A New Era: 2016 onward

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Prologue: The crazy 2016 election season would prove to be a significant realignment.  What started out as a seemingly "normal" election season had turned unpredictable by April. Hillary Clinton led Bernie Sanders by roughly 200 delegates entering New York. Meanwhile Donald Trump lead Ted Cruz by roughly 250 Delegates entering New York. The Primary season transpired in the following manor

Democrats:
Wyoming Sanders 75% Clinton 25%
New York Clinton 57% Sanders 43%
Connecticut Sanders 51% Clinton 49%
Delaware Clinton 55% Sanders 45%
Maryland Clinton 60% Sanders 40%
Pennsylvania Sanders 50.1% Clinton 49.9%
Rhode Island Sanders 51% Clinton 49%
Indiana Sanders 54% Clinton 46%
Guam Clinton 65% Sanders 35%
West Virginia Sanders 55% Clinton 45%
Kentucky Sanders 56% Clinton 44%
Oregon Sanders 69% Clinton 31%
Virgin Islands Clinton 60% Sanders 40%
Puerto Rico Clinton 62% Sanders 38%
California Clinton 53% Sanders 47%
Montana Sanders 57% Clinton 43%
New Jersey Clinton 63% Sanders 37%
New Mexico Clinton 59% Sanders 41%
North Dakota Sanders 57% Clinton 43%
South Dakota Sanders 57% Clinton 43%
DC Clinton 70% Sanders 30%
Hillary Clinton Clinches the nomination before the convention and chooses Virginia Senator  Tim Kaine as her running mate


Meanwhile on the GOP side
New York Trump 50% Kasich 30% Cruz 20%
Connecticut Trump 40% Kasich 38% Cruz 22%
Delaware Trump 42% Cruz 30% Kasich 22%
Maryland Trump 45%   38% Cruz 17%
Pennsylvania Trump 48% Cruz 30% Kasich 22%
Rhode Island Trump 40%   Kasich  38% Cruz 22%
   Kasich   drops out
Indiana Cruz 58% Trump 25% Other 7%
Nebraska Cruz 60% Trump 40%
West Virginia Trump 63% Cruz 37%
Oregon Cruz 55% Trump 45%
Washington Cruz 58% Trump 42%
California Trump 52% Cruz 48%
Montana Cruz 55% Trump 45%
New Jersey Trump 59% Cruz 41%
New Mexico Cruz 53% Trump 47%
South Dakota Cruz 58% Trump 42%

Cruz wins the nomination on the Second Ballot. Trump mounts an Independent bid, making it on the ballot in every state as either an Independent or a Write in. Cruz selects Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker as his running mate, while Trump chooses New Jersey Governor Chris Christie as his running mate.

Polls throughout the Campaign show a large lead for Clinton, as she runs a strong Campaign. Cruz is in second, while Trump is in third at roughly 15%.  The debate is noted as a turning point, in a three person debate Clinton uses her speaking time effectively to demonstrate   how she is experienced and ready to lead.  Here is the final RCP Averages
Key
Grey Toss up
Light Lean/likely  
Dark Safe
Green for  non-presidential races means no race for President it for Trump 
Presidential

Governor

Senate
 

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Election Night 2016



Good Evening and welcome to CNN live coverage of Election Night 2016. Tonight no matter we see history tonight we will either see are first Female President (Clinton), are First Independent President (Trump) or one of are most Conservative Presidents (Cruz). We will also be following key Senate battle ground races in Florida, Ohio, NH, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Louisiana.

We will also be following the House races tonight, the Democrats at least feel they have a shot at retaking both houses of Congress while retaining the Presidency, we are skeptical of a sweep but will not rule this out.

 Ok lets go to some results


We can Project that Hillary Clinton will win the state of Vermont, while Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, Virginia are too close to call. In the Senate race  we can project Vermont for Senator Patrick Leahy,   South Carolina for Tim Scott, Kentucky for Rand Paul, Indiana and Georgia are too close to call. Both Vermont and Indiana’s Governors Races are too close to call

Vermont (100% in)
Clinton 62%
Cruz  25%
Trump 7%
Stein 4%
Johnson 2%
Vermont


Vermont Senate 100% in
Patrick Leahy D 67%
Scott Milne R 33%

Vermont Governor 1% in
Matt Dunne D 45%
Phil Scott R 40%
  Anthony Pollina Prog. 15%

Georgia 1% in
Cruz 57%
Clinton 30%
Trump 10%
Johnson 2%
Stein 1%

Georgia Senate 1% in
Johnny Isakson R 63%
 James F. Barksdale D 35%
  Allen Buckley L 2%

Indiana 1% in
Cruz 50%
Clinton 40%
Trump 8%
Stein 0.8%
Johnson 0.2%



Indian Senate 1% in
Marlin Stutzman R 53%
Baron Hill  D 47%
Indiana Governor 1% in
Mike Pence  R 51%
John R. Gregg D 49%

Kentucky 1% in
Trump 45%
Cruz 35%
Clinton 15%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%

Kentucky Senate 100% in
Rand Paul R 57%
 Jim Gray D 43% in

South Carolina 1% in
Cruz 50%
Clinton 30%
Trump 12%
Johnson 5%
Stein 3%

South Carolina 100% in
Tim Scott R 61%
Joyce Dickerson D 39%

Virginia 1% in
Cruz 55%
Clinton 40%
Trump 10%
Johnson 3%
Stein 2%



Here are some Exit polls
 Vermont Governor
 Phil Scott 49%
Matt Dunne 45%
  Anthony Pollina 16%

Georgia President
Clinton 45%
Cruz 43%
Trump 9%
Johnson 2%
Stein 1%

Georgia Senate
Johnny Isakson 52%   
James F. Barksdale 47%
  Allen Buckley 1%

Kentucky President
Trump 35%
Clinton 33%
Cruz 29%
Johnson 2%
Stein 1%


Indiana President
 Cruz 49%
Clinton 40%
Trump 8%
Johnson 2%
Stein 1%

Indiana Senate
Marlin Stutzman 50%
Baron Hill 50%

Indiana Governor
John R. Gregg 50.2%
Mike Pence 49.8%

South Carolina President
Cruz 50%
Clinton 44%
Trump 5%
Stein 0.8%
Johnson 0.2%

Virginia President
Clinton 49%
Cruz  40%
Trump 5%
Stein 3%
Johnson 3%

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Election Night 2016
 
So a great start for Clinton, let's get to some more projections

It is 7:30 on the east coast we are going for some projections now


Not the most exciting projections, we project all the following races as too close to call: West Virgina President, West Virginia Govenor, North Carolina President, North Carolina Senate, North Carolina Govenor, Ohio President, Ohio Senate.

Let's look at the early numbers
First West Virginia
1% in
Trump 48%
Cruz 30%
Clinton 19%
Johnson 2%
Stein 1%

North Carolina 1% in
Cruz 40%
Clinton 38%
Trump 15%
Johnson 5%
Stein 2%

Ohio 1% in
Clinton 53%
Cruz 40%
Trump 5%
Johnston 1%
Stein 1%

Now to the senate
North Carolina 1% in
Richard Burr R54%
Deborah Ross D46%

Ohio Senate 1% in
Ted Strickland D61%
Rob Portman R39%

Now the governors races
West Virginia 1% in
Bill Cole R55%
Jeff Kessler D45%

North Carolina
Pat McCory R52%
Roy CooperD 48%

Let's look at the exit polls
West Virginia
Trump 42%
Cruz 33%
Clinton 22%
Stein 2%
Johnson 1%

Governor
Cole 53%
Kessler 47%

Ohio
President
Clinton 49%
Cruz 40%
Trump 7%
Johnson 3%
Stein 1%

Senate
Strickland 52%
Portland 48%

North Carolina
Cruz 43%
Clinton 42%
Trump 10%
Stein 3%
Johnston 2%

Senate
Burr 51%
Ross 49%

Governor
Cooper 51%
MCCory 49%

[Pragmatic Conservative]

7:47 PM


We Can Project that Ted Cruz will cary South Carolina
10% in
South Carolina
Cruz  48% Clinton 37% Trump 10% Johnson 3% Stein 2%

100% in
Cruz 46% Clinton 40% Trump 11% Johnson 2% Stein 1%
Lets update some of our other races

Georgia Senate 7% in
Johnny Isakson R 61%
 James F. Barksdale D 37%
  Allen Buckley L 2%

Georgia President  7% in
Cruz 54%
Clinton 32%
Trump 10%
Johnson 2%
Stein 2%

Indiana 10% in
Cruz 47%
Clinton 43%
Trump 8%
Stein 0.8%
Johnson 0.2%

Indian Senate 10% in
Marlin Stutzman R 52%
Baron Hill D 48%

Indiana Governor 10% in
Mike Pence R 50.7%
John R. Gregg D 49.3%

Kentucky President  10% in
Trump 43%
Cruz 33%
Clinton 20%
Johnson 3%
Stein 1%

Virginia 10% in
Cruz 52%
Clinton 43%
Trump 4%
Johnson 0.7%
Stein 0.3%

[NHI]

This is great!

[Pragmatic Conservative]

This is great!

Thanks!

[Pragmatic Conservative]

It is now 5 ET and polls have now closed in much of the east cost. Here are some Projections  


We can Project Alabama,Mississippi, Tennessee  Oklahoma, and Indiana from earlier   for Ted Cruz, meanwhile we can project DC, Delaware, New Jersey , Maryland, Connecticut, Illinois  and Massachusetts for Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile Main, NH,  Missouri Pennsylvania are too close to call. Florida is too early to call because polls in part of the state close at 6 ET.  

In the Senate we can make the following calls Alabama for Richard Shelby,  Maryland for   Donna Edwards,  , Connecticut for   Richard Blumenthal. Illinois, Missouri, Oklahoma Pennsylvania and NH are to close to call. Florida is too early to call because polls in part of the state close at 6 ET.  
In the Governors races we can call Delaware for John Carney,and Missouri and NH are too close to call

Let's look at some live numbers

Alabama President-100% in
Cruz 52%
Clinton 40%
Trump 5%
Johnson 2%
Stein 1%

Alabama Senate 100% in
Richard Shelby-R 61%
Ron Crumpton-D 39%

Mississippi President 100% in
Cruz 50%
Clinton 40%
Trump 6%
Johnson 3%
Stein 1%

Tennessee President
Cruz 51%
Clinton 41%
Trump 5%
Stein 2%
Johnson 1%

Indiana President 20% in
Cruz 48.5%
Clinton 42%
Trump 5.5%
Johnson 3%
Stein 1%

Indiana President 100% in
Cruz 49%
Clinton 41%
Trump 7%
Johnson 2%
Stein 1%

Oklahoma President 100% in
Cruz 54%
Clinton 42%
Trump 4%

Oklahoma Senate 1% in
James Lankford R 56.5%
Brad Henry D 43.5%

Washington DC President 100% in
Clinton 90%
Cruz 5%
Trump 4%
Stein 0.7%
Johnson 0.3%

Delaware President 100% in
Clinton 59%
Cruz 32%
Trump 5%
Stein 2%
Johnson 1%

Delaware Governor 100% in
 John Carney D 57%
Colin Bonini R 43%

New Jersey President 100% in
Clinton 57%
Cruz 35%
Trump 6%
Stein 1.5%
Johnson 0.5%

Maryland President 100% in
Clinton 58%
Cruz 37%
Trump 4%
Stein 0.6%
Johnson 0.4%

Maryland Senate 100% in
Donna Edwards D 58%
Kathy Szeliga R 42%

Connecticut President 100% in
Clinton 57%
Cruz 34%
Trump 6%
Johnson 2%
Stein 1%

Connecticut Senate 100% in
Richard Blumenthal D 57%
Dan Carter R 43%

Massachusetts President 100% in
 Clinton 58%
Cruz 30%
Trump 7%
Stein 4%
Johnson 1%

Illinois President-100% in
Clinton 52%
Cruz 35%
Trump 10%
Stein 2%
Johnson 1%

Illinois Senate 1% in
Mark Kirk 55%
Tammy Duckworth 45%

Pennsylvania President 1% in
Clinton 45%
Cruz 40%
Trump 12%
Stein 2%
Johnson 1%

Pennsylvania Senate 1% in
Joe Sestak D53%
Pat Toomey R 47%

Main At large  President 1% in
Clinton 40%
Cruz 38%
Trump 10%
Stein 8%
Johnson 4%

Main 1st District 1% in
Clinton 57%
Cruz 30%
Trump 9%
Johnson 3%
Stein 1%

Main 2end District 1% in
Clinton 39%
Cruz 35%
Trump 13%
Stein 7%
Johnson 6%

NH President 1% in
Clinton 63%
Cruz 25%
Trump 9%
Stein 2%
Johnson 1%

NH Senate 1% in
Maggie Hassan D 61%
Kelly Ayotte R39%

NH Governor 1% in
Colin Van Ostern D 63%
Chris Sununu R 37%

Missouri President 1% in
Cruz 50%
Clinton 30%
Trump 15%
Stein 3%
Johnson 2%

Missouri Senate 1% in
Roy Blunt R 60%
Jason Kander D 40%


Missouri Governor 1% in
Chris Koster R 55%
Peter Kinder D 45%


Florida President 1% in
Clinton 45%
Cruz 40%
Trump 10%
Stein 3%
Johnson 2%

Florida Senate 1% in
Patrick Murphy D 53%
Carlos López-Cantera R 47%

[Pragmatic Conservative]

(I will post maps after the 9PM Projections)
8:30 ET


We can Project both key Arkansas races, The President race for Ted Cruz and the Senate race for John Boozman

Arkansas President 100% in
Cruz 50%
Clinton 42%
Trump 6%

Arkansas Senate 100% in
John Boozman 57%
Conner Eldridge 43%



It is 9PM ET and we can make the following Projections for President: Louisiana,Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, Nebraska and its 1, 3,4,and 5th Districts, Texas, Minnesota, Michigan, Rhode Island, New Mexico and New York. From earlier we can call West Virginia for Trump, and Ohio for Clinton. Arizona and Colorado are Too Close To Call  

For The Senate we can call Kansas for Jerry Moran, North Dakota for John Hoeven, South Dakota for John Thune, From Earlier we can call Oklahoma for James Lankford, and Georgia for Johnny Isakson.Colorado, Arizona, Louisiana are to close to call, (but will go to a runoff, with two Republicans). New York is too early to call, we expect Chuck Schumer to win closely, but we will hold off on an initial call as third party candidate  Zephyr Teachout is outperforming are exit polls.

In the Governors race we can project the West Virginia Governors race for Bill Cole, are first pickup of the evening.

Lets look at some numbers
Louisiana President 100%
Cruz 50%
Clinton 40%
Trump 7%
Johnson 2%
Stein 1%

Louisiana Senate (Jungle) 100% in
John Neely Kennedy R 35% (advance to Runoff)
Joseph Cao 30% R (advance to Runoff)

Wyoming-President 100% in
Cruz 55%
Clinton 35%
Trump 6%
Johnson 3%
Stein 1%

North Dakota President 100% in
Cruz 53%
Clinton 33%
Trump 10%
Johnson 3%
Stein 1%

South Dakota President 100% in
Cruz 54%
Clinton 30%
Trump 9%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%