If Trump doesn't win the Republican nomination, does he run a write-in campaign?
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  If Trump doesn't win the Republican nomination, does he run a write-in campaign?
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Question: If Trump doesn't win the Republican nomination, does he run a write-in campaign?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
#3
No, but he still gets >100k votes
 
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Total Voters: 46

Author Topic: If Trump doesn't win the Republican nomination, does he run a write-in campaign?  (Read 2543 times)
Orser67
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« on: April 07, 2016, 02:32:02 AM »
« edited: April 07, 2016, 03:00:50 AM by Orser67 »

Obviously it's a question inviting speculation, but at this point I think that there is a)a serious chance that Trump doesn't win the nomination and b)a serious chance that a Trump write-in campaign has an effect on the 2016 election. According to this article, 43 states allow for write-in candidates, and according to this Daily Kos Elections blog, the seven states that don't are Hawaii, Nevada, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

Here's a map that shows the states he could target. States that don't allow write-in campaigns are in grey (except Hawaii), while states that gave over 55% of their vote to Obama are in red. Utah is in blue because Trump seems to have a unique lack of appeal in that state.

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Derpist
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« Reply #1 on: April 07, 2016, 02:36:18 AM »

No, because Trump isn't stupid. He's a dealmaker. He knows he can't win a write-in campaign. So he'll use his leverage to extract as much as he can out of the GOP establishment.
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Lord_Bubbington
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« Reply #2 on: April 07, 2016, 02:50:13 AM »

No, because he can still run as an independent in a majority of states. Most states final deadlines for ballot access are after the convention. If it becomes clear he won't be the nominee earlier, he could get on the ballot in even more places. If it looks like the RNC might deny him the nomination, he will probably start filling in the early states as a threat to the delegates. Ballotpedia has a list of deadlines, btw.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #3 on: April 07, 2016, 03:01:11 AM »

No, because he can still run as an independent in a majority of states. Most states final deadlines for ballot access are after the convention. If it becomes clear he won't be the nominee earlier, he could get on the ballot in even more places. If it looks like the RNC might deny him the nomination, he will probably start filling in the early states as a threat to the delegates. Ballotpedia has a list of deadlines, btw.

His optimal course of action is to run as an independent in some states and as a write-in candidate in some others, depending on the logistics.
For example, it's almost impossible to run as an independent in Texas but it's actually pretty easy to run as write-in. In some other state the opposite might be true.
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SteveRogers
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« Reply #4 on: April 07, 2016, 03:10:54 AM »

No, because he can still run as an independent in a majority of states. Most states final deadlines for ballot access are after the convention. If it becomes clear he won't be the nominee earlier, he could get on the ballot in even more places. If it looks like the RNC might deny him the nomination, he will probably start filling in the early states as a threat to the delegates. Ballotpedia has a list of deadlines, btw.

His optimal course of action is to run as an independent in some states and as a write-in candidate in some others, depending on the logistics.
For example, it's almost impossible to run as an independent in Texas but it's actually pretty easy to run as write-in. In some other state the opposite might be true.

The Texas sore loser law bars write-in campaigns too. Trump absolutely cannot run in Texas.
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Orser67
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« Reply #5 on: April 07, 2016, 03:36:40 AM »

No, because he can still run as an independent in a majority of states. Most states final deadlines for ballot access are after the convention. If it becomes clear he won't be the nominee earlier, he could get on the ballot in even more places. If it looks like the RNC might deny him the nomination, he will probably start filling in the early states as a threat to the delegates. Ballotpedia has a list of deadlines, btw.

His optimal course of action is to run as an independent in some states and as a write-in candidate in some others, depending on the logistics.
For example, it's almost impossible to run as an independent in Texas but it's actually pretty easy to run as write-in. In some other state the opposite might be true.

The Texas sore loser law bars write-in campaigns too. Trump absolutely cannot run in Texas.

He could mount a legal campaign to try to overturn the sore loser law. According to "minor political party activist" Richard Winger: sore loser laws can’t apply to the presidential race because people who cast ballots in the general election aren't voting for a candidate, they're choosing electors — members of the Electoral College — who have pledged to support that same candidate.

I'm imagining Trump's legal challenge going all the way to the Supreme Court, which in turn deadlocks 4-4.
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SteveRogers
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« Reply #6 on: April 07, 2016, 04:51:38 AM »

No, because he can still run as an independent in a majority of states. Most states final deadlines for ballot access are after the convention. If it becomes clear he won't be the nominee earlier, he could get on the ballot in even more places. If it looks like the RNC might deny him the nomination, he will probably start filling in the early states as a threat to the delegates. Ballotpedia has a list of deadlines, btw.

His optimal course of action is to run as an independent in some states and as a write-in candidate in some others, depending on the logistics.
For example, it's almost impossible to run as an independent in Texas but it's actually pretty easy to run as write-in. In some other state the opposite might be true.

The Texas sore loser law bars write-in campaigns too. Trump absolutely cannot run in Texas.

He could mount a legal campaign to try to overturn the sore loser law. According to "minor political party activist" Richard Winger: sore loser laws can’t apply to the presidential race because people who cast ballots in the general election aren't voting for a candidate, they're choosing electors — members of the Electoral College — who have pledged to support that same candidate.

I'm imagining Trump's legal challenge going all the way to the Supreme Court, which in turn deadlocks 4-4.

There's certainly an argument to be made there. There is of course no Constitutional principle that would compel that result. It's an issue of statutory interpretation that will vary from state to state depending on how the sore loser law is drafted. The argument has been tried before in federal court. It worked for John Anderson in at least one state in 1980 but not so much for Gary Johnson in Michigan in 2012. Trump could certainly try it. However, I find it highly unlikely that the Supreme Court would have any interest in taking up that particular claim as it's really just a state law issue of statutory interpretation.

Now I personally think there are First and Fourteenth Amendment grounds for challenging the constitutionality of sore loser laws, but the 1974 Supreme Court case Storer v. Brown seems to say I'm wrong.   
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SillyAmerican
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« Reply #7 on: April 07, 2016, 04:52:45 AM »

No, because Trump isn't stupid. He's a dealmaker. He knows he can't win a write-in campaign. So he'll use his leverage to extract as much as he can out of the GOP establishment.

This.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #8 on: April 07, 2016, 07:47:00 AM »

Somewhat tangential question: whatever happened to the Reform Party?
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #9 on: April 07, 2016, 08:10:37 AM »

No, because Trump isn't stupid. He's a dealmaker. He knows he can't win a write-in campaign. So he'll use his leverage to extract as much as he can out of the GOP establishment.

This.

But what does he actually want out of the GOP Establishment? He certainly doesn't strike me as the type who would want to be VP, and changes to the Platform are effectively meaningless because the only people who pay attention to platforms nowadays are Atlas-type political nerds (well, and also Republican political operatives, if they think they can gain political mileage if the Democratic platform fails to mention Culture War Totems like God, Jerusalem, or prayer, but even those attacks don't tend to gain much traction). There's also the fact that Trump has gone scorched earth against Cruz and I don't see either of them making up at the convention.
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PeteB
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« Reply #10 on: April 07, 2016, 08:15:27 AM »

No, because Trump isn't stupid. He's a dealmaker. He knows he can't win a write-in campaign. So he'll use his leverage to extract as much as he can out of the GOP establishment.

This.

But what does he actually want out of the GOP Establishment? He certainly doesn't strike me as the type who would want to be VP, and changes to the Platform are effectively meaningless because the only people who pay attention to platforms nowadays are Atlas-type political nerds (well, and also Republican political operatives, if they think they can gain political mileage if the Democratic platform fails to mention Culture War Totems like God, Jerusalem, or prayer, but even those attacks don't tend to gain much traction). There's also the fact that Trump has gone scorched earth against Cruz and I don't see either of them making up at the convention.

The same things he has been chasing all his life - money and power. Trump is the ultimate insider and even though he can take things personally at times, imagining a scenario where he p.sses against the wind and puts Trump Corp at risk is impossible.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #11 on: April 07, 2016, 08:23:01 AM »

No, because Trump isn't stupid. He's a dealmaker. He knows he can't win a write-in campaign. So he'll use his leverage to extract as much as he can out of the GOP establishment.

This.

But what does he actually want out of the GOP Establishment? He certainly doesn't strike me as the type who would want to be VP, and changes to the Platform are effectively meaningless because the only people who pay attention to platforms nowadays are Atlas-type political nerds (well, and also Republican political operatives, if they think they can gain political mileage if the Democratic platform fails to mention Culture War Totems like God, Jerusalem, or prayer, but even those attacks don't tend to gain much traction). There's also the fact that Trump has gone scorched earth against Cruz and I don't see either of them making up at the convention.

The same things he has been chasing all his life - money and power. Trump is the ultimate insider and even though he can take things personally at times, imagining a scenario where he p.sses against the wind and puts Trump Corp at risk is impossible.

Trump Corp won't be at risk no matter what. He's famously litigious and will fight any future harassment from a Cruz administration or a Republican congress as much as he can. He's also incredibly thin-skinned and prides himself in never backing down from a fight. When all is said and done, either he'll be the nominee, or he'll storm out of the convention and his supporters will riot.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #12 on: April 07, 2016, 08:49:15 AM »

i dont know what "write-in" means.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #13 on: April 07, 2016, 11:21:58 AM »


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PeteB
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« Reply #14 on: April 07, 2016, 11:27:17 AM »

No, because Trump isn't stupid. He's a dealmaker. He knows he can't win a write-in campaign. So he'll use his leverage to extract as much as he can out of the GOP establishment.

This.

But what does he actually want out of the GOP Establishment? He certainly doesn't strike me as the type who would want to be VP, and changes to the Platform are effectively meaningless because the only people who pay attention to platforms nowadays are Atlas-type political nerds (well, and also Republican political operatives, if they think they can gain political mileage if the Democratic platform fails to mention Culture War Totems like God, Jerusalem, or prayer, but even those attacks don't tend to gain much traction). There's also the fact that Trump has gone scorched earth against Cruz and I don't see either of them making up at the convention.

The same things he has been chasing all his life - money and power. Trump is the ultimate insider and even though he can take things personally at times, imagining a scenario where he p.sses against the wind and puts Trump Corp at risk is impossible.

Trump Corp won't be at risk no matter what. He's famously litigious and will fight any future harassment from a Cruz administration or a Republican congress as much as he can. He's also incredibly thin-skinned and prides himself in never backing down from a fight. When all is said and done, either he'll be the nominee, or he'll storm out of the convention and his supporters will riot.

Don't take this the wrong way but, having worked in property development for a while, I believe that the potential risk to Trump Corporation is substantial, should Trump "freak out" and challenge everyone.  There are a hundred things (regulatory, municipal, state, federal, financial, legal) that could "go wrong" for a property developer and delay or stop a development.  Any one of them represents a potentially serious financial loss and may challenge even the most well financed operations.  Secondly, a lot of property development in NYC relies heavily on established relationships with various stakeholders - Trump's definitely does, probably more than most.  Those relationships would start turning sour or simply vaporize, if Trump was seen as vindictive and a sore loser.
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Orser67
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« Reply #15 on: April 07, 2016, 03:12:09 PM »

Personally, I think if Trump lost the nomination, he would run an unofficial write-in campaign designed to sabotage the Republican Party. He wouldn't have any chance of winning, but he would be able to semi-campaign for the remainder of the general election and he would have the chance to stick it to the Republican Party.

However, I find it highly unlikely that the Supreme Court would have any interest in taking up that particular claim as it's really just a state law issue of statutory interpretation.

Now I personally think there are First and Fourteenth Amendment grounds for challenging the constitutionality of sore loser laws, but the 1974 Supreme Court case Storer v. Brown seems to say I'm wrong.   

Perhaps, but Williams v. Rhodes did set the precedent of the court stepping into protect independent ballot access on the grounds of the Equal Protection Clause. I also wonder if an an analogy could be drawn to U.S. Term Limits, Inc. v. Thornton, when the court struck down an Arkansas law preventing ballot access for Congressional candidates who had served three terms in Congress. I'm not saying that the court will overrule Storer, but if they did take up the case, I don't think it would be totally unjustified in precedent.
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SteveRogers
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« Reply #16 on: April 07, 2016, 03:16:59 PM »

Somewhat tangential question: whatever happened to the Reform Party?

Well Pat Buchanan basically single-handedly destroyed it in 2000 when he got the nomination and tried to inject a bunch of social issues into its platform. Now from what I can tell it's basically just a couple of groups of a dozen or so people who meet up in a hotel every four years to sue each other over whose the real Reform Party.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #17 on: April 07, 2016, 04:28:54 PM »

If he were, his ticket and the Rep ticket would lose to the Dem's in a landslide.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #18 on: April 07, 2016, 04:37:19 PM »

In many states, in order to vote for a "write-in" Presidential candidate effectively, you have to write in the names of the particular electors you are voting for.  This is an insurmountable barrier to most write-in candidates.  Some states allow for write-in slates, but the slates need petitions to get on the ballot, and that's not easy.

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Nym90
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« Reply #19 on: April 07, 2016, 04:44:14 PM »
« Edited: April 07, 2016, 04:45:57 PM by Nym90 »

I wonder if those state laws prohibiting counting write in votes would survive a court challenge. Rather doubt it as it's clearly disenfranchisement of the people's will if a write in candidate wins a state and it's invalidated by these.

Cruz has a convenient name for a write in candidate, too. Just sayin'.
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SteveRogers
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« Reply #20 on: April 07, 2016, 06:45:00 PM »

I wonder if those state laws prohibiting counting write in votes would survive a court challenge. Rather doubt it as it's clearly disenfranchisement of the people's will if a write in candidate wins a state and it's invalidated by these.

Cruz has a convenient name for a write in candidate, too. Just sayin'.

I don't know the case off the top of my head, but if I recall correctly the Supreme Court has already upheld a state's right not to allow write-in votes.
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RR1997
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« Reply #21 on: April 07, 2016, 07:00:33 PM »

Trump wouldn't run a write-in campaign. He'd just whine like he usually does and would become completely irrelevant within a month.
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Wisconsin+17
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« Reply #22 on: April 07, 2016, 07:15:22 PM »

I don't see him running if he loses. He'll find other things to do.
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MK
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« Reply #23 on: April 07, 2016, 08:41:45 PM »

He'd basically help Hillary but attacking ted dragging him into a muddy fight while Hillary wines and dines .   

Fyi.. Cruzs unfavorables are 60%   it will be even higher if hes looked at like the guy who stole the nomination from the other guy.  Trump really has the gop by the balls win or lose.
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