a strong libertarian wing that seized control of the internal party structures; but hostile to the Constitution that Pirates really want codified and embody establishment interests.
Progressive - no chance, utterly discredited, their links with fishing business makes them unpalatable to both free marketers and leftists etc.

This thread should be adjusted as their is a Presidential election as well.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So I guess the answer to that...

Is it the Independence or Progressive party that went full libertarian in the last election? And have they veered back to the center since?

...was Indepencence and no, respectively.

Better late than never, I guess.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Last election, in fact, Progressives went on an almost Donald Trump-esque  "making deals" campaign where they promised to renegotiate the rotton mortgages held by average Icelanders. They didn't say how this was possible, just that they would (also shades of Syriza, lmao); and then they immediately realised they couldn't (which explains why support for them almost immediately cut in half).

IP may have libertarians infested in its infrastructure, but by its nature and its electoral/finanxial base cannot be too radical in its plans.

[Antonio the Sixth]

LOL. Looks like every Icelandic party has something crazy about them.

[reciprocity]

IP may have libertarians infested in its infrastructure, but by its nature and its electoral/finanxial base cannot be too radical in its plans.

This might be a stupid question but what would the libertarian wing do to upset their base? I would assume that their supporters are free marketers, no?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The major issue is fishing*. The IP (I.e. status quo) want to keep quotas which benefit the existing fishing companies. The left + free marketers want fishing auctions, which would let in other fishers. Basically the IP base are status quo people at heart and prefer not to rock the boat, because they have it made. IP's libertarian base want to very much rock the boat by pushing through major reforms - the small c conservatives don't like that sheet. (It's sort of how the Tories try and brush their young keen freemarket disciples under the carpet when Mr and Mrs Wilmington Esq. come in to see what policies they have).

(*if I remember correctly. I will no doubt be messaged on AAD by a pedantic Dane if incorrect lol)

[reciprocity]

The major issue is fishing*. The IP (I.e. status quo) want to keep quotas which benefit the existing fishing companies. The left + free marketers want fishing auctions, which would let in other fishers. Basically the IP base are status quo people at heart and prefer not to rock the boat, because they have it made. IP's libertarian base want to very much rock the boat by pushing through major reforms - the small c conservatives don't like that sheet. (It's sort of how the Tories try and brush their young keen freemarket disciples under the carpet when Mr and Mrs Wilmington Esq. come in to see what policies they have).

(*if I remember correctly. I will no doubt be messaged on AAD by a pedantic Dane if incorrect lol)

Who knew the left and libertarians would agree on something! I guess I understand the left wing perspective though. LOL I am sure that Mr and Mrs Wilmington Esq. consider themselves free marketers.... well the Thatcherite, special interest type. Anyway,  why don't the libertarians build their own new separate party? Especially since there is a proportional electoral system.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Oh, wow. I just found something really interesting. Party leader approval ratings from the latest MMR poll.

Katrín Jakobsdóttir (Left-Greens) 59% approve, 21% disapprove
Óttarr Proppé (Bright Future) 42% approve, 27% disapprove
Helgi Hrafn Gunnarsson (Pirate Party) 40% approve, 30% disapprove
Bjarni Benediktsson (Independence) 22% approve, 61% disapprove
Árni Páll Árnason (Social Democratic) 15% approve, 51% disapprove
Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson (Progressive) 10% approve, 81% disapprove (!!!!!!!!!!)

Interestingly, they also polled SDA vice-president and Reykjavik mayor Dagur Bergþóruson Eggertsson. He was not only MUCH better liked (29% approve, 44% disapprove) but also better known than the actual leader!

By the way, Progress seems to have changed leaders and now Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson will lead them into the election. This can't possibly help them at this point, can it?

Link: http://mmr.is/frettir/birtar-nieurstoeeur/530-10-prosent-bera-mikid-traust-til-sigmundar-davids

Iceland is a FF country for their 3 most popular leaders being a Pirate, a Green, and a former "We are the best" member.

[joevsimp]

This definitely has the possibility of being the most interesting elections in a while. Personally, I like Bright Future because of Óttarr Proppé's picture on Wikipedia. I just fear for Iceland's future under the Pirate Party, because direct democracy seems too risky. Furthermore, I disagree with some of the ideas of pirate politics. But

In general, I am opposed to direct democracy but Iceland only has 300,000 people. If there's anywhere where it could work, it would be Iceland.

they've already demonstrated what happens when everybody goes to the thing

[Famous Mortimer]

So this new Revival party is the small c conservative/non-libertarian faction of the IP broken away?

[Diouf]

Final polls from four different pollsters. Independence Party, Pirate Party, Left-Greens, Revival, Progressive Party, Bright Future, Social Democratic Alliance.

[Diouf]

http://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/elections2016/

It looks this English site will update on the results when they start running in from around 10 (GMT).

Their summary of how things look with the final opinion polls:

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[Antonio the Sixth]

Shame the pirates aren't leading anymore. Seeing them top the polls would have been epic.

[DC Al Fine]

Shame the pirates aren't leading anymore. Seeing them top the polls would have been epic.

I've noticed since I've joined this forum, I root for weird results more than anything else. On a completely unrelated note, Evan McMullin4UTAH!!!

[Diouf]

Is this PR?

Yes, it is. Unfortunately not open-list, I believe, but otherwise basically the Danish system, so as good as it gets
54 persons are elected by the D'hondt method in 6 constituencies; Reykjavik North and South, Southwest, Northwest, Northeast, South. An additional 9 seats are distributed among parties who pass the 5% thereshold nationally to make sure the result is also proportional on the national level.

[Diouf]

Icelandic TV link here: http://www.ruv.is/ruv

Pirate Party youtube live here: https://www.youtube.com/c/PiratenpartijPPNL/live

[Diouf]

Results starting to come in now. Predicted national result suggests that the Pirates might only finish 3rd; the Left-Green Movement is currently slightly ahead with the same number of seats. It predicts 31 seats for the left wing parties, one seat less than required for a majority. This means the new centre-right party Revival will likely be decisive. But still early, and I guess the big Pirate revolution is predicted in Reykjavik

[parochial boy]

Nice link for live results here

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Looks like the poll trend lines that were showing a decrease in Pirate votes and increase in Left-Green votes crossed.

[Diouf]

Predicted national result only has left-wing parties on 29 seats now, so the four-party left wing majority looks unlikely to occur. Pirates only on 13.5 % in a distant third place.

[Mike88]

Why is the count being sooooooooo slow?

Are the ballots or the electoral system complicated?

[Diouf]

Hard to predict which government will be formed now, I guess.

There is a centre-right majority with Independence - Revival - Progressive, but there are major differences between these parties on EU-membership, free trade, fishery etc. Revival is a breakout from Independence Party, and I don't know whether they are on OK terms. Also for a Revival party with a new style vibe, it might be too old-fashioned to simply team up with the traditional two right wing parties immediately.  Progressive party was hammered, so they would like some time to re-build.

I guess Revival could try to form a sort of modernizing majority with the left wing parties, but it will be messy with five-party cooperation with some huge ideological differences.

Since the Independence Party is by far the largest party, they will be hard to avoid in government formation, but there is no clear viable majority for them.