April 6th Sabato Senate Ratings Map

[Nyvin]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-governor-2016-several-ratings-move-toward-democrats/

Colorado's rating kinda surprises me.   Pennsylvania and Ohio are expected though,  they really are tossups.

Grassley is getting what he deserves.

[Xing]

I'm not sure I'd move PA to toss-up just yet, though it could end up there eventually. If his model is based on the idea that coattails will be strong, it would make sense to move NV to Lean D, and I wouldn't move MO down to Lean R. Otherwise, I agree with these changes.

[MT Treasurer]

Sabato also thinks that NH is more likely to vote GOP than PA. His ratings are DISMISSED.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Maybe if Trump were the nominee.  But, since he won't be, move every race one level to the right, and it looks about right.

[Nyvin]

Sabato also thinks that NH is more likely to vote GOP than PA. His ratings are DISMISSED.

If you look at polls they're all pretty accurate.

[BuckeyeNut]

Feels good to be a liberal Democrat in the Midwest.

[Orser67]

I'd keep Missouri Likely R and move Louisiana to Safe R, but otherwise this map is perfect, imo. I think Sabato is right about the state of the presidential race and presidential coattails.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ It's not really safe to go all in on LA staying R given the crowded field and what happened in the governor's race.

[/]

Especially happy about Ohio, Sabato's rating there was bugging me for a while.

[Illiniwek]

Feels good to be a liberal Democrat in the Midwest.

[Nyvin]

Maybe if Trump were the nominee.  But, since he won't be, move every race one level to the right, and it looks about right.

Nope!  This is actually Sabato's map if Trump is the GOP nominee:



http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-trumpmare-can-the-republicans-save-the-senate/

LOL!!

[BuckeyeNut]

^ It's not really safe to go all in on LA staying R given the crowded field and what happened in the governor's race.

Democrats didn't really get any good recruits for the Senate race. It's just as likely LA ends up with 2 Republicans in the general as CA ends up with two Democrats?

[Orser67]

Whoever wins the Republican primary should be a far better candidate than Vitter. Also, I think that Louisiana is much more likely to vote Democratic in a state election than in a federal election. Louisiana may not be 100% safe, but imo the "Safe" rating means that there's a >95% chance that the party wins the race.

[Ebsy]

^ It's not really safe to go all in on LA staying R given the crowded field and what happened in the governor's race.

Democrats didn't really get any good recruits for the Senate race. It's just as likely LA ends up with 2 Republicans in the general as CA ends up with two Democrats?

I remember when a JBE win in Louisiana was just a pipe dream. What a race that was.

[BuckeyeNut]

^ It's not really safe to go all in on LA staying R given the crowded field and what happened in the governor's race.

Democrats didn't really get any good recruits for the Senate race. It's just as likely LA ends up with 2 Republicans in the general as CA ends up with two Democrats?

I remember when a JBE win in Louisiana was just a pipe dream. What a race that was.

That's fair, but this is a bigger pipe dream. JBE just seems like a better candidate than the two (D) recruits LA found for this cycle.

And personally, I thought JBE was going to do better than Conway for most of 2015, while the opposite opinion was far more popular.

[Young Conservative]

Sabato also thinks that NH is more likely to vote GOP than PA. His ratings are DISMISSED.

If you look at polls they're all pretty accurate.

I agree with the map, even though I would move IA to Safe R, IN and OH to Leans R, FL to Leans D and IL (and maybe WI) to Tossup. IL is definitely not more likely to flip than NH or FL.  

Florida isn't flipping lol and neither is New Hampshire

[Zioneer]

Sabato also thinks that NH is more likely to vote GOP than PA. His ratings are DISMISSED.

If you look at polls they're all pretty accurate.

I agree with the map, even though I would move IA to Safe R, IN and OH to Leans R, FL to Leans D and IL (and maybe WI) to Tossup. IL is definitely not more likely to flip than NH or FL.  

Florida isn't flipping lol and neither is New Hampshire

You want us to quote you on that in November?

[Virginiá]

Florida isn't flipping lol and neither is New Hampshire

We don't even know who the candidates are going to be, but considering Grayson's ethics probe problem, among other issues, means Patrick Murphy on the Democratic side and probably Jolly on the Republican side. Given the polls we have, Murphy is ahead.

I'm not saying Murphy will win, but rather that there is no reason to think this is a Republican hold. This election may also come down to who wins the state in the presidential election. However, at the very least, it's a toss-up.

[Maxwell]

Florida isn't flipping lol and neither is New Hampshire

We don't even know who the candidates are going to be, but considering Grayson's ethics probe problem, among other issues, means Patrick Murphy on the Democratic side and probably Jolly on the Republican side. Given the polls we have, Murphy is ahead.

I'm not saying Murphy will win, but rather that there is no reason to think this is a Republican hold. This election may also come down to who wins the state in the presidential election. However, at the very least, it's a toss-up.

So far it doesn't seem to matter to actual Democratic voters in Florida - Murphy hasn't pulled ahead in any real way. In fact, the last PPP showed Grayson, not Murphy, up 33-32. It's getting to the point where even Murphy makes it out of a primary with Grayson he'll be definable enough to where Republicans take the seat even with a weaker nominee (all of the potential candidates seem B-League, but I'd actually wager DeSantis as the strongest  of the three major ones, with Lopez-Cantera being obviously the weakest and David Jolly being massively over-valued).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would agree on Ohio if Jeb was nominee. Let's not underestimate Strickland and perhaps a wave in Nov. Trump is weak in Appalachian

[windjammer]

Florida isn't flipping lol and neither is New Hampshire

We don't even know who the candidates are going to be, but considering Grayson's ethics probe problem, among other issues, means Patrick Murphy on the Democratic side and probably Jolly on the Republican side. Given the polls we have, Murphy is ahead.

I'm not saying Murphy will win, but rather that there is no reason to think this is a Republican hold. This election may also come down to who wins the state in the presidential election. However, at the very least, it's a toss-up.

So far it doesn't seem to matter to actual Democratic voters in Florida - Murphy hasn't pulled ahead in any real way. In fact, the last PPP showed Grayson, not Murphy, up 33-32. It's getting to the point where even Murphy makes it out of a primary with Grayson he'll be definable enough to where Republicans take the seat even with a weaker nominee (all of the potential candidates seem B-League, but I'd actually wager DeSantis as the strongest  of the three major ones, with Lopez-Cantera being obviously the weakest and David Jolly being massively over-valued).

You're quoting only a push poll that was made by a group supporting Grayson (the 33-32).

In fact, most of the recent polls have shown Murphy leading. Grayson is a terrible campaigner and he is definitely the underdog for the FL democratic primary, especially with all of his problems.

[Maxwell]

Florida isn't flipping lol and neither is New Hampshire

We don't even know who the candidates are going to be, but considering Grayson's ethics probe problem, among other issues, means Patrick Murphy on the Democratic side and probably Jolly on the Republican side. Given the polls we have, Murphy is ahead.

I'm not saying Murphy will win, but rather that there is no reason to think this is a Republican hold. This election may also come down to who wins the state in the presidential election. However, at the very least, it's a toss-up.

So far it doesn't seem to matter to actual Democratic voters in Florida - Murphy hasn't pulled ahead in any real way. In fact, the last PPP showed Grayson, not Murphy, up 33-32. It's getting to the point where even Murphy makes it out of a primary with Grayson he'll be definable enough to where Republicans take the seat even with a weaker nominee (all of the potential candidates seem B-League, but I'd actually wager DeSantis as the strongest  of the three major ones, with Lopez-Cantera being obviously the weakest and David Jolly being massively over-valued).

You're quoting only a push poll that was made by a group supporting Grayson (the 33-32).

In fact, most of the recent polls have shown Murphy leading. Grayson is a terrible campaigner and he is definitely the underdog for the FL democratic primary, especially with all of his problems.

Not in any real way - Murphy leading with only 20% of the vote in hand or so is not impressive. I don't know why other democrats are so non-chalant about this.

Grayson has a huge amount of problems yes, but it seems, to me, like he'll get over that because he "seems" genuine. That's something Murphy can't make up no matter how many endorsements he gets.

[BuckeyeNut]

A hedge fund manager for Bernie doesn't sound like a winning primary candidate.

[Maxwell]

A hedge fund manager for Bernie doesn't sound like a winning primary candidate.

And yet Patrick Murphy, thus far, has failed to break out. Grayson is far more likely to turn out his people than Murphy is in a primary, and that matters in these low turnout affairs.

[This account no longer in use.]

Fair enough, but Grayson would be less electable in the general election.