2000: Powell (R) vs Gore (D)

[Higgs]

Who wins, what would the map look like?

I think Powell wins but I'm not sure he wins back the southern states like Bush did.

[President Johnson]

Due to his appeal to blacks, Powell does better than Dubya.

General Collin Powell (R-NY)/Governor George W. Bush (R-TX): 294 EV. (48.99%)
Vice President Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Jospeh Lieberman (D-CT): 244 EV. (47.18%)

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

In 1996 Buchanan threatened to launch a third party run if Dole selects a pro-choice running mate. I imagine a serious rebelion if the nominee is pro-choice himself. Probably enough to cancel any other gains Powell would've made.

Also, the race factor. The main reason Bobby Jindal lost a close 2003 Louisiana election was the fact that many Louisiana Republicans were not ready to vote for a non-white candidate. I can see Powell having similar problem.

[President Johnson]

In 1996 Buchanan threatened to launch a third party run if Dole selects a pro-choice running mate. I imagine a serious rebelion if the nominee is pro-choice himself. Probably enough to cancel any other gains Powell would've made.

Also, the race factor. The main reason Bobby Jindal lost a close 2003 Louisiana election was the fact that many Louisiana Republicans were not ready to vote for a non-white candidate. I can see Powell having similar problem.

Well, he came pretty close to win it, although he was very young with not that much experience.

[Kingpoleon]

278: Powell/McCain: 50.5%
260: Gore/Graham: 47.4%

[Sir Mohamed]

Powell loses under the real circumstances. I think a black man would have been only elected, if the conditions for his party were favorable. He may have picked up some African American votes, but not enough to win the presidency.

✓ Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)/Senator Joe Lieberman (D-CT): 313 EV. (49.7%)
General Collin Powell (R-NY)/Governor George W. Bush (R-TX): 225 EV. (47.5%)

[P123]

No way does Powell win Tennessee, WV, Arkansas, or Louisiana lol. Louisiana voted down Jindal basically because of race in 2000, no way their voting for a Pro-Choice Black even if he was a Republican.

Gore wins, but the map looks a bit different. Honestly Gore would proabably do better in the South.

[HisGrace]

Remember, Clinton did pretty well in the South in both 92 and 96 and there were a lot of white southerners who liked him. The South was a lot more competitive in 2000 than in a lot of the subsequent elections, particularly in Clinton's home state of Arkansas and Gore's home state of Tennessee. A black guy on the ticket probably would have depressed white conservative turnout in the South resulting in Gore having a similar performance in the South to Clinton in 92/96, and the rest of the map staying the same. Gore wins.

[Devout Centrist]

Interesting scenario, but I think Powell has a solid chance to win, not in the least of which is due to his high favorability. If he selects a solidly conservative running mate, he could unite the party and minimize the damage in the South. This, along with Ralph Nader, gives Gore a much harder time competing in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.

On the other hand, Powell would probably lose several southern states, depending on who he picks.

So, here's my take on what could happen:

Powell/Danforth (50.1%)
Gore/Lieberman (46.5%)
Nader/LaDuke (2.4%)
Buchanan/Foster (~1%)

Gore edges out Powell in Iowa because of depressed conservative turnout. The same is true for that in several southern states and West Virginia. This is somewhat remedied by Powell's selection of conservative John Danforth from Missouri, giving him an excellent chance to win the state.

Because of Nader's distortionary effect, Gore narrowly loses Pennsylvania and Michigan. Powell improved greatly with the African American vote, but does not win it outright.