What % will Cruz get in New York?

[Lyin' Steve]

Just watched the first ten minutes of a Trump speech in Long Island.  He knows exactly what he's doing here.  Talked about going golfing at the local golf course "you all know what I'm talking about.  It's good to be home."  Crowd went crazy.  Hammered Cruz for "when he started lecturing me on New York values, like we're no good.  Like we're no good!  And I started telling him about the bravery at the World Trade Center, of our police, our firemen, of everybody, you better believe it!  So I looked at him and started talking about our incredible police, our incredible firefighters, our incredible people, our unbelievable construction workers, who could have rebuilt that hole, there's nothing like it in this country!  The bravery of it was incredible, we all know people who died, and I've got this guy standing there across from me talking about New York values, with scorn in his face, with hatred in his heart... so folks, I think you can forget about him.  fuhgeddaboutim!"  Interrupted time after time with crowd cheers and "USA! USA! USA!", ended with "Lyin' Ted!" chant.  He just kept going.

Every minute was another phrase of praise for New York, Trump identified himself with the state again and again.  "They like me because I'm a straight shooter, like New York.  New Yorkers, we shoot straight here."  This is how you win a state, folks.  Between that, Cruz's "New York values" and Trump knowing exactly how to play it, and Kasich's increasing irrelevance, I would put my money on Trump getting over 50 or even over 60% here.

[dax00]

Cruz is gonna get no more than 21% in New York.

[Donnie]

Max. 29%....http://nypost.com/2016/04/06/ted-cruzs-campaign-stop-in-the-bronx-is-a-complete-dud/

[YaBoyNY]

I don't think he'll even pass 20%.

[Vosem]

New York can't stop the rising tide of Cruz.

[NHI]

No higher than 20%

[Young Conservative]

He will get over 20 for sure. These people clearly are ignoring the polling and the fact that it is very strictly closed primary with the last date to register months ago

[Meclazine for Israel]

Cruz had his home state advantage. Now it's.Trumps turn.

Trump 60%
Kasich 29%
Cruz 11%

[TDAS04]

18% is my guess.

[Murica!]

Most Republicans I know support Trump, 3 support Kasich and then theres the one mentally ill* sh**t head from Texas who supports Cruz.

*I mean mentally ill seriously, I'm not just insulting him for supporting Cruz.

[PeteB]

Probably 15-20%, mostly upstate. As for NYC, this front page says it all:

[President Johnson]

25% at best. 15% at worst. I say around 20%. He will end up third behind Kasich.

[Fargobison]

20 seems like a good guess.

[Xing]

17-19%

[Maxwell]

Probably around 20-25%, as someone else pointed out it is a closed primary.

[Wisconsin+17]

I think he can get 30. Polls consistently underestimate Cruz by about 5 or so.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Probably around 20-25%, as someone else pointed out it is a closed primary.

otoh aren't there potential Cruz voters who won't be able to vote in the GOP primary b/c they are registered with the NY Conservative Party?

[YaBoyNY]

He will get over 20 for sure. These people clearly are ignoring the polling and the fact that it is very strictly closed primary with the last date to register months ago

yeah i don't actually live here and know better or anything

it being a closed primary is irrelevant, it's possibly but unlikely for him to get over 20% because he just doesn't have many supporters here at all

[Stranger in a strange land]

I think he can get 30. Polls consistently underestimate Cruz by about 5 or so.

There are few Evangelicals or Movement Conservatives in NY though. The combination of dying white factory towns upstate, Trump's longstanding ties to the state, and lack of evangelicals, and the fact that the state isn't particularly religious in general, mean that it's pretty much the perfect state for him. My guess is that Cruz will probably get 25% or so.

[Eraserhead]

He might do alright upstate but anywhere else, forget it. I'd be surprised if he beats Kasich here tbh.

[Kingpoleon]

If he's really NeverTrump, he should not campaign here. What CD will he win?

[cinyc]

If he's really NeverTrump, he should not campaign here. What CD will he win?

It's not a question of winning a CD.  It's a question of keeping Trump below 50% in as many CDs as possible and coming in second to pick up a delegate.  Cruz and Kasich are more likely to keep Trump under 50% together than either of them alone.  Because of that, the math works best when both Kasich and Cruz work to win New York delegates.

[Maxwell]

If he's really NeverTrump, he should not campaign here. What CD will he win?

We all know he's not - he's #NeverTrump when it helps his cause but he will go out of his way to nuke Kasich if that's what it takes.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Less than 25%