Rate a Ryan vs. Clinton race

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

You know what to do.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Strongly Lean R

[Penelope]

'Bout as Safe D as it can get for Hillary.

[Maxwell]

Safe D, and not just because of the fact that Ryan winning the nomination means a huge sect of voters just sit out.

Ryan would be a toxic nominee because he's a stiff, unspiring debater, extremely right-wing on issues that would turnout people massively against him, and would make little ground with minority groups necessary to win. Even without all the nomination stuff it would still be Lean D.

[Xing]

Since this means a brokered convention that ends up with a lot of disgruntled Trump (and possibly Cruz) supporters, Likely D.

[Penelope]

Congress currently has a 14% approval rating.

Anyone care to explain how Paul Ryan, the Speaker of the House and arguably one of the most prominent public faces of Congress, is going to make this at all competative after being nominated in the smoke-filled room, no less?

[Higgs]

Tossup

[Virginiá]

Safe D, and not just because of the fact that Ryan winning the nomination means a huge sect of voters just sit out.

Ryan would be a toxic nominee because he's a stiff, unspiring debater, extremely right-wing on issues that would turnout people massively against him, and would make little ground with minority groups necessary to win. Even without all the nomination stuff it would still be Lean D.

I voted Lean D, but I agree with pretty much all those points. Ryan didn't even run, and the only way he can win the nomination is if the party steals the nomination from the three people that did run. Should they do that, Cruz and Trump will definitely make sure Republican voters know that the establishment elite ignored their votes and rigged the primary. That will have serious consequences come November.

The GOP primary has done real damage if you ask me. Not only have they salted the earth in terms of minority voter outreach, but they are in such a position where they will royally piss off large numbers of Republican voters no matter what they do.

This election has already been decided IMO.

[Lyin' Steve]

Well, Ryan wouldn't be a bad nominee, he's competent and smart and more likable and honest than Hillary.  He's also moved towards the center and embellished his reputation considerably since 2012.  But the Republican party is a mess right now and the specter of Trump/Cruz will dog him throughout the campaign, which will only be four months long because he won't even know he's the nominee until the convention.  The entire election will end up being a rush job because he has no infrastructure or campaign staff in place, no money and no real semblance of a platform or message.  He'll have to spend the first month in a mad dash to hire staff and put together an operation, which will be a disaster.  He'll make lots of gaffes because he'll be rusty and won't have a cohesive platform.  Trump and Cruz supporters, possibly with the help of the candidates themselves, will snark at him and hurt him every chance they get.  Initial polls will have him down 15-20 points because of Trump/Cruz supporters refusing to vote for him in polls, which will demoralize his campaign and limit his ability to raise money or hire talent.  The press will still want to talk about Trump and his inevitable sore loser shenanigans, which will only hurt Ryan more.  Not to mention even if he didn't have those disadvantages, the rift that's formed this cycle between the GOP and the Obama coalition (with the exception of LGBT, although RFRAs may be mobilizing them as well) won't be healed in just four months.  It doesn't matter how hard Ryan tries, he won't get 40% of hispanics to vote for the party of Trump.

I don't think Ryan's stupid enough to take it.  What a waste of the party's best nominee.  He doesn't need the national exposure and he knows he can run in far more favorable circumstances against a deeply unpopular Hillary in 2020 and have much better odds.

[Maxwell]

lol Paul Ryan honest already plz stop.

[Lyin' Steve]

lol Paul Ryan honest already plz stop.

He's at 7% to Kasich's 10% on Predictwise.  For every 10 threads we have about Kasich we must have 7 about Bro Ryan.

[Flake]

You'd have a ton of pissed off Trump and Cruz voters. They stay home and Hillary wins pretty reliably.

[Derpist]

Tossup, because the points made by super-optimistic Republicans and the points made super-optimistic Democrats are both true.

[Virginiá]

....

I don't think Ryan's stupid enough to take it.  What a waste of the party's best nominee.  He doesn't need the national exposure and he knows he can run in far more favorable circumstances against a deeply unpopular Hillary in 2020 and have much better odds.

Very good points in your post. It's really hard to see how he could hit the ground running fast enough to catch a win in such short time. I don't think it's possible given how much damage he will have to repair from the mess would be walking into.

There would simply not be enough time, resources or experience given the current circumstances.

[Sir Mohamed]

Lean D.

[TDAS04]

At least tilt D.

[pho]

Had Ryan actually run in the primary and earned the nomination, lean/safe R. If the nomination gets handed to Ryan at the convention, with millions of Trump and Cruz supporters staying home, it becomes safe D.

This, and it's true regardless of who the white knight is in such a scenario.

[WVdemocrat]

Said Tilt D, only because I thought it was for 2020. If Ryan comes out of a brokered convention, this race will be Safe D.

[Illiniwek]

Why would anyone want this? Guy could be Speaker of the House for 10+ years. It's a much better job. Why put that in jeopardy to jump into the most toxic election that anyone can remember?

[PeteB]

I like Ryan but I voted tilt D.  All the issues mentioned in this thread will hit him like a ton of bricks.  Plus, the media will have a field day about the story of an ambitious young politician who got elected House Speaker as a compromise and is now trying to do the same for POTUS.  I would much rather see him get some stature as Speaker and then give it a serious shot in 4 or 8 years.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Trump vs. Clinton- Likely D
Cruz vs. Clinton- Tilts R
Kasich vs. Clinton- Leans R
Ryan vs. Clinton- Likely R

[Virginiá]

Trump vs. Clinton- Likely D
Cruz vs. Clinton- Tilts R
Kasich vs. Clinton- Leans R
Ryan vs. Clinton- Likely R

You made a few small mistakes, but I corrected them for you:

Trump vs. Clinton- Likely D
Cruz vs. Clinton- Likely D
Kasich vs. Clinton- Somewhere between Leans D and Likely D
Ryan vs. Clinton- Likely D

[President Johnson]

A solid win for Hillary.

[Ljube]

A solid win for Hillary.

[7,052,770]

Safe D. Nomination of Ryan is an intentional tactical surrender by Republicans.