Europe in fifty years

[TB]

What will the European continent be like in 2055, socially, politically, demographically and economically?

[Richard]

What will the European continent be like in 2055, socially, politically, demographically and economically?

Population - most people will either be very old, or very Muslim.  The Muslims are breeding like rabits and Europe seems to let more and more immigrants in from Africa.  The actual Europeans are not interested in sex (or they're just aborting all the babies) and will age a lot.

Economy - a major depression will hit Europe in 20 to 25 years, perhaps sooner.  The welfare state cannot be maintained.  Since the population that actually performs work is ageing and retiring, that is a problem.  Too many will be on welfare, and not enough will work.  I do not know what else to add.  After the depression?  I don't know.

Socially - very Muslim, traditional Muslim values will become more "normal"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[David S]

If they continue their pursuit of socialist principles the countries of Europe will probably be facing financial ruin or at least be experiencing dismal economic performance in 50 years. But there are things which could change that. People can adapt when they see problems coming their way. They can make changes that will improve things. Also improvements in technology and productivity may make it possible for the welfare state to survive.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Again

[Colin]

Again

What did you expect Al?

[Richard]

Al,

Do you agree that your population is ageing quite dramatically?  I can show you that this is true.  It is very easy to trend demographic statistics in actuarial science because it influence insurance rates.

Do you agree that your population is being more and more "foreign?"  Who are those foreigners?  Hell, 10% of the Netherlands is Muslim!  Population growth follows an exponential curve.  You have those Muslims growing at an exponential rate, and you have traditional European population decreasing (exponentially too) and ageing.

The welfare state CANNOT be maintained!  There will simply be not enough money.  Europe already has issues competing their 35 hour work week with India's 35 hour work day.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do you agree that your population is ageing quite dramatically?

No, not really. IIRC the population of some E.U countries are, but you have to be careful to avoid lumping everything together

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Not that I've noticed. Over 90% (I forget the exact figure) of the population of the U.K is white. Minority populations are small, although they're often very concentrated.

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They aren't foreigners. They are citizens. A lot have been here for a long time; the bulk of the Caribbean population came over in the '40's/'50's, the bulk of the Pakistani population following the flooding of Mirpur to build a dam. And so on.

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So? Besides, the Netherlands in't all of Europe. It's probably possible to count the number of LG wards in the U.K with a majority Islamic population with the fingers of two hands. Even Birmingham only has three.

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Most new immigrant populations grow very quickly early on. IIRC the only Islamic group in the U.K that's growing very quickly is Bangladeshis.

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Traditional European population? I don't quite get what you mean by that. Whites perhaps? Which isn't the same thing at all.
I've not really noticed the white population of the U.K declining either.

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No, that's not true. Unless by "welfare state" you mean something else than I do.

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Not true

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Sorry to disapoint you, but I think only France has a 35 hour week. Most of the E.U has a 48 hour week but the U.K has an opt out on that. The problems facing European manufacturing are a lot more complicated than what you assume though.
And there's only 24 hours in a day.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Again

What did you expect Al?

An intelligent, well informed and reasonable discussion

[Richard]

No, not really. IIRC the population of some E.U countries are, but you have to be careful to avoid lumping everything together

I'm talking EU averages.  If you don't see it, you're blind.

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More blindness.  I know that immigration control was a topic in this election.  I also that there are entire villages in the UK under Paki control these days, where English is not the language of choice.

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It was an example.  France is even worse off.

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My line was a quote from the Economist.  And I know that the UK is about to lose its exemption status from the work week law.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I know that immigration control was a topic in this election.

Yes. It almost always is. Not that there's a lot of immigration nowadays; the issue was much bigger in the '60's and '70's. "Rivers of Blood" and all that.

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First off, don't say "Paki". It's the equivilent of "n".
Secondly... I don't know what the hell you're on about. There are NO villages in the U.K that are mostly Pakistani. Not one. There are large Pakistani populations in some inner city areas, especially in the old textiles belt, but that's about it.
Almost all Pakistanis speak good English, btw. The younger ones usually have the local accent.

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Worse off? Explain. And there aren't any religious statistics in France; a stupid law that makes things easier for race baiters who can make up alarmist (and totally wrong) statistics when it suits them.

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So? Doesn't mean it can't be wrong.

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It's a possibility, but not all that likely. Most people here work less than 48hrs anyway.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Did any of you who claim that the Muslims will take over ever take into account that immigration trends are temporary influxes and hardly ever permament?

I'm mostly of Swedish ancestry. How many Swedes are immigrating to the US currently? How many people from any European countries are coming currently? Yet most people in America are of such ancestry.

Furthemore back in the 20s people who were already here (the WASPs and the Germans, etc.) were worried that the incoming immigrants would "take over" them being mostly Irish, Italian, Greek and Eastern European. And they reproduced like rabbits too when they first came. Is that still the case?

Everyone knows what I think of Islam, but all of this nonsense is just an attempt by the right to flaunt their Europhobia.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The thing about LG wards has suddenly intrigued me. Time to have a looksee at what the ONS says, I'm certain it's more than just two hands (that were hyperbole). Non-London it's probably about 15-25 odd wards in all. Note this for wards used in 2003. Some councils have been rewarded and the data isn't up yet.

Wards with over 50% Islamic population

Textile Belt

Pendle: 1 (Whitefield, in central Nelson)

Burnley: 1 (Daneshouse with Stoneyholme, in inner-north Burnley. Pretty much the town's entire Muslim population is in this ward)

Blackburn with Darwen: 3 (Shear Brow, Bastwell, Audley. All in inner-northeast Blackburn)

Oldham: 2 (Coldhurst, Werneth. Both in inner-west Oldham

Bradford: 3 (Toller, University, Bradford Moor. Two in central Bradford, one on the eastern fringe of the city; overspill estates and stuff IIRC)

Midlands

Birmingham: 3 (Sparkbrook, Sparkhill, Small Heath. All in inner-east Birmingham)

Leicester: 1 (Spinney Hills, central Leicester)

Southeast

Luton: 2 (Biscot, Dallow. Both in inner-southcentral Luton)

Outer London: 4 (Spitalfields & Banglatown, Bethnal Green South, Whitechapel, Shadwell. All in Tower Hamlets, 3 in the Bethnal Green & Bow constituency, 2 in Bethnal Green, 2 in Stepney).

TOTAL: 20
In Inner City areas: 19
In Overspill estates etc: 1
In areas with lot's of villages: 0

It's possible that I've missed off a ward or two (in LA's with otherwise small Islamic populations) but I doubt it; it's pretty much certain that with the rewarding in non-London boroughs in 2004 the total with current wards is slightly different.

[Storebought]

The important fact with demographic change is that it takes only a very small population shift to accomplish it.

Back in the late 400s, the Germanic tribes overran the West Roman Empire even though the Teutons never comprised more than 20% of the population, even in Gaul.

Much more recently, in the US, when 6% of a locale's population becomes black, the whites begin to move out. When it reaches 9%, the whites flee in droves. Likewise, in places like Harlem and Compton, when the Spanish-language populations became nonnegligible, the blacks began to flee from those places as well.

The UK has more restrictive laws on that sort of social mobility than the US, so the white flight isn't as apparent. But it does exist, for the same reasons as in the US.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

With a few exceptions minority populations aren't large enough (or growing enough) in the U.K to cause white flight; when minority populations were still growing quickly (back in the '60's and '70's) there was some severe white flight in places (never on the scale of the U.S though) and areas with the worst race relations tend to be wards where the one is over 60% minority while the neighbouring wards much, much lower (ala Burnley). Nowadays *new* white flight it's only happening on a significant scale in parts of London; and even there not as bad as predicted.

[ag]

Secondly... I don't know what the hell you're on about. There are NO villages in the U.K that are mostly Pakistani.

On a semi-joking note, I know one minority stronghold. It's called Westminster. Remember staying there (5 minute walk from Paddington Station) at a friend's place (the guy's a Ukrainian investment banker, lately from New York). "Oh, no. Brits don't live here - it's too expensive for them, they can't afford it. The guy down the hallway is Pakistani. Some relative of Nawaz Sharif, I think. The other neighbour is Korean. So, don't worry."

More seriously, Spain just had an amnesty for illegal immigrants. The total number of applicants from majority Muslim countries was, roughly, 10-20% of the total (that is, of the previously illegal immigrants trying to regularize their status). Among the top 5 origin countries, I think, there was only one Muslim (Morocco). Still, the number of applicants from Ecuador was more than double the number of Moroccans, who were, roughly, on par with Bulgaria or Romania (I am too lazy to check exact numbers).

[opebo]

... will be full of former Americans fleeing theocracy.

Just kidding, they won't be able to get into Europe, they'll all be in Canada or New Zealand.

[DanielX]

Europe will be a mess. Sometime in the 2020s, there will be large-scale riots all over western Europe. There are two possible paths in the future, both dark:

1. Islamic fundamentalism (By 2050, at current trends, some nations will be majority-muslim)
2. Nationalist, xenophobic fascism (Le Penists, BNP-types, etc)

Several things will happen:
1. Western Europe will be almost depopulated of Jews. Very many will leave for the US and for Israel. Both the Islamists and the fascists are anti-semitic to various degrees, fuelling the exodus.
2. The world's economic center will shift towards the Pacific Rim and Southern and Eastern Asia. This has already been happening to some extent (Since World War II). The three major economic powers will likely be China, India, and the United States (no particular order), unless one or more of them collapses (quite possible, especially for China).
3. Both the US and Europe are going to face major problems as social programs like medical care and social security become expensive. They'll either have to cut benefits, raise taxes, or engage in more unorthodox maneuvers. I don't think the current crop of politicians on both sides of the aisle in the US, let alone Europe, are really capable of this. Economic recession is likely.
4. Russia's a dead duck, unless they can toss Putin for a halfway decent leader (which is unlikely, the only real alternatives are fascists, communists, and oligarchs, none promising - the oligarchs are probably least bad ). It might not even exist as a coherent nation by 2055, but rather be like China in the 1920s. 


Eastern Europe is less certain. Will it be like Western Europe? Will it stand on its own two feet? Will they be US allies?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Did any of you who claim that the Muslims will take over ever take into account that immigration trends are temporary influxes and hardly ever permament?

I'm mostly of Swedish ancestry. How many Swedes are immigrating to the US currently? How many people from any European countries are coming currently? Yet most people in America are of such ancestry.

Furthemore back in the 20s people who were already here (the WASPs and the Germans, etc.) were worried that the incoming immigrants would "take over" them being mostly Irish, Italian, Greek and Eastern European. And they reproduced like rabbits too when they first came. Is that still the case?

Everyone knows what I think of Islam, but all of this nonsense is just an attempt by the right to flaunt their Europhobia.

BRTD made some valid points here. This whole "Europe-is-taken-over-by-Muslims" scenario is based on two (or three) assumptions:

1) The birth rate of "native" Europeans will stay exactly the same as it is now over the next five decades.

2) The birth rate of Muslim immigrants in Europe will stay exactly the same as it is now over the next five decades.

[3) The "cultural values" of Muslim immigrants in Europe will stay exactly the same as it is now for the next fifty years.]

Well, I´m not sure, but is there ANY country in the world where the birth rate of a particular group of the population remained constant over the course of half a century?


As a side note, I believe the total number of immigrants in my country was actually slightly decreasing in recent years, mainly because more foreigners left the country than come to the country. For example, the number of Turks living in Germany has dropped from 1.95 million in 2001 to 1.88 million in 2003.

Another interesting aspect is that the Jewish population is growing here... mainly because of immigrants from the former Soviet Union.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

1) The birth rate of "native" Europeans will stay exactly the same as it is now over the next five decades.

Good point. The birth rate in the U.K has gone up and down a fair bit over the past 100 years. Interestingly the areas with the highest birth rates tend to be the New Towns; and while these often have reasonably large minority populations in their centres, New Towns are usually overwhelmingly white.

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Another good point. I'm no expert on this sorta thing, but the Pakistani population in central Bradford is grow at a much slower rate than it was a while back.

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Excellent point. Like I said in some areas the younger British Pakistanis have the local accent; especially in East Lancs and the West Riding.

[afleitch]

My thoughts.

Population- Much lower, but rising again. Most of baby boomers, now in their 40s and 50s in 50 years time will be dead. The population will be more stable. Birth rates are already on the upturn now, Scotland for example has had hideously low birthrates for years and was destined to fall below 5 million for the first time this year. Now birth rates are up, but this will be offset by a larger apparent death rate as the baby boomers start dying.

There will be more Muslims, but while the next decade will see major challenges to the West, in 50 years time, with the oil states no longer commanding the respect that they curently do, coupled with a down turn in Islamic fundamentalism, there will be less tension overall. I believe that the 'white' population, already murmuring with dissent, will have snapped by 2015, political correctness will be a thing of the past and governments will be elected that will tell Muslims to pretty much 'put up or shut up.' And I think that they will.

[MaC]

Duh, haven't you guys seen "The Wall"?

HAMMER! HAMMER! HAMMER! HAMMER!

Seriously, as populism(authoritarianism) rises in America, it will likely rise in Europe.  I think the people of Europe should be thankful that (in at least most of Europe) there hasn't been a major war going on.  It seems that many nationalistic people in very small countries (with more advanced technology, than most of the world) can hardly wait to go to war.

Al, feel free to break apart my statements bit by bit...

[WMS]

Things will be harmonious in the Islamic Emirates of Europe.

[Michael Z]

God, I remember why I don't post here anymore. "Europe is socialist". "Europe will be overrun by Muslims". Yadda yadda yadda. It is absolutely IMPOSSIBLE to have a civil discussion with these people.

I'm amazed that sane people like Al and Lewis Trondheim still have the energy to put up with these c**ntrags. In any case, I'm outta here, hopefully for good this time.